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We kicked off the week by profiling five college football teams that would benefit if the NCAA implemented a shortened offseason. Today, we'll flip the script and highlight five more that would be hurt by the same scenario.
Here's which programs would be behind the eight ball.
I'm going to look really foolish if LSU exceeds expectations. I've mentioned the Tigers in virtually every sell-related college football piece, and my stance wouldn't change in the case of an abbreviated offseason.
The Tigers had 14 starters from last year's championship squad drafted to the NFL and return just 30% of their 2019 offensive production. Also gone is the straw that stirred the drink in Joe Brady, who parlayed the record-setting season into an offensive coordinator gig with the Carolina Panthers. The coaching staff still has the concepts, but implementing that style - or whichever scheme they choose to go with - in such a short time is an obvious obstacle with new players.
Baylor became more defense-oriented under former head coach Matt Rhule. It'll be a nice transition to Dave Aranda, who's been the defensive coordinator at LSU and Wisconsin, among other stops. But will he have the personnel to keep the Bears upright in 2020?
Baylor will be one of the least experienced defenses in the country next season. The unit brings back just 32% of last year's production, which is fourth-worst in the country - not an ideal outlook when you have to face some of the most potent offenses in college football on a weekly basis.
With all the roster and coaching turnover, there are far better options in the Big 12 than the Bears.
Mississippi State has experienced sort of a perfect storm for us to sell the Bulldogs in the case of a shortened offseason. They flip-flopped quarterbacks in head coach Joe Moorhead's system last season. Now, they'll have Mike Leach running the show with his new scheme and quarterback K.J. Costello, who'll make the transition from a pro-style offense at Stanford to the Air Raid.
It's a lot to unpack, but that's essentially the point. Bringing in Leach's coaching tendencies and a big quarterback in Costello is a breath of fresh air for a program that hasn't won more than eight games in any of the last four seasons, but it's just too much to get down in too little time. It's not as though the Bulldogs had a foundation to build on this season, anyway - they're ahead of only LSU in the conference in terms of returning production (51%), which is still No. 110 in the country.
Michigan State is another team on the downswing following a ton of turnover. Out is head coach Mark Dantoni - who held the position since 2007 - and in is Mel Tucker, who went 5-7 in his lone season at Colorado in 2019. The Spartans also lost three-year starting quarterback Brian Lewerke and bring back just 46% of last year's overall production.
Hawaii shouldn't take all that long to get adjusted to new head coach Todd Graham's system. It's a bit different than the Air Raid concepts under Nick Rolovich, but the Rainbow Warriors should still be plenty pass-happy in the Graham era. But I don't necessarily love investing in a new starting quarterback and a fresh batch of skill players to get their timing down in a state-of-the-art offense that requires so much throwing.
Hawaii was one of the luckiest teams in the country, winning 1.5 more games than expected during the regular season. Couple that with road contests at Air Force, Fresno State, and San Diego State, and the Rainbow Warriors are a program to avoid.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.