Durant, Beal injuries shake up bookmaker win totals
With Kevin Durant set to miss about 20 games thanks to a Jones fracture in his right foot, bookmakers have scrambled to adjust their win total over/unders ahead of the NBA season.
In the initial aftermath of the injury Sunday, multiple books even took down their totals altogether while they re-evaluated the landscape. Lines for the Thunder have been slow to resurface.
Based on calculations by ESPN's Kevin Pelton, losing Durant six-to-eight weeks threatens to cost the Oklahoma City Thunder two-to-three wins. That seems like a fair number given the Thunder's depth and a few easy games on the docket early in the year, though even two or three wins threaten their standing for home court in the Western Conference playoffs.
Also shaking things up on the Eastern Conference side is Bradley Beal suffering a wrist injury and missing perhaps a dozen games for the Washington Wizards.
Here's a look at how the win totals for each team have changed since the early lines posted in mid-August, courtesy of bwin:
Team | Aug. 12 | Oct. 13 | Change |
---|---|---|---|
Thunder | 56.5 | n/a | n/a |
Cavaliers | 57.5 | 59.5 | 2 |
Spurs | 57.5 | 57.5 | 0 |
Bulls | 55.5 | 55.5 | 0 |
Clippers | 54.5 | 55.5 | 1 |
Grizzlies | 48.5 | 50.5 | 2 |
Mavericks | 46.5 | 50.5 | 4 |
Warriors | 49.5 | 49.5 | 0 |
Wizards | 50.5 | 48.5 | -2 |
Rockets | 48.5 | 48.5 | 0 |
Trail Blazers | 45.5 | 48.5 | 3 |
Raptors | 47.5 | 47.5 | 0 |
Nuggets | 43.5 | 43.5 | 0 |
Heat | 43.5 | 43.5 | 0 |
Hornets | 43.5 | 43.5 | 0 |
Hawks | 44.5 | 42.5 | -2 |
Suns | 41.5 | 42.5 | 1 |
Pelicans | 41.5 | 41.5 | 0 |
Nets | 39.5 | 39.5 | 0 |
Pacers | 38.5 | 36.5 | -2 |
Knicks | 36.5 | 36.5 | 0 |
Pistons | 36.5 | 35.5 | -1 |
Lakers | 33.5 | 33 | -0.5 |
Celtics | 28.5 | 28.5 | 0 |
Kings | 26.5 | 28.5 | 2 |
Magic | 27.5 | 27.5 | 0 |
Timberwolves | 25.5 | 26.5 | 1 |
Jazz | 19.5 | 23 | 3.5 |
Bucks | 20.5 | 20.5 | 0 |
76ers | 17.5 | 17.5 | 0 |
Based on how the other win totals have shifted, some quick math suggests the Thunder's new line could land around 48.5 - an extreme drop.
If it comes in higher than that, some arbitrage could occur, as the current lines already have 1181.5 of the league's 1230 available wins accounted for. In other words, if the Thunder line remains above 50, the lines in aggregate will be offering more wins than are available, making unders a value play.