CFB national championship: Clemson vs. LSU odds, trends, and best bet

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The college football national championship game is just days away and will feature a star-studded tilt between LSU and Clemson. Here's everything you need to know from a betting perspective.

Odds

Following Clemson's semifinal win over Ohio State, respected shops were on the same page, opening LSU as a consensus 3-point favorite for the final. Meanwhile, the total ranged anywhere from 69.5 to 72.

Now, after a flurry of LSU money, the SEC powerhouse is sitting at -5.5 with the total at 69.5. Of course, Clemson closed as a 5-point underdog last season ... and we all know how that turned out.

Betting trends

You rarely see a team of Clemson's stature consistently rake against the spread. Despite garnering plenty of public action on a weekly basis, the reigning national champion is currently on a blistering 20-6 run ATS, has gone 10-1 ATS in its last 11 bowl games, and is 7-1 ATS over its last eight contests against teams with winning records.

Meanwhile, LSU has covered five of its last six non-conference games, each of its last four matchups against teams with winning records, and 11 of its last 16 overall. With a revamped offense, LSU has also gone 11-5-1 to the over in its last 17 contests and 6-1-1 to the over in its last eight non-conference games.

X-factor

This matchup has everything you could want as both a bettor and a casual fan. LSU features a Heisman-winning quarterback in Joe Burrow, two 1,000-yard receivers, and three wideouts with double-digit touchdown catches. Defensively, the program boasts a plethora of future first-round talents, including Jim Thorpe Award winner Grant Delpit and star freshman cornerback Derek Stingley Jr.

On the Clemson side, Trevor Lawrence has tossed 22 touchdowns and zero interceptions over his last seven games. The Clemson offense also features two stud receivers - Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross - with a combined 21 touchdown catches on the year, and a running back in Travis Etienne who rushed for 8.2 yards per carry during the regular season. And defensively, no unit gave up fewer points per contest than Clemson did in 2019.

With two elite passing attacks and defenses, it's easy to overlook the running game. Apologies for burying the lede, dear reader, but there's only one correct answer for Monday's X-factor: LSU running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

LSU didn't need much from a banged-up Edwards-Helaire against Oklahoma in the semis as the offense scored at will. But with the star running back healthy for the final, he's going to create arguably the biggest mismatch on the field on a consistent basis. Guarding Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and Terrace Marshall would already be tough enough for Clemson; add in a pass-catching back like Edwards-Helaire, who was a nightmare for SEC defensive coordinators during the regular season, and LSU should have at least one favorable matchup on almost every offensive snap.

Best bet

Over 69.5

The question coming into the college football playoff was how Clemson's defense would hold up against an elite opponent. Due to playing in a weak ACC, the program didn't get much of a tune-up at any point during the regular season. And while the defense did make adjustments as the Ohio State game went on, the Buckeyes also averaged close to 6 yards per play. Running back J.K. Dobbins was well on his way to a 200-yard rushing performance before suffering an injury and the Ohio State receivers were creating plenty of separation. It was a great way for Clemson to prepare for LSU, but given the amount of star talent the latter possesses offensively, it's tough to envision Clemson's defense being able to slow down Burrow and Co. for a full four quarters.

Meanwhile, Clemson posted 29 points against a top-tier Ohio State defense despite Ross and Higgins combining for just 80 receiving yards. They both have the size advantage to make plays against an LSU secondary that was surprisingly leaky at various points of the season.

All in all, we should be in for quite the track meet between arguably the two most explosive offenses in the country.

Buckle up.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKoIodziej.