Big East Tournament preview: Who is UConn's biggest challenger?

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The Big East has arguably been the best conference in the country this season. UConn won the national title last year and downed enough electrolytes to eliminate any championship hangover. The Huskies might be even better this season: They finished 28-3 and steamrolled their way to the regular-season Big East title.

UConn is the favorite to win the national title (+500), but Creighton and Marquette are also title contenders with the 12th and ninth-best odds, respectively, to win.

Six teams from the Big East are projected to make the NCAA tourney, with four on the bubble heading into the Big East Tournament. Many programs will be playing for their postseason lives at Madison Square Garden.

We'll use ShotQuality's metrics that assess teams' ability to get and prevent good shots (3-pointers and rim attempts) to help handicap conference tournaments.

Tournament odds

With multi-bid leagues, we'll help clarify what each team is playing for by putting it in one of four categories. Those categories are: "Playing for 1-seed," "Securely in," "On the bubble," or "Need to win conference tournament" for an automatic bid to the NCAAs.

Early-round bet

Quarterfinals (March 14): (4) Seton Hall vs. (5) St. John's
Projected spread: St. John's -4

This will be a home game for St. John's. Although Seton Hall isn't too far from New York City either, Red Storm fans have packed MSG every time St. John's played there this season. That's already factored into the line, but beyond home-court advantage, St. John's needs this win more.

Seton Hall is technically on the bubble as one of the "last four byes," according to ESPN's Joe Lunardi. The Pirates, however, are unlikely to fall out of the field regardless of their Big East Tournament results. On the other hand, St. John's is a "last four in" team and would secure a bid with a win over Seton Hall.

The Pirates beat the Red Storm twice this season, but those St. John's losses came during rough stretches. Since its three-game losing streak in mid-February, St. John's has completely turned its season around. It's reeled off five straight wins, including one against Creighton. Head coach Rick Pitino knows how to win at this time of year, especially when his group is desperate and playing in front of a home crowd.

Pick: St. John's -4

Late-round matchup to target

Quarterfinals: (6) Villanova vs. (3) Marquette
Projected spread: PK (Projection accounts for Kolek's absence)

If Marquette is without its best player, Tyler Kolek - whose status is uncertain due to an oblique injury - it's susceptible to a loss to a desperate Villanova group.

Villanova should easily defeat a pathetic DePaul squad in the opening round and likely needs to beat Marquette to earn a trip to the NCAA Tournament. If the Wildcats don't advance to the semifinals, they could miss the tournament for the second consecutive season.

Kolek serves as the engine of the Golden Eagles' offense, and it can't function at an elite level without him. Villanova has the Big East's third-best adjDEF, and the Wildcats' desperation will earn them a win against short-handed Marquette.

Pick: Villanova PK

Creighton (+425)

It's tough to pick against UConn. The Huskies have looked unstoppable since November with a parade of talent leading an efficient half-court offense and brilliant coaching guiding a physical defense. But one team has stopped them: Creighton.

The Bluejays are the only team that has defeated the Huskies in two-plus months. Creighton has the offensive firepower to compete with UConn and is on the other side of the bracket, so they wouldn't meet until the championship. Creighton boasts the second-best adjOFF in the country (UConn is fourth) and the best adjDEF in the conference.

Creighton has never won the Big East championship but has made the finals in three of the last six tournaments. It may prove foolish to bet against the Huskies, but at +425, Creighton is hard to resist.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.