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It's not easy to pick winners in the futures market, and in deep fields like college football, dealing with over 100 teams can be overwhelming. However, figuring out which squads you shouldn't bet can be just as useful.
Recently, our own Tom Casale recommended teams to invest in this season. Now let's identify a handful of programs that might be a bit overvalued to win the national title.
Here are the schools you should pump the brakes on ahead of the 2020 campaign.
Only displaying odds 75-1 or shorter
I'm not worried about Clemson during the regular season. The Tigers are No. 51 in the country in strength of schedule, and they should be double-digit favorites in every game. My concern is the playoff.
Clemson's receiving corps lacks experience. Not only did Tee Higgins, the team's leading pass-catcher last year, move on to the pros, but Justyn Ross is out for the season. When the Tigers need to play Alabama, Ohio State, or another offensive juggernaut in the postseason, can they keep pace on the scoreboard?
Defensively, four of the team's top five tacklers from last season are gone, including the do-it-all Isaiah Simmons.
There are some serious flaws on a Clemson squad that's been given 2-1 odds.
LSU's record-setting offense last year led to a championship celebration. Almost every player who played a part in that push is gone, in addition to offensive coordinator Joe Brady. That's an automatic red flag.
The Tigers are virtually starting over from scratch, and only four teams nationally return fewer starters from last season.
After losing 16 players to the draft, LSU isn't a team I'd be rushing to bet.
The love for Florida isn't surprising.
The Gators quietly won 11 games in 2019 while LSU stole the SEC spotlight. Florida's offense didn't skip a beat after losing quarterback Feleipe Franks just a few games into the year, with Kyle Trask seamlessly leading the charge, registering 2,941 passing yards and 25 touchdowns through the air in 10 starts.
Momentum likely played a role in Florida rising up the board. The market loves strong finishes, and the Gators fit the bill following their +104 scoring margin over the final four games in 2019.
I like Florida as a sleeper more than most. But at 12-1? In the SEC? I don't see much value here, especially after the Gators opened at 14-1.
Notre Dame faces little margin for error to make the playoff as an independent program, and the Fighting Irish will also deal with a difficult 2020 path.
Notre Dame's slate ranks No. 17 in strength of schedule. The team will breeze through the early stretch before playing Wisconsin, Stanford, and Pitt. In the final month, the Fighting Irish draw Clemson, Louisville, and USC.
Multiple losses are likely coming, keeping the Irish out of the playoff.
Go ahead and pencil head coach Kirk Ferentz in for a bowl game, as he's taken Iowa to one in seven straight seasons. However, he's only won double-digit games twice over the last 11 years. That's not the upside you're looking for at just 30-1 in a deep Big Ten.
The Hawkeyes were also one of the country's luckier teams in 2019, which should lead to some regression. They won 10 games, but Iowa was only deserving of 8.4 victories, according to second-order wins.
With the sixth-toughest schedule in the nation to boot, Iowa is pure fade material.
(Odds source: theScore Bet.)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.