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The top 10 bets for Week 1 of the college football season

theScore

There's nothing quite like a fresh slate.

College football may have technically kicked off a week ago, but it isn't really the start of a new year until I see the Washington State flag flying through the air on College GameDay and Lee Corso dancing with the Notre Dame mascot after picking the Fighting Irish to beat Michigan.

Come Saturday, it's officially official: Christmas for sports bettors.

The opening week is as thrilling as it is a crapshoot, so I suggest lowering wager sizes early on before getting a read on programs' identities in 2018. As always, shop around the books for the best numbers and prices.

Without further ado, here's which plays deserve second looks for Week 1 (odds provider in brackets):

Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech

Pick: Over 67 (BetOnline)

Real sharp, I know.

The Red Raiders' decade-long habit of trading points back and forth finally came to a halt last season after head coach Kliff Kingsbury essentially admitted he'd been placing all his eggs in his offense's basket. He promised a conscious effort would be made on the opposite side of the ball.

Kingsbury and defensive coordinator David Gibbs made good on that promise in 2017, boasting a defense that forced 29 turnovers and chopped roughly two touchdowns off its 16 points per game allowed average. Texas Tech went on to sail under the total in five of the last six games of the regular season.

That's all fine and dandy for the Red Raiders moving forward, but I'm still expecting a track meet at NRG Stadium on Saturday.

Ole Miss can no longer rely on quarterback Shea Patterson, who will lead Michigan against Notre Dame in Saturday's marquee matchup (more on that later). Stepping into his shadow for the Rebels and head coach Matt Luke will be Jordan Ta'amu, who has one of the nation's top receiving corps at his disposal and plays in a quarterback-friendly system that shouldn't present too much of a learning curve despite his inexperience at the collegiate level.

Surefire first-rounder A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, and DaMarkus Lodge combined for 155 catches, 2,596 yards, and 25 touchdowns last season. Even with Texas Tech's improvement on the defensive side of the ball, there are clear mismatches and multiple options for Ta'amu, and I expect Ole Miss to keep the ball in the air the entire afternoon.

As for Texas Tech's offense, it'll be just another Saturday in the Air Raid, chock-full of quarterback hand signals from McLane Carter, 12-play possessions that chew up 1:06 of clock, and what I can only hope is a limited amount of red-zone interceptions.

Oregon State @ Ohio State

Pick: Ohio State -38 (BetOnline)

Oregon State and Ohio State meet in one of the biggest talent discrepancies you'll find this season between Power Five teams.

Off the field, the Buckeyes hit their first obstacle of the season before even suiting up, as Urban Meyer was suspended for the first three games. But how much is a head coach worth against the spread? Not much, apparently.

"It's business as usual as bettors are getting down on Ohio State in Week 1," Will Bernanke, lead analyst at CG Analytics in Las Vegas, told theScore. "Ohio State opened -37.5 and they are now -39."

It's understandable to think a team might be distracted amid all that negative national attention, but this is a talented Ohio State team playing on its home turf against the lowest-rated Power Five team in the country.

UMass @ Boston College

Pick: Over 63 (Bookmaker)

I thought this total at 59 was a bit soft prior to the season, and UMass' 63-point outburst against Duquesne last weekend was enough for bettors to buy into the Minutemen's offense, with the total climbing by four points.

It's their opponent who I expect to have its way on offense Saturday, though.

Boston College owns a distinct advantage in the trenches on offense, which should slingshot sophomore rusher A.J. Dillon for big gains all afternoon. Dillon saw a sizable workload as a freshman in '17, churning out 1,589 yards on 300 carries with 14 touchdowns.

As for UMass, I'm not expecting 63, or even half of that, this time around - just enough to get this one over the total.

Washington vs. Auburn

Pick: Over 48.5 (Bookmaker)

This is more of a flier play than anything after the total dropped two points off the opener at 50.5. Unlike Ole Miss/Texas Tech and UMass/Boston College, I don't expect a fast pace or frequent chunk plays given both teams' defenses, but I also don't want to discredit the athleticism on either offense.

Michigan at Notre Dame

Pick: Michigan +1.5 (Pinnacle)

Michigan is truly missing the "it" factor. That was tough to capture last season as Jim Harbaugh's team was in the midst of a "rebuild," consistently expending freshmen and sophomores on both sides of the ball.

What Michigan found in its experimentation was that the defense had the potential to be special. The Wolverines return nine of their 11 starters from last season. They boast two players on the line in Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich who combined for 14 sacks and 30.5 tackles for loss, as well as Devin Bush Jr., who will be your favorite collegiate linebacker by season's end after racking up 95 tackles (10 for loss) and 5.5 sacks.

Defensive coordinator Don Brown will send the house at Notre Dame quarterback Brandon Wimbush, and that includes viper linebacker Khaleke Hudson, who posted 16 tackles for loss, seven sacks, and two picks. Also, I'm burying the lede here. I have yet to mention the best cornerback tandem in the country in Lavert Hill and David Long.

The key for Notre Dame on offense will be creativity. But do the Fighting Irish have the playmakers? They lost two of their top wide receivers from last season, as well as running back Josh Adams, who ran for 1,430 yards, with roughly 70 percent of them coming after contact. Also gone are Notre Dame's top two offensive linemen from a season ago in Quenton Nelson and Mike McGlinchey.

Offensively, Michigan just needs a quarterback to get by. That should speak volumes about how detrimental last season's quarterback room was at times. Now, the Wolverines have a huge arm and playmaker in Patterson.

All in all, I wouldn't be surprised if this game started slow for the Wolverines. But in a clear mismatch on defense and with the ability to give Patterson and the offense short fields, Michigan gets my vote in this newly sparked rivalry.

Tennessee vs. West Virginia

Pick: Tennessee +9.5/Over 61.5 (Bookmaker)

West Virginia went from being one of my favorite plays of the week, to a no-play, to moving into the rearview, with my interest shifting to Tennessee.

West Virginia's offense needs no introduction. We already know quarterback Will Grier and wide receiver David Sills. Now, let me introduce you to Tennessee's, led by offensive coordinator Tyson Helton. Hired by new head coach and former Alabama assistant Jeremy Pruitt, Helton played a part in Western Kentucky's offensive surge in 2015 as the OC/QB coach, then helped groom Sam Darnold at USC.

The Mountaineers will put up points, but the value here is with Tennessee's offense, as Helton's system should create mismatches on a shoddy West Virginia defense.

I'll double dip on both the Volunteers and the over here.

Marshall @ Miami (OH)

Pick: Miami +2 -108 (BetOnline)

I'm particularly high on the RedHawks after a year in which they couldn't win a close game to save their lives. I'll take a shot on the home 'dog.

Washington State @ Wyoming

Pick: Washington State PK (Pinnacle)

I would've liked Wyoming in this spot before its Week 0 game against New Mexico State, which had the Cowboys snagging 3.5 points against a Washington State team notorious for losing to inferior opponents earlier this season.

Now, the number has crossed 3 and has moved all the way to a pick 'em, where I feel there's officially value on Mike Leach.

Louisville vs. Alabama

Pick: Under 61.5

I'm not sure it's worth anything, but Nick Saban on a neutral field has been the recipe for easy overs in the recent past.

Still, this number has gotten too high (it opened at 54).

I think some are getting lazy in pegging Louisville's offense as a dud without Lamar Jackson. The unit is sure to regress, but I don't think it'll be as significant a drop-off as most think.

That is, once ACC play starts.

Alabama isn't exactly the defense you want to start your era off against if you're Louisville quarterback Jawon Pass. I don't expect a slog here but 61.5 feels like a ton of points, even with an Alabama offense that could have its way.

As always, best of luck with your action over the weekend and remember to tread lightly as the season gets underway!

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from Rounders and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)

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