Former players union head Charles Grantham foresees lockout in 2017

2017 will be the first year that NBA players or owners can opt out of the current collective bargaining agreement. Although that's three years away, the consensus among league executives and prominent agents is that another lockout is inevitable.

The prediction may seem premature, but as former executive director of the players union Charles Grantham explains, the groundwork is already being laid for another lockout.

"Ideally, whether labor or management, you begin work on the next negotiation the day after you sign the last agreement," Grantham told the Sporting News. "For the players, they have not been able to do that. They still need to find a director, and once they have one, they need to assemble a team and work on a strategy. They're way behind."

Grantham worked for the union from 1978 to 1995, serving as its executive director for the final seven of those years. He points to three problems that make another lockout seemingly guaranteed.

1. System issues

Although players dropped their share revenue from 57 percent to 50 percent in the last collective bargaining agreement (a move that benefited owners as players gave up an average of at least $350 million per year), the owners will be interested in pushing for another lockout "because they can."

"You're seeing somewhat of a notice put out by the NBA and the new commissioner that they have an interest in increasing the age to 20, they want a hard cap," Grantham said. "The NBA is going to want more."

In other words, the owners have little to lose in terms of making more demands.

2. The TV deal

In the event of a lockout, franchises still earn significant TV money. This means that owners have a cushion to fall back on in 2017 that the players don't have.

"When the owners figured out a way to insulate themselves from lockout damage, the onus was put on the players to figure out, 'OK, how do we do the same?'" Grantham said. "There has to be an institutional mechanism that protects the players, the way the owners have. The way things stand now, there is almost no penalty for the owners when there is a lockout."

As it stands, owners receive a boost in lockout negotations simply because they hold the ability to inflict financial pain on the players.

3. The lockout problem

Sports unions consistently fail in their attempts to get the courts to view lockouts as illegal. NHL players fell short in their two attempts, NFL players were unable to do so in 2011, and NBA players were unsuccessful in both 1999 and 2011.

But despite the failed attempts, Grantham believes the NBA needs a director who can crack the problem.

"There are a whole lot of reasons why this kind of planning should already be underway," Grantham said. "Management clearly has started their planning - they are putting forth their manpower, their resources, into the next negotiations. For the union, it is a matter of catching up, and the problem is, even when they do catch up, there is the problem of not having as much stability or experience."