The top 10 betting plays for Week 5 of the college football season

I told you that my 90-0 streak through to the end of the college football season would start last Saturday. Turns out I'm a fraud.

That streak will be lowered to 89-1 after Liberty and North Texas went under the total, making Week 4 a 9-1 week and perhaps the first time some of you thought I had access to the Grays Sports Almanac out of "Back to the Future: Part II." I, in fact, do not, and just have to lose some games to avoid the books cutting me off.

Just kidding. Let's win more money than we lose in Week 5. As always, be sure to shop around for the best prices.

Top Plays

Bowling Green at Georgia Tech

Pick: Over 65

After bending the knee to Clemson, there isn't a better opponent for Georgia Tech to completely obliterate than Bowling Green and their defense that can't stop a soul on the ground. The Falcons are allowing 333.5 rushing yards per game this season.

Georgia Tech is a tricky team when it comes to totals. The Yellow Jackets' offense isn't made for high-scoring games, and the defense isn't bad enough to inflate totals. But Georgia Tech has been able to produce shootouts when the situation calls for it. The team has flown over the number in nine of its last 10 regular-season games with a 60-plus total.

West Virginia at Texas Tech

Pick: Over 72.5

I'll get square here and gamble against Texas Tech's defense stringing together consecutive above-average performances.

West Virginia's defense still hasn't been tested after facing Tennessee and Kansas State, two opponents with stale offenses. The Mountaineers' offense, on the other hand, has many downfield threats that Texas Tech will have to deal with in the secondary. The Red Raiders have faced a pair of teams that love stretching the field vertically - Ole Miss and Houston - and their defensive backs simply aren't good enough to keep the ball in front of them.

There could be some wind issues on Saturday, but likely not enough to warrant any caution on the total. There's just too much firepower and potential quick-strike scoring to pass on here, even at a number above 70.

Baylor at Oklahoma

Pick: Over 68

This is another game that should play up to Big 12 standards. The Baylor-Oklahoma days back when Robert Griffin III, Bryce Petty, and Baker Mayfield were quarterbacking the rivalry were so wild that totals often reached the upper 70s.

Baylor's offense has been a little tamer and less wide open under new coaching, but the unit is still a productive one that should be forced to throw the ball often on Saturday.

Oklahoma's post-Mayfield offense has still been humming. The lone outlier came last week, when Army did a tremendous job of limiting Oklahoma's possessions, and the Sooners only had seven in regulation time. They were effective in their 28-21 win, but the Sooners just didn't have enough opportunities. They still averaged a whopping 8.7 yards per play, and rank second in the nation at 8.2 on the season. They also turned the ball over on downs at the Army one-yard line and missed a 33-yard field goal.

Oklahoma's offense gets a perfect matchup in Week 5. Expect the possessions, yards, and points to skyrocket on Saturday against Baylor, a team that will have to play catch up through the air as 23.5-point underdogs.

Indiana at Rutgers

Pick: Rutgers +17

Betting on a team that has been outscored 149-30 in its last three games is a plug-your-nose type of play.

As if Kansas trouncing them by 39 points in Week 3 wasn't enough of a wake-up call, Rutgers doubled down and lost by 29 to Buffalo at home last Saturday. Things aren't trending in the right direction.

Then again, it can't get much worse.

Head coach Chris Ash continues to tell the media that his team hasn't quit on the season, and I actually believe him. However, I'm not betting on Rutgers here. I'm betting against Indiana.

For the second straight week, I watched all four quarters of Indiana football in Week 4 and saw that there's still no reason to fear the Hoosiers' offense. Coming off a loss to Michigan State under the lights at home and having to go on the road as a double-digit favorite, Indiana shouldn't come close to bringing the intensity it brought last Saturday.

Syracuse at Clemson

Pick: Clemson team total over 45

Swapping out Kelly Bryant for Trevor Lawrence was the best short- and long-term move Clemson could make.

The Tigers thrived for years with Deshaun Watson, a dual-threat quarterback, and perhaps wanted to follow that blueprint with Bryant. Now a true pocket passer will lead the offence, allowing Clemson's batch of star-studded receivers to get involved, an element that was lacking with Bryant under center.

The Tigers don't have a Sammy Watkins, Martavis Bryant, or Mike Williams - that go-to receiver in the running for the Biletnikoff Award - but collectively, their receiving corps is ready to go off. We've seen glimpses of Tee Higgins, Amari Rodgers, and Justyn Ross making big splash plays, and I expect the targets for all three underclassmen will increase with Lawrence under center.

Clemson facing a below-average Syracuse defense at home to get revenge on after last season's upset loss provides an ideal matchup after their changing of the guard at quarterback.

The one knock on Clemson - if you even want to call it one - is that its offense hasn't been as explosive as expected.

That's about to change.

Extra Points

BYU at Washington

Pick: Washington team total under 31

BYU's defense might be the best-kept secret in the country.

The Cougars haven't been scared to face good offenses this season, holding Arizona to 23 points and Wisconsin to 21, and recording road wins in both games. BYU hasn't allowed a team to score 30-plus points since Week 9 of last season, and Washington is still in an offensive funk, averaging just 21.3 points per game against FBS opponents in 2018.

Florida at Mississippi State

Pick: Mississippi State -7

I would have slotted the Bulldogs as double-digit favorites, and perhaps that's a slight overreaction to the Gators' loss to Kentucky, which is a tough team.

Starkville is a difficult place to play at night, and from a talent perspective on both sides, Mississippi State holds clear advantages. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bulldogs welcome back Dan Mullen by handing him a blowout loss. The entire Florida staff is going to be hearing cowbells in their nightmares.

Stanford at Notre Dame

Pick: Notre Dame -5.5

Stanford is in a pretty lucky position. The Oregon Ducks were essentially begging the Cardinal to steal last week's game in Eugene. The final result was a product of Oregon giving Stanford the game, instead of the visiting team's will to come back.

Notre Dame, meanwhile, is another ranked team that opted for a quarterback switch, replacing Brandon Wimbush with Ian Book. He, like Lawrence, is more valuable to the point spread for his team. I still don't love Notre Dame, but this is a perfect matchup for the Fighting Irish.

Utah at Washington State

Pick: Washington State +1.5

The wrong team is favored in this one, albeit not by much. Still, it's enough to take a second look at Washington State. Utah still hasn't put it all together offensively, and a road game against a team that's improved tenfold on defense isn't an ideal breakout spot. I recommend looking at the short home 'dog.

Army at Buffalo

Pick: Buffalo -7.5

I'll fade Army coming off that near-monumental upset over Oklahoma, and side with Buffalo. There's a ton of love pouring in on the Black Knights this week, but I wouldn't be so quick to place my eggs in their basket based only off taking Oklahoma to the wire.

Top plays: 10-9
Overall record: 21-19

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.