NCAAF opening line report: Week 11 betting opens with massive line move
Covers.com is the biggest and best source for sports betting information, providing unrivaled and original content sports bettors cannot live without.
It’s the final month of college football’s regular season, and the push for the big prize – a spot in the four-team College Football Playoff – is getting turned on its head with each passing week. Covers checks in on the opening lines and early action for four key Week 11 matchups, with insights from Dave Mason, brand manager for offshore sportsbook BetOnline.ag.
No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs at No. 10 Auburn Tigers (-2)
Georgia is No. 2 in the polls, but No. 1 where it really matters – in the prestigious CFP ranking. The Bulldogs (9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS) remained on a collision course with Alabama for the SEC title by dispatching South Carolina 24-10 on Saturday, though they fell way short of cashing as 23.5-point chalk.
Auburn (7-2 SU, 4-3-2 ATS) could certainly upset Georgia’s apple cart this week. The Tigers’ two losses this season weren’t bad ones by any means – at Clemson and at Louisiana State – and they’ve won and covered on the road in their last two games. On Saturday at Texas A&M, Auburn won 42-27 as a 14.5-point favorite.
“Early bettors got some great value, as top-ranked Georgia quickly moved from small ‘dogs to 2.5-point favorites,” Mason said. “Georgia is by far the most popular bet on the entire betting board so far, with 93 percent of early bettors on the Dawgs. Even with the line move, bettors are still pounding Georgia and are counting on them to cover and beat Auburn for the sixth time in the last seven years.”
No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 6 Miami Hurricanes (+1.5)
Notre Dame found itself at No. 3 in the initial CFP ranking released last Tuesday, after eye-catching victories over Southern California and North Carolina State. The Fighting Irish (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) kept rolling in Week 10, topping Wake Forest 48-37 as a 15.5-point home fave.
Miami is undefeated and trying to make its way into the CFP. The Hurricanes (8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS) certainly helped their cause in Week 10 by rolling over Virginia Tech 28-10 laying 2 points at home.
“Outside of Georgia-Auburn, no other game is getting as much early action as this top-10 showdown,” Mason said. “The Irish have been very generous to their loyal bettors this season, racking up a 7-2 record against the spread. The public will be counting on another Notre Dame cover – just 30 percent of the early tickets are on Miami.”
BetOnline.ag opened Notre Dame -1.5 and saw some upward movement, even getting to 4 momentarily, before dialing back to 2.5 and settling at 3 late Sunday night.
No. 9 Texas Christian Horned Frogs at No. 7 Oklahoma Sooners (-8)
If the Big 12 is to be represented in the CFP, one of these two teams will be doing said representing, and Oklahoma surely has the offensive firepower. On Saturday, the Sooners (8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) hung a 62-burger on Bedlam rival Oklahoma State, holding on for a defensively challenged 62-52 victory as a 1-point road pup.
Texas Christian is also 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS, and its lone loss was to Iowa State, just like Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs stubbed their collective toe in Week 9, but bounced back in Week 10 with a 24-7 home win over Texas giving 7.5 points.
“Dating back to last season, Oklahoma has been a covering machine in front of its home crowd, compiling an 8-1 record against the spread over their last 9 (home) games,” Mason said. “Despite this lopsided trend, 63 percent of early bettors hit TCU and the points. However, I believe the action will be pretty even come kickoff.”
No. 8 Washington Huskies at Stanford Cardinal (+5.5)
The Pac-12 is fading like a pair of 20-year-old jeans, with Washington – which made it to the CFP a season ago – the last best hope to reach the playoff this season. The Huskies (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) plastered Oregon 38-3 in Week 10, easily covering as a 17.5-point road chalk.
Stanford already has three losses on its resume, something even Heisman Trophy candidate Bryce Love can’t mask. The Cardinal (6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) went to Washington State on Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite and left with a 24-21 outright loss, halting a five-game SU win streak.
“The Huskies have been on a covering tear recently, going 5-1 ATS over their last six games. Stanford, on the other hand, only covered the number once in its last five games,” Mason said. “The early bettors are split 50/50 on this one, although there hasn’t been too much early action. By comparison, there are more than three times the bets on Georgia alone than Washington and Stanford combined. Despite the lack of early action, Washington quickly moved to 7-point chalk.”