Buy low, sell high: Great betting spots for Week 4 in college football

A quarter of the way into the college football season, the market still seems to be hyping up certain teams while not wanting to touch others with a 10-foot pole.

Week 3 was another prime example of market overreaction: Would Maryland have been laying 17 points over Temple if not for an upset win over Texas and a blowout over lowly Bowling Green? Probably not. The Terps lost outright ... by 21. Did we put too much stock into Pitt's 51-6 loss to Penn State on a national stage the week prior? The Panthers were a great buy-low spot as a home underdog against a banged up Georgia Tech team playing consecutive road games, edging the Yellow Jackets 24-19.

We're still early enough into the season to buy low and sell high on teams based on how the market is gauging past performance, therefore skewing lines. Here are some potential buy-low, sell-high spots for Week 4:

Buy: Arizona -6.5 (at Oregon State)

Remember when the Wildcats were relevant? It feels like centuries ago.

New head coach Kevin Sumlin's first win with the program felt more like a consolation prize than anything. After whiffing in the home opener against BYU and falling flat in a 27-point road loss to Houston, a 62-31 rout of Southern Utah with everyone else either tuned into the Washington-Utah game last week or dead asleep at midnight ET doesn't exactly scream "Gatorade bath."

That window of relevancy for Arizona and preseason Heisman hopeful quarterback Khalil Tate has closed at a torrid pace. But the Wildcats can continue their trend upward against Oregon State, which is as good a fade as Arizona is a play in Week 4.

The Beavers were expected to finish in the Pac-12 cellar this season with a projected 2.5 total wins. Still early in the year, it looks right on par. Oregon State heads into Week 4 with a 1-2 record, off a game in which a comeback went for naught as a 34-yard go-ahead field goal to beat Nevada was unsuccessful.

Now, Arizona, projected as a 15-point winner over Oregon State per S&P+ before the season, gets a favorable number against a team coming off a heartbreaking road loss in what may have been its last shot at a win this season.

Already counting out the Wildcats in 2018? Don't, at least for another week.

Buy: Michigan State -4.5 (at Indiana)

Michigan State has officially used up all its mulligans this season.

After being caught off guard in a 38-31 win over Utah State in the opener, Michigan State delivered its second consecutive poor performance in Week 2 and paid the price with a loss at Arizona State. Standing opposite the Spartans in Week 4 is undefeated Indiana, which only has one win over Michigan State in its last nine tries.

But that has nothing to do with why you should take a second look at MSU on Saturday.

The Sun Devils may have tapped into the recipe to beat Michigan State: vertical passing. Had it not been for quarterback Manny Wilkins overthrowing receiver after receiver, Arizona State likely wouldn't have needed a time-expiring field goal to edge the Spartans in Week 2.

In trusting Indiana's offense to beat the Spartans down the field, you're not trusting quarterback Peyton Ramsey as much as you are offensive coordinator Mike DeBord. His style features a lot of quick-hit routes and wide receiver swings, a no-no against a swarming defense like Michigan State. I'm not sure the Hoosiers have the downfield threats to beat the Spartans on offense.

It'll be another big test for Michigan State - a night game in Bloomington, where things tend to get a bit weird in Big Ten play. But I'd trust the most experienced team in the country off a bye week to finally make amends for two straight underwhelming performances.

Buy: Miami (OH) -5 (at Bowling Green)

The RedHawks just cannot catch a break.

After losing no fewer than a billion games by one score last season, Miami (Ohio) lost another to start 2018. In Week 2, the RedHawks lost 21-0 while playing in a monsoon. Last week, they had to go on the road and play a Big Ten team, which ended in a resounding 26-3 loss.

The 0-3 RedHawks are still, in my estimated guess, below their fair-market price at Bowling Green as five-point chalk. I don't believe Miami (Ohio) is as bad as the box scores indicate; the team has drawn the short end of the stick on a weekly basis.

Sell: North Texas -14 (at Liberty)

I'd be willing to create a 100-page PowerPoint slide on how dreadful Arkansas' offense is, but it can be summed up in just two plays: One that shows the running backs run right into their offensive linemen for 2 yards, and the other a fly route in which the quarterback overthrows his receiver by about 30 yards after the ball skims the bottom of a cloud.

Not to discredit North Texas' win over an SEC team last weekend but whew, the Razorbacks have a lot of work to do. After forcing two turnovers in plus territory and scoring on one of the craziest punt return sequences you'll ever see in the first quarter, the Mean Green never looked back.

That, and Arkansas flat-out quit.

So far, North Texas has whipped an SMU team with no offense, some school called Incarnate Word, and arguably the worst team in the SEC. I don't think the Mean Green deserve to be laying two touchdowns, even against a team like Liberty (sorry, Flames).

Sell: Cincinnati -7.5 (vs. Ohio)

Cincinnati is off to a hot start at 3-0. However, just how impressive were the wins over UCLA, Miami (Ohio) and Alabama A&M?

UCLA is 0-3 and has shown zero signs of competence. The Bearcats, again, beat a now-0-3 Miami (Ohio) team in torrential downpour. Alabama A&M is, well, Alabama A&M.

You would be well within your right to ask if the wrong team was favored in this one. But after Cincy's start out of the gates and Ohio's 14-point loss to an ACC team, there's no question that the line has been skewed in favor of the undefeated Bearcats.

Getting the hook on Ohio +7.5 feels like theft based on how we'd project these two teams before the season.

Sell: Kansas +7.5 (at Baylor)

"Kansas is just a basketball school," they said. How dare you underestimate the Jayhawks football team like that?

The Jayhawks aren't garnering any real expectations after a 2-1 start and have likely reached their peak after two wins by a combined 65 points.

In a faux Big 12 Toilet Bowl from a year ago, a 1-11 Baylor squad nabbed its only victory against the Jayhawks by 29 points. S&P+ had this season's contest as a 14.5-point win for the home side, but the number opened up at 9.5 and has since dropped. The Kansas Effect! Pummeling FBS powerhouses like Central Michigan and Rutgers will do that.

Betting on teams that have underachieved is tough, just as it is to fade those that have looked good. But in treating teams like assets, know when the time is right to buy or sell.

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from 'Rounders' and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.