NBA Finals MVP odds: Does anyone other than SGA have a chance?
When one team is a substantial NBA Finals favorite, it's no surprise when that team's best player is the massive favorite to earn Finals MVP. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is -600 to become the first player to win regular-season and Finals MVP since LeBron James in 2013.
As outlined in our Finals preview, the Pacers have virtually no chance to win as gigantic underdogs. Thus, we don't assign much of a possibility (neither do the oddsmakers) to any Pacers player winning Finals MVP. But could someone other than Gilgeous-Alexander earn the honor?
Finals MVP odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | -600 |
| Tyrese Haliburton | +700 |
| Pascal Siakam | +1800 |
| Jalen Williams | +4000 |
| Chet Holmgren | +6600 |
| Alex Caruso | +20000 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | +20000 |
| Myles Turner | +20000 |
Tyrese Haliburton has the second-best odds because he's the presumed winner if the Pacers pull off a monumental upset. However, Haliburton was a huge favorite to be named Eastern Conference Finals MVP before Pascal Siakam ultimately won it.
That was a contentious decision by the nine voters, considering Haliburton dictates the Pacers' pace and is responsible for their offensive success. While Siakam averaged more points, Haliburton's passing and clutch performances should have won him the honor.
A similar scenario could play out against the Thunder, as their aggressive ball pressure will hinder Haliburton's ability to create separation and waltz through the lane like he has in the previous three series. Oklahoma City has various resistant perimeter defenders who will cause trouble for Haliburton, including Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace, among others. Haliburton averaged 11 points and 5.5 assists in two games against the Thunder. His drives and paint touches were also way down in those matchups.
If the Pacers miraculously upset the Thunder, Siakam will be the driving force.
Nevertheless, the award is Gilgeous-Alexander's to lose, and he's probably not going to lose it. While the Thunder's historically great defense has carried them to the Finals, the league MVP is the offensive engine. He's averaging 29.8 points - roughly nine points more than Jalen Williams - and leads the team in assists during the postseason. The Thunder superstar has scored at least 30 points in 11 of his 16 playoff games. However, Gilgeous-Alexander's odds are way too short for any reasonable person to bet on him.
The path for another Thunder player to win MVP would be the Pacers throwing everything at Gilgeous-Alexander, constantly sending doubles (and even triples) his way and aggressively blitzing his ball screens, forcing the ball out of his hands and making room for a costar to have a huge series. Another path is for one Thunder defender to emerge as a dominant force, similar to how Andre Iguodala won Finals MVP over Steph Curry in 2015 as James' primary defender despite finishing as the Warriors' second-leading scorer.
Williams struggled early in the playoffs but has been an exceptional secondary scorer for the Thunder since Game 7 of the second round against the Nuggets. He then averaged 22 points per contest on 46% 3-point shooting against the Timberwolves. But the Pacers' defensive plan will focus on shutting down Williams along with Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder's other players must step up, and there's one who's been a huge part of OKC's run in just his second full season.
Chet Holmgren, who's coming off a productive Western Conference finals where he averaged 18 points and six boards, should overwhelm his matchups against Indiana. He didn't play in either regular-season contest, but Siakam and Myles Turner will primarily guard him. Siakam doesn't have the height to guard Holmgren, and Turner lacks the lateral quickness to stop his drives.
While Karl-Anthony Towns was criticized last series, he scored effortlessly by consistently driving past Turner and other Pacers defenders. Holmgren isn't the offensive talent Towns is, but he's capable of huge offensive outputs against questionable defenders. With the bulk of the defensive attention on Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams, Holmgren is primed for a prosperous Finals.
Plus, Holmgren is the Thunder's defensive anchor. He's been tremendous as a rim-protector throughout the playoffs, averaging a team-leading two blocks per game.
Gilgeous-Alexander will almost certainly win the award, but Holmgren is a good long-shot bet if the honor somehow goes to someone else.
Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.