March Madness Sweet 16: Best bets for East Region semis
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The first weekend of the NCAA Tournament again showed that you never know when the madness will hit. Sixteen teams survived the first two rounds, and we made it to this week with our heads above water, turning a small profit while having a pair of futures tickets still in hand from the West and Midwest Regions.
With a slate loaded with intriguing matchups, Matt Russell and Sam Oshtry bring their inside-outside presence to each game in the Sweet 16.
(5) San Diego State vs. (1) Connecticut (-11, 135.5)
Matt's best bet: San Diego State (+11)
It's hard to remember a time when you didn't have to pay around a two-point tax when backing UConn against the spread. This rematch of last year's national title game should be lined at -9.5. Of course, fading the Huskies is easier said than done, considering it feels like they always cover - eight straight NCAA Tournament games and just two losses against the spread since Feb. 1.
The only time since January when UConn won but didn't cover was against St. John's in the Big East Tournament. San Diego State has an almost identical ShotQuality profile as the Johnnies.
Both teams have changed since the Huskies' convincing championship win in Houston, but that might be better for the revenge-seeking Aztecs, as Brian Dutcher gets a week to prepare for Connecticut's constant offensive movement instead of less than 48 hours.
UConn has replaced three future NBA draftees with other potential NBA draftees. San Diego State made the title game last year despite its leading scorer, Matt Bradley (now playing in Germany), shooting 13-of-48 (27%) in its final five games, including 2-of-9 (0-of-4 from three) against the Huskies. Many forget that San Diego State was down just six points with five minutes to go.
This time around, with experience, better preparation, and Jaedon LeDee - arguably the biggest physical force UConn's faced all season - the Aztecs can generate enough offense to aid their top-10 defense - by KenPom - in staying within single digits. That wouldn't have necessarily earned them a cover of last year's 7.5-point spread, but it will this time around.
Sam's best bet: UConn team total: Over 73.5 points
UConn is in a tier of its own as an unstoppable, inevitable force. If it completes its journey as back-to-back national champion, it will have displayed one of if not the greatest two-year stretch in the sport's history.
San Diego State is simply an inferior opponent that UConn needs to bulldoze through to get to the mountaintop, just like it was in the national championship game last season. UConn won by 17 points last April.
San Diego State deserves credit as a top-10 defense and a well-coached unit that has become a mainstay in March. However, the Huskies' offense is a different breed. They have reliable options all over the floor, executive their sets brilliantly, and take efficient shots. No defense in the country can stop them, evidenced by the fact they've lost only once since Dec. 23.
The Huskies are on a nine-game winning streak. They scored at least 74 points in eight of those victories, and the one time they didn't, they fell just short with 73.
(3) Illinois vs. (2) Iowa State (-2, 146.5)
Sam's best bet: Illinois (+2)
This Sweet 16 matchup features the nation's best offense in Illinois and the best defense in Iowa State, according to KenPom.
Both teams have looked dominant in recent weeks, winning their respective conference tournament titles and easily progressing through the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
Iowa State's swarming and aggressive defense has the country's second-best turnover percentage. Its offense isn't great, but its stout defense consistently leads to offense.
Illinois has exceptional scoring guards and wings who don't turn the ball over often, one of the keys to surviving Iowa State's defense.
The Cyclones shoot a lowly 69.9% from the free-throw line, one of the worst marks among tournament teams. Iowa State could lose at the charity stripe if it comes down to the wire. Give me the Fighting Illini as underdogs.
Matt's best bet: Illinois (+2)
Sign me up for the Illini as well. A total of 146.5 suggests a higher-scoring game, which isn't what the Cyclones are hoping for. Illinois' defense will ultimately hurt its title chances, but in this game, Iowa State lacks the offense to keep up.
For Matt and Sam's best bets for the West Region, click here.