Heisman Film Room: Will Grier is the ultimate wild-card candidate

Nobody's Heisman chances are more volatile than Will Grier's.

Grier is the top returning quarterback in the country. He marshals a fun-n-gun West Virginia offense with dangerous skill-position weapons that are all sorts of effective. The issue, though, is what surrounds them.

The offensive line is up and down. The team has no depth. And the Mountaineers' defense, which finished 96th(!) in defensive S&P+ last year, is set to feature the same rotating morass of mediocrity.

That's why West Virgina finished just 7-6 last season despite Grier being really, really good. And 2018 could play out the same way, as the Mountaineers' schedule is brutal - anywhere from three-to-tens wins is possible.

So, to compete for the most prestigious honor in collegiate sports, Grier will need to keep overcoming obstacles that other top contenders aren't saddled with.

That said, his 2017 season gets better with every viewing. Grier quickly mastered coach Dana Holgorsen's bombs-away approach and was a perfect fit for the offense. While not an overly athletic quarterback, he's adept at slinging the ball all over the field from the top of his drop, and led the nation in passer rating when kept clean in the pocket, per Pro Football Focus.

Let's begin with a look at the slingshot delivery from a man of a thousand release points:

Typically, quarterbacks with that kind of delivery release the ball like a baseball pitcher. They go all the way back, as if they're loading up to launch a javelin, while dropping their arm angle. By the time they've whipped their arm forward, the stroke has become so elongated that defenders can figure out where the ball is going.

Not Grier. His has an unorthodox three-quarters stroke, with more than enough power to get the ball where it needs to be. It sometimes arrives from weird angles, and can take defenders - and even his own receivers - by surprise. It gets on them a tick quicker than they're use to, and it's carrying a lot more mustard.

Below, you can see the football simply explode out of Grier's hand:

And Grier was the best off-platform thrower in the country in 2017. Nobody could contort their body or throw from wonky angles like the West Virginia man.

In fact - and this is not hyperbole - Grier is as good an off-platform thrower as I've ever studied.

Look. This is so impressive it's almost dumb:

I mean, come on! This was a timing drop, but West Virginia's left guard got whipped inside, creating instant pressure. So, Grier edged back with a free rusher charging into his face. With both feet in the air, he hurled the ball from the far hash to the sideline. Money.

This wasn't a random occurrence. Grier is just as accurate off-platform as when he's able to sync his eyes and lower body:

Again, Grier was moving backward on that release. A free blitzer came careening in off the edge, and it seemed impossible to squeeze the ball to the receiver zipping across the field. Grier did anyway, and the ball hit his receiver in the chest, but he just couldn't grab it.

Grier has also nailed the most challenging of throws - the so-called "bucket" throw, which is dropping the ball behind the linebackers and in front of the safeties. It takes precision, anticipation, and an understanding of what throw to make against different schemes and the leverage that each defender has within their coverage.

Here, Grier attacks a split-safety look with the defense manning up underneath:

Once again, he was forced off-platform, and this time he was on his tiptoes. Regardless, Grier dropped the ball perfectly over the slot defender, who had inside position.

The placement was so good that Grier's receiver caught the ball before the safeties converged on the spot, and then capped it with a touchdown scamper. It probably should have been a sack.

That level of precision and placement extends farther down the field:

Grier ranked fourth in the country in passing yards on throws of more than 20 yards, finishing with a total of 1,506 combined on those plays. He tacked on 16 touchdowns of 20 yards or more, the nation's highest total.

A lot of that was due to quick decision-making.

Grier's not always right, but at least he gets on with it in a hurry. That's partly due to the one-read, half-field, triple-option nature of Holgorsen's offense, which often features preselected reads based on the defensive box count or the movement of a singular defender. That offensive style makes it easier to drop and select a receiving option to hit on time and in rhythm.

Still, even with multi-layered, more complex designs, Grier has shown an uncanny ability to scan the field and get the ball out fast. He does an excellent job of using his eyes and slight head fakes to manipulate deep defenders. He can move them off a spot when needed, or hold them in place before ripping a throw the other way:

Holgorsen's offense has long been considered a bastion of simplicity. At the macro level, that's still true, as the Mountaineers will run the same play repeatedly until you stop it. But with Grier in the fold, Holgorsen has featured more full-field concepts than straightforward run-pass options (RPOs).

Holgorsen likes to use a tight 3x1 formation (three receivers on one side) to attack the now-ubiquitous quarters-coverage used in the Big 12 (four deep defenders playing in matchup zones):

It’s a nifty look. West Virginia uses an extreme "plus split" (receivers outside of the numbers) to stretch defenses horizontally so the offense can knife through it vertically. Rather than spreading the three receivers out at equal distances, though - like a traditional "trips" look - Holgorsen likes to ram them together. They don't quite join forces in a bunched look, but the effect is similar.

There's a method to the madness. Grier can isolate specific defenders or attack a certain patch of grass. And the defense is stretched to its absolute maximum laterally. Punching holes in any coverage becomes easier.

The accuracy and effectiveness of the passing game also opens up room to run the ball against a lighter box - the hallmark of spread and Air Raid offenses. When teams back away to stop Grier's deep ball, he simply options to a running play. Easy yards:

Grier operates this chess game at a near-PHD level, both before and after the snap. The Heisman Trust may not value such subtleties, but the NFL will.

Of course, Grier isn't perfect. There are some pretty obvious - yet correctable flaws - in his game.

He tends to make bad decisions when he’s flustered. He has decent feet in the pocket, but they're not great. He's bouncy, but he's not an explosive athlete. He wants to get the ball out quickly instead of moving around.

There have been some glimpses of real potential when Grier has moved around the pocket before throwing:

However, those kinds of plays have typically come against inferior opponents. When Grier has faced the best of the best - with the speed of plays ratcheted up, both mentally and physically - he's often reverted back to his old ways: planting his feet and looking to get rid of the ball ASAP.

And despite shredding pressure with his eyes and arm - Grier led the nation in passer rating as a thrower against the blitz last season - he often struggled with awareness in the pocket. There are concerns about his ability to avoid oncoming defenders; he's just as likely to move up into a twist and take a sack as he is to sidestep and avoid it:

Due to his natural abilities, Grier also suffers from a distinct case of arm arrogance. He believes he can make any throw, because he can. And so, he tries to make every throw.

When his decisions are bad, they are downright vulgar:

Above, Grier read a three-deep coverage. He knew his outermost receiver (bottom of the screen) had a go route. If the corner played with outside leverage, the only throw Grier could make would be toward the back shoulder at the front pylon. So, he attempted it.

It was clearly a predetermined throw. Grier locked in on the middle safety to seal him in place before shifting his eyes toward the boundary. He paused. He should have known the throw wasn't on. His receiver had practically forfeited the route.

Still, Grier launched the throw, believing he could put enough oomph on the ball to get it beyond the defender. Nope. It should have been picked.

That confidence also makes Grier one of the all-time leaders in my totally fictitious "No-no-no-yes" throws category. I mean, some of his plays are just flat-out kooky:

West Virginia will surely live with the bad turnovers when they goes along with that kind of playmaking excellence.

Those also happen to be the plays that garner all kinds of internet views and national attention. Anybody looking to win the Heisman on a tier-two team in the Big 12 is going to need as many eyeballs on them as possible.

Luckily for Grier, he's must-see TV, and if he's able to guide West Virginia to a 10-win season with a pair of signature performances and a raft of bonkers highlights, he'll have as compelling a Heisman case as anybody in the country.