NBA Rookie of the Year odds: Flagg heavily favored

The first night of the NBA draft is in the rearview, and it's time to start projecting stars and busts. Other than Egor Demin going in the top 10 and Yang Hansen surging into the first round, it was a relatively mundane Round 1.

theScore Bet and ESPN Bet posted Rookie of the Year odds following Wednesday's opening round. Some players' destinations played a key role in their chances of winning the award.

Rookie of the Year odds

Odds available at theScore Bet/ESPN Bet

Cooper Flagg is the heavy favorite after being selected by the Mavericks, whose extreme luck in the lottery landed them the first overall pick to add to a roster that can immediately contend. Most No. 1 picks play on disastrous rosters for organizations that are years away from competing.

However, until Kyrie Irving returns from an ACL injury, Flagg is the Mavs' only reliable perimeter creator. He'll shoulder a ton of responsibility as an 18-year-old rookie, and his offensive versatility and willingness to play defense project him as a future superstar. Unless he doesn't play enough games, Flagg should win Rookie of the Year. But let's evaluate some of Flagg's potential challengers.

Dylan Harper has longer odds (+1200) than a typical second overall pick. He joins a Spurs squad with an exciting young core that's ready to emerge as a playoff team for the first time since 2019. Harper's a lethal scorer and downhill driver, but San Antonio has a crowded backcourt with De'Aaron Fox and reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle. Plus, Victor Wembanyama has surpassed expectations, becoming one of the NBA's best players in his second season. He'll demand even more touches as he expands his offensive arsenal.

While Harper is a monumental part of the Spurs' future, his environment doesn't require him to take over. He won't have as much of an opportunity as Flagg to record eye-popping stat lines, which could weaken his Rookie of the Year case.

Similarly, VJ Edgecombe (+2500), the Sixers' third overall pick, will play a spot-up role alongside established stars Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Paul George. He was drafted for his defense and ungodly athleticism, and it's unlikely he'll outshine some of the other rookies.

On the other hand, Harper's Rutgers co-star Ace Bailey (+650) is entering a completely different situation than his former teammate. Bailey was widely considered the third-best prospect in the draft, but he fell to the Jazz at No. 5 because of how he handled his predraft process. He refused all workouts and made it known he wanted nothing to do with certain organizations, including Utah. However, the Jazz didn't care, and they drafted him based on his talent and upside.

Bailey will have plenty of chances to showcase his skills on a struggling team without many hopeful long-term prospects. He averaged 17.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks during his lone season at Rutgers. While he'll take time to adjust to the NBA and must become a more efficient player, his statistical outputs should make headlines as Utah continues to pile up losses.

Tre Johnson (+750) will have the ball a ton for the Wizards in a lead guard role. He's a dynamic player who scores off the bounce and the catch. Washington has solid young pieces, but it desperately needs a star to take it back to the playoffs. Johnson can be that guy, and he'll have every opportunity to prove that in his first season. I'd expect him to be a finalist for Rookie of the Year.

Kon Knueppel and Jeremiah Fears, the No. 4 and No. 7 picks, were drafted by teams that expect them to play complementary roles. But there's one player who could really shock people with a Rookie of the Year win: Demin.

The Nets selected Demin eighth overall, although he was projected to go much later in the lottery. While many considered Brooklyn's pick a reach, Demin will have full rein offensively. The Nets had five first-round picks, four of which they used on guards. However, none are as talented as Demin, who was a polarizing prospect because of his shooting struggles (27% from three and 69% from the free-throw line).

A 6-foot-9 point guard with tremendous playmaking abilities, he's a good driver and finishes well at the rim by absorbing contact and using his footwork. He's the best passer in the draft, so Brooklyn will use Demin as a pick-and-roll ball-handler frequently. Despite his poor shooting numbers, he never lost confidence and reportedly shot well during workouts. Demin has All-Star potential if he can become a respectable 3-point shooter. In a rebuilding environment with good coaching, Demin will have one of the best rookie seasons.

It's Flagg's award to lose, but this draft class is deep and full of high-ceiling players.

Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.