NBA championship bets: Finals, conference title winners

Even in this parity-driven era of the NBA, the eventual NBA champion is predictable. Nine of the last 10 champions entered the season with top-five odds to win the title. The lone exception was the Nuggets in 2023, who had the ninth-best preseason odds.

By that rule, the only teams worth betting on to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy are the Thunder, Cavaliers, Nuggets, Knicks, and Rockets. Below, we present odds and picks for the conference and NBA Finals champions.

East winner odds

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🏀 Pick: Knicks to win the East (+325)

The Cavaliers and Knicks are the biggest beneficiaries of the injuries decimating East contenders. The Celtics and Pacers, the last two Eastern Conference champions, saw their best players tear their Achilles tendons during the postseason. Jayson Tatum's and Tyrese Haliburton's unfortunate absences open the door for two playoff-tested teams facing championship-or-bust expectations.

Cleveland won 64 games last season but flamed out in the second round due to injuries and poor production from its stars. The Knicks had a top-five offense and made their first conference finals appearance in 25 years. They still weren't satisfied, firing head coach Tom Thibodeau and hiring Mike Brown to replace him.

Without discounting the improved Magic and Hawks, both of whom are legitimate threats, the Eastern Conference champ will either be the Knicks or the Cavs. Who has the edge?

The Knicks' core has played together for a full season since New York acquired Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges. But this version of the team will discard last campaign's heliocentric approach that revolved around Jalen Brunson. Brown's new system will emphasize player and ball movement and pace, running actions through Bridges and Towns more frequently. Brunson, the reigning Clutch Player of the Year, will still have the rock late in games, but buying him some time off the ball should help conserve his energy.

New York now boasts a much deeper bench. A full year of Mitchell Robinson, along with the additions of Guerschon Yabusele and Jordan Clarkson, will give the Knicks reliable depth and lineup versatility. Their defense should also be better with Brown playing Towns and Robinson together more frequently.

The Cavaliers' top-rated offense benefited when head coach Kenny Atkinson emphasized playing with more pace and space, but their roster has limitations, as evidenced by their recent postseason exits. Meanwhile, Brunson is a top-10 player surrounded by some of the league's best role players and secondary options. Thanks to the Knicks' talent and new system, they've got a slight edge over Cleveland.

West winner odds

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🏀 Pick: Nuggets to win NBA Finals (+650)

Even if we believed the Thunder were going to repeat as NBA champs, it'd be foolish to recommend taking a team to win the title at +200. There hasn't been a repeat champion since the Warriors in 2018.

The Thunder won 68 games and finished with the second-best net rating in NBA history. They rarely turned the ball over, their defense ranked atop the league, and they forced the most turnovers in the NBA, consistently creating fast-break points. Oklahoma City returns most of its roster, and the youthful core - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (27), Jalen Williams (24), and Chet Holmgren (23) - is just hitting its prime.

OKC did show some cracks throughout its championship run, including questionable clutch offense in certain games and poor 3-point shooting. The Thunder shot 33% from deep throughout the playoffs, the fourth-worst mark among playoff teams. Their incredible defense masked those deficiencies. We're not expecting their historically dominant defense to falter, but the gap between the Thunder and the rest of the West contenders - most notably the Nuggets - has shrunk.

Denver lost to Oklahoma City in seven games in the second round, then made clever offseason moves to elevate its championship chances - swapping out Michael Porter Jr. for Cam Johnson, adding Jonas Valanciunas, and signing Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown. Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic now has the best supporting cast of his NBA career.

The Nuggets spent last year dealing with organizational disarray as conflict between the coach and general manager spilled over to the entire franchise. Ownership cut ties with both parties before the regular season was even finished. Head coach David Adelman will now get a full season to implement his system, and the Nuggets have the league's most impactful player, surrounded by the most reliable teammates he's ever played with. Jokic will further cement his legacy as an all-time great with his second championship.

Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more basketball coverage.

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