CFB national championship action report: More money on LSU, sharps eye Clemson
The two hottest teams in college football face off in Monday's national title game between LSU and Clemson. Both squads have also been betting powerhouses this year, and neither side is likely to run away with the handle ahead of kickoff.
Top-ranked LSU (-5.5) opened as a 4.5-point favorite for the game in New Orleans - a short drive from the Tigers' Baton Rouge home - and the line has touched as high as -6, with public bets flooding in on the favorite.
Roughly 60% of the money has come in on LSU, which has drawn three times as many tickets as Clemson. Parlay bettors are also grabbing the favorites at a 3-to-1 rate, which is usually a good indication of what the public might do closer to kickoff.
However, don't be so quick to dismiss Clemson, as the defending champions have beaten opponents by an average of 38.1 points over the school's last nine games, with an 8-1 record against the spread in that time. Clemson has also covered eight of its last nine games as an underdog since 2014, including a 3-0 ATS record in national championship games.
Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, says there could be compelling line movement in the hours before the game.
"If we get within a couple hours of kickoff and we still see money coming in at a high rate on LSU, I could see this get up to -6.5" Rood said.
"I could see the sharps taking +5.5 and it closing +4.5 just as easily," he added. "Clemson has been in this spot before, and they've been backed heavily in this spot."
Despite the early love for LSU - which Rood says has been a public darling since beating Florida in Week 7 - big-money bettors prefer Clemson. One sharp grabbed the Tigers at +6, while monitored bettors have stayed away from favored LSU, Rood said.
Rood is also seeing twice as many tickets on the under in the totals market, which is surprising given the way LSU's offense looked in the team's semifinal win over Oklahoma. He expects the public will eventually balance the books on the total - which hasn't moved off the opening number of 69.5 - but there's still evidently a level of trust in Clemson's defense to slow down Heisman winner Joe Burrow.
"I know that there's an appetite out there for Clemson, so I think we can regulate where we stand," Rood said about the early side action. "I doubt from our perspective that we'll get to -7."
Because of Clemson's past success in the title game, many bettors are turning to the moneyline, which is +190 for Dabo Swinney's group. Laying points on the favorite and taking the 'dog on the moneyline has been a common approach in championship contests this year, including in nearly all of the conference title matchups.
"Generally with this kind of game, a lot of people are going to take a shot on the moneyline," Rood said. "Especially since Clemson has produced in this spot before."
Who could forget the 2017 title game, when Clemson beat Alabama with one second left as a 6.5-point underdog? Then in 2019, the Tigers blew out the Crimson Tide as 5.5-point underdogs. During Clemson's 8-1 ATS run as an underdog, six of those victories were outright wins.
So far, moneyline action is tracking fairly even for both sides, which Rood says is uncommon when a big favorite like LSU is involved. In some ways, that speaks to how confident bettors are following LSU's recent run, even in the face of Clemson's 29-game win streak.
Still, savvy bettors often grab points in a clash this close. If he was betting, Rood says he would side with the sharps.
"LSU's had a great season, great QB, but there's something to be said for being in this spot," Rood said. "Clemson's been there. I don't think either one of them will get too far away from the other, so taking points is the side I would prefer to be on."
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.