CBB betting trends: Big Ten mediocrity, asking if Kentucky is legit

While the NBA might be the most drama-filled operation in sports, the college basketball scene is the most chaotic. The transfer portal has created even more unpredictability in an already unpredictable sport.

Welcome to our new column, where we'll break down college basketball trends across the country and in various conferences ahead of March's postseason.

In the first installation, we touch on the Big Ten's down season and why Kentucky is a title contender.

Big Ten: The conference of mediocrity

In past years, outsiders have referred to the Big Ten as the conference of cannibalization as good teams beat up on each other, wearing them out for March.

This season, the Big Ten has plummeted to the conference of mediocrity.

The standings are still jumbled and upsets are still frequent because, well, the chaos of college basketball reigns supreme. But there are clear tiers in the conference.

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi currently has six Big Ten teams in the Big Dance. Two of them - Nebraska and Northwestern - are on the right side of the bubble.

If the Big Ten does send six teams to March Madness - which may be generous at this point - that would be the fewest Big Ten teams in the NCAA Tournament since 2018, when there were just four.

At least eight teams have represented the Big Ten in each of the last four tournaments, the most of any conference. How have things gone south for the well-respected basketball conference?

It starts with disappointing seasons from teams with high expectations. Before the season, Michigan State (+300), Maryland (+825), and Indiana (+900) had the second-, third-, and fourth-best odds, respectively, to win the conference. None of their seasons have gone according to plan.

They now have the fourth- (+4000), ninth- (+40000), and eighth-best odds (+30000).

Big Ten conference win/loss and ATS record

Let's start with Michigan State. This was supposed to be 68-year-old Tom Izzo's best and most experienced roster in years.

The veteran-laden group got off to a rough start when it lost its first game of the season to James Madison. From there, it failed to compete with powerhouses Duke and Arizona and then started 0-2 in the Big Ten with losses to Nebraska and Wisconsin.

It's looked better as of late, though, as the Spartans have won four of their last six games. While their defense is elite, they don't possess the rebounding prowess that's been synonymous with Izzo-coached teams. They also struggle to score consistently.

Michigan State is still a tournament team, but it isn't the title contender many thought it'd be before the season. There are only so many more chances for Izzo to put together another Final Four run before his tenure ends more like Jim Boeheim's than Roy Williams'.

Maryland's roster construction is as bad as any team's in the Big Ten. It relies too much on Jahmir Young, who's been sensational but can't single-handedly lead the Terps to consistent wins.

Maryland leads the conference in scoring defense but has the second-worst scoring offense. The Terps are shooting 29% from three, which ranks 338 out of 362 eligible Division I teams. Their games go under the total at a 65% rate.

Indiana's downfall was a bit more predictable when Mike Woodson lost last year's two best players - Jalen Hood-Schifino and Trayce Jackson-Davis - to the NBA. The Hoosiers replenished their roster, but that hasn't produced wins. Indiana's lackluster offense and poor 3-point shooting (on few attempts) have led to some ugly losses, including double-digit defeats to Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Purdue.

It's turning into a lost season in Bloomington. Woodson's job isn't in jeopardy after consecutive tournament berths, but chatter will start to heat up after a discouraging campaign.

Ironically, this may be the Big Ten's best chance at ending its 24-year NCAA Tournament title drought (Michigan State was the last Big Ten team to win a national championship in 2000). Purdue is the favorite (+900) to win the national title.

It's hard to blame Purdue detractors after last year's epic collapse. However, the Boilermakers are on a mission to avenge the biggest upset in NCAA Tournament history with a deep run in March - as Virginia did in 2019.

They returned the National Player of the Year front-runner Zach Edey and surrounded him with more shooting and reliable scorers. Purdue's electric offense goes over the total in 70% of its games. This team has the pieces for a March run.

The Big Ten's lack of tournament success is a talking point every year. In a down season for the conference, could a Big Ten team finally capture that elusive national championship?

Is Kentucky a real contender?

In this new age of college basketball, there's a belief that it's hard to win championships with underclassmen. The banners in certain arenas around the country support the adage.

But this iteration of Kentucky basketball might force pundits to rethink that. While the Wildcats are young - they have the least-experienced roster in the conference and rank 163rd in experience in the country - they're not immature.

That may come as a surprise to read after their 17-point beatdown at South Carolina on Tuesday night. But that was more about the Gamecocks' arrival than Kentucky's downfall.

Florida tested Kentucky's maturity on the road in early January. Against a talented frontcourt team in a raucous environment, the Wildcats showed poise in a two-point win. Kentucky (14-4, 4-2 SEC) is in fifth place in the conference.

The Wildcats' nonconference resume features wins against UNC and Miami, as well as a narrow loss to Kansas. That's not the resume of an immature, young team. Remember the noise about John Calipari's future in Lexington last season? That felt premature, huh?

The SEC is a challenging and deep conference. Kentucky has the fourth-best odds to win the regular-season title at +650 behind Tennessee (+190), Alabama (+320), and Auburn (+130).

However, the Wildcats have better odds to make the Final Four and win the national championship than any other SEC team. They're +300 (fifth best in the nation) to make the Final Four and +1200 (also fifth best) to win the title.

Kentucky has the depth of a title contender. Eight Wildcats players play at least 20 minutes per game. It's not quite reminiscent of the 2015 38-1 Kentucky squad that subbed five players in at a time, (Devin Booker came off the bench for that team!) but it's not far off.

The Wildcats have the best freshman class in the country, featuring Rob Dillingham, Reed Sheppard, Justin Edwards, D.J. Wagner, and Aaron Bradshaw.

After early-season struggles, Wagner - ESPN's fourth-ranked recruit in the class of 2023 - has emerged as a dependable scorer. Sheppard is shooting a staggering 55% from distance this season, sixth among all Division I players, and he's considered a top prospect in the 2024 NBA Draft. Dillingham's a fluid scorer, averaging the most points among Kentucky's freshmen and the second most on the team at 13.9 per contest.

The Wildcats also have upperclassmen to balance their inexperience. Senior guard Antonio Reeves leads the team in scoring (19.2 points per game), while senior forward Tre Mitchell is Kentucky's top rebounder (7.5 boards per contest).

Not to mention that Zvonimir Ivisic made his debut this past weekend after being cleared to play by the NCAA. Ivisic is considered an NBA prospect from Croatia but is largely a mystery. However, the 7-foot-2 center should provide much-needed depth to Kentucky's frontcourt.

Calipari's squad has the pieces of a title contender. Kentucky's offense - one that broke 100 points in a conference game last weekend - is ranked fourth in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency ranking. It has a wealth of riches on offense as 78% of its games have gone over the total.

However, the Wildcats' downfall could be their defense. There are constant defensive lapses and miscues, which is expected from a freshman-heavy group. How long can Kentucky, which ranks 98th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency, simply outscore its competition? If the Wildcats can become an average defensive team, their offense will be reliable enough to carry them in the postseason. But that's a big if.

When March rolls around, anyone paying attention will hear that it's hard to win with freshmen. Recent history tells us that's true. But the Wildcats haven't looked like a typical freshman-led group. And if anyone can win with underclassmen, it's Calipari.

Kentucky awaits two matchups against Tennessee, a rematch versus Florida, and a date with Auburn. We'll learn a lot about the Wildcats in the next month, and they'll be battle-tested when the regular season concludes. However, their dud road performance at South Carolina can, and likely will, happen again.

It's likely wise to wait and see if Kentucky's odds lengthen as the Wildcats hit some bumps with the gauntlet of the SEC on the horizon. Whether it's at +1200 right now or at a better buy-low price down the road, hop on the Kentucky wagon.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.