Thunder 7.5-point favorites over Pacers in Game 7
With the Larry O'Brien Trophy tucked away in the bowels of Gainbridge Fieldhouse, the Thunder could taste the championship, but they couldn't seize it Thursday.
Oklahoma City couldn't match Indiana's energy and focus in Game 6. The Pacers outscored the Thunder by 27 in the second and third quarters combined. Indiana's defense held Oklahoma City to a playoff-low 91 points and 26% shooting from three. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a series-low 21 points.
The Thunder rarely turn the ball over and they force turnovers at a high rate, often turning defense into offense. The Pacers flipped the script on them in Game 6, committing 10 turnovers to the Thunder's 21. OKC's half-court offense was already in shambles, and it couldn't generate points off turnovers either. It was an uncharacteristic performance on both ends by the Thunder.
That brings us to the two best words in sports: Game 7. Sunday's concluding game of the NBA season will be the first Finals Game 7 since the Cavaliers upset the Warriors in 2016.
The Thunder opened as 8.5-point home favorites over the Pacers on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet, the largest NBA Finals Game 7 spread since at least 1991, per ESPN, but that dropped to 7.5 Friday morning. OKC is -325 on the moneyline while Indiana is +260. Tyrese Haliburton's calf injury was a prominent storyline entering Game 6, but it didn't appear to bother him. Plus, he only played 23 minutes Thursday because Indiana blew Oklahoma City out.
The home team has won 15 of the last 19 NBA Finals Game 7s, including six of the last seven. Oklahoma City will provide an electric atmosphere Sunday night. A trend working in the Pacers' favor is that the winner of the last three Game 7s on this stage - Cavs in 2016, Heat in 2013, and Lakers in 2010 - trailed 3-2 entering Game 6 and won two straight to capture the title.
Can the Pacers pull off another monumental upset as huge underdogs?
Even if the Thunder emerge victorious, the Pacers pushing the series to a Game 7 is a shocking result. Oklahoma City entered the series as a -700 favorite - the largest finals favorite since the 2018 Warriors, who swept the Cavaliers. And if the Pacers upset the Thunder on their home floor? A Pacers win would be the biggest upset in NBA Finals history since the Pistons defeated the Lakers in 2004 as +500 underdogs, the same price at which Indiana entered these Finals.
The Pacers are no strangers to this spot. Indiana was an underdog entering its last three playoff series and has been an underdog of five points or more in every Finals game despite winning half of them. Oddsmakers have been dead wrong about how competitive this series would be, and Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle is aware of those spreads.
"We're gonna be an underdog in every game this series," Carlisle told reporters before Game 4, according to Yahoo Sports' Zachary Howell. "It was 10.5 in the first two games, 5.5 last night. ... Anything less than a total grit mindset, we just don't have a chance."
Their unbreakable spirit has improbably led them to 15 playoff wins. One more on Sunday night and the Pacers' storybook season will culminate in the first championship in franchise history, defying the odds in the process.
Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.