College football Week 13 over/under best bets: Expect points in Michigan-Indiana
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Every week during the college football season, we'll cover our five best over/under bets. Let's take a look at Week 13:
Michigan at Indiana
Total: 53.5
Remember when Michigan was supposed to be the LSU of this season? The offense landed coordinator Josh Gattis from Alabama and all the key pieces from last year's skill corps returned. Well, it took a while, but the Wolverines are finally hitting their stride. Quarterback Shea Patterson is playing at a high level, wide receivers Donovan Peoples-Jones, Ronnie Bell, Tarik Black, and Nico Collins are getting more involved, and the offense as a whole is taking care of the football. For the season, the unit is averaging a decent 5.6 yards per play and has scored 38 or more points in four of the last five games.
You know who's been even better on a down-to-down basis? Indiana, at 6.1 yards per play. The Hoosiers are continuing to improve under offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer, who was recently nominated for the Broyles Award. The Hoosiers haven't had any trouble moving the ball against some of the better defensive teams in the Big Ten, hanging 31 on Michigan State, 34 on Northwestern, and 27 on Penn State. Those teams rank No. 17, No. 20, and No. 12 in defensive SP+, respectively. I don't think Michigan will present any challenges that Indiana hasn't seen to date.
Houston at Tulsa
Total: 58.5
It's always enticing to play Houston over the total. The secondary is awful and the offense typically contributes enough points. However, I'm skeptical about going that route on Saturday after watching the Cougars' performance against Memphis. Despite usually featuring an up-tempo offense, Houston didn't mind huddling early in the game and taking between 30 and 35 seconds off the play clock. Overall, the Cougars posted just 256 yards, and they didn't score an offensive touchdown in the final three quarters.
Tulsa isn't as explosive offensively, so I wouldn't be surprised if Houston plays at a slower pace for long stretches. Meanwhile, the Golden Hurricane might not have quarterback Zach Smith, which would be a huge blow to their offense.
Pick: Under
Cal at Stanford
Total: 42
Picking the Cal-USC under was a swing and a miss last week, but perhaps the Golden Bears will fare better against an offense that isn't as athletic on the outside. Stanford has averaged a whopping 7.1 yards per play over its last three games, but that's easy to do against Arizona, Colorado, and Washington State. Additionally, Cal's defense travels well; the unit has held eight of its last nine opponents to the team total under away from home.
Pick: Under
Minnesota at Northwestern
Total: 39.5
I don't necessarily agree with the move from 38 to 39.5. Then again, I'm not sure it's fair for any 2019 total to sit in the mid-30s. Regardless, I still like the under in this spot.
Northwestern's struggles on offense have been well-documented. After posting a brutal 5.2 yards per play against one-win UMass last week, the Wildcats are now ranked 128th in that department. Somehow, they actually moved up a spot! Someone should throw a party in Evansville.
This could also be a matchup where Minnesota comes out flat. The Golden Gophers are coming off back-to-back emotional games and are fresh off their first loss of the season. Starting quarterback Tanner Morgan's status is up in the air after he suffered a concussion, but I think Minnesota's offense might need to do most of the work to get over this total. That could be tough against a Northwestern defense that ranks No. 20 in SP+.
Pick: Under
Air Force at New Mexico
Total: 55
There were better numbers earlier in the week, but I still see slight value in the under when Air Force takes on New Mexico.
The Lobos have been a good over bet when they've been able to run the ball. Their quarterback play has been spotty, while they've slipped into the top 40 in rushing yards per game. However, as 22-point underdogs in this matchup, they'll either be taken out of their game script by having to throw, or they'll run right into the teeth of an Air Force defense that's allowed just 91.1 yards per game on the ground this season.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.