NBA East playoff race: Can Raptors, Sixers avoid play-in?
When the 76ers earned a thrilling win over the Hornets on Saturday night, it didn't just signal to the Eastern Conference that Philadelphia is a threat when healthy; it strengthened the Sixers' position in the crammed play-in picture, where six teams separated by 3.5 games are fighting for four playoff spots.
The Pistons, Celtics, Knicks, and Cavaliers are virtually locked into the top four seeds, but the bottom of the conference is an entangled mess as less than two weeks remain in the regular season.
The Magic and Hornets are the only teams with less than a 50% chance of making the postseason, though the other four are far from secure.
Eastern Conference play-in picture
| Team | Record entering Monday | Odds to make/miss playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| 5. Raptors | 42-32 | -3000/+900 |
| 6. Hawks | 42-33 | -650/+380 |
| 7. Sixers | 41-33 | -750/+425 |
| 8. Magic | 39-35 | +105/-135 |
| 9. Heat | 39-36 | -105/-125 |
| 10. Hornets | 39-36 | +105/-135 |
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5. Raptors
After a surprising 29-19 start, the Raptors have since gone 13-13 and are fighting to avoid the play-in. While the other play-in potentials are currently looking up at them in the standings, Toronto still has the Pistons, Celtics, Knicks, and two pivotal contests against the Heat on the schedule. Without offensive star power, the Raptors have relied on Scottie Barnes' versatility, Brandon Ingram's scoring, and impressive depth from the league's 10th-best bench.
They own the tiebreaker over the Hawks and Magic and must win one game versus the Heat to secure the tiebreaker over Miami. An epic collapse is the only thing that would prevent Toronto from missing the postseason.
6. Hawks
NBA fans have probably read that the Hawks are the league's hottest team. While it's true they've won 15 of their last 17 games, a closer look reveals that a remarkably easy schedule helped them surge up the standings. Thirteen of those victories came against teams not currently in the playoff picture, and the other two were against the decimated Sixers and Cade Cunningham-less Pistons.
Beyond Jalen Johnson's emergence as an All-NBA-level player, Atlanta's improved defense - the seventh-best unit over the last two months - has carried it past the other play-in candidates.
But with matchups against the Celtics, Nets, Knicks, Magic, Heat, and two against the Cavaliers left, Atlanta could fall into the play-in, where its seasons have ended the last two years. However, the Hawks own the tiebreaker over the Sixers after sweeping them during the regular season.
7. Sixers
No one spreads false hope like the 76ers, who have overcome extended absences from Paul George, Tyrese Maxey, and Joel Embiid to move to seventh in the East, one game out of fifth place.
Their four best players - Embiid, Maxey, George, and VJ Edgecombe - have only played 17 games and 300 minutes together. Here's the good news: When those four do take the court, along with Kelly Oubre, the Sixers outscore opponents by 6.3 points per 100 possessions, which would be tied for the NBA's fifth-best net rating. When equipped with the Embiid-Maxey empty-side pick-and-roll, plus floor-spacing and secondary creation from George, Edgecombe, and Oubre, Philly is as talented as any team in the East.
The bad news is that NBA history has taught us it's nearly impossible to make a playoff run without having a significant number of reps and sustained chemistry. Saturday's win over the Hornets was the first time Embiid, George, and Maxey played together since Jan. 29. Among Philly's final eight opponents are the Heat, Wizards, Pacers, Bucks, and Pistons. The Sixers should escape the play-in, but jumping to the fifth seed is important, as they'll want to meet the Cavs rather than the Knicks in the opening round.
8. Magic
Jamahl Mosley has a better chance of being fired before the season ends than he does leading the bleeding Magic to the playoffs. Orlando has lost seven of its last eight games and is coming off its worst offensive performance of the season in a loss to Toronto on Sunday. The Magic committed 28 turnovers in that outing, the second most by a team this season.
While floundering offenses have been par for the course with this Orlando core, its defense has shockingly crashed. After owning the league's second-best defense last season, the Magic are outside the top 15 this campaign. Missing the playoffs after being picked by many pundits to win the East would be a disastrous outcome.
9. Heat
The play-in tournament, otherwise known as the Miami Heat invitational, will likely feature the Heat for the fourth consecutive season. They've made the postseason through the play-in each of the last three seasons. In a win-and-in scenario, Erik Spoelstra's game-planning and coaching brilliance typically provides Miami with an edge.
While the Heat have lost seven of their last nine since going to ridiculous efforts to help Bam Adebayo reach 83 points (maybe the basketball gods are punishing them), they have enough talent between Adebayo, Tyler Herro, and Norman Powell to sneak into the playoffs.
10. Hornets
The Hornets own the league's best net rating (10.5) and fourth-best record (28-14) since Jan. 1. But they're still in 10th place and three games out of the sixth seed because of a 9-20 start to the season. With seven games remaining, including three against the top three teams in the East, the hole is likely too big for Charlotte to climb out of. However, it could move into the ideal seven-eight matchup to avoid a single-elimination scenario.
Charlotte's starting lineup of LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Miles Bridges, and Moussa Diabate has posted a 27.7 net rating in 438 minutes together, by far the best mark in the NBA among five-man lineups that have played at least 150 minutes. The Hornets will be the best team in the play-in tournament, but experience matters in these settings, and none of their starters have played a single playoff minute in their careers.
Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more basketball coverage.
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