NBA Finals betting preview: Thunder largest favorites since 2018

The Thunder (-700) are the largest NBA Finals favorites since the 2018 Warriors, who swept the Cavaliers. And aside from those Warriors, only the Lakers in 2000, 2001, and 2002 had shorter odds to win the championship this century. The Pacers, meanwhile, are +500 to upset Oklahoma City.

Indiana has overcome long odds throughout the season. It entered the campaign at +5000 to win the Finals and jumped to +10000 after a 10-15 start. The Pacers then knocked off the Cavaliers in the second round and the Knicks in the conference finals as underdogs.

But improbable Finals runs often end unceremoniously. Let's dive into the Pacers' chances.

Do the Pacers have any chance?

The Pacers are in the Finals because of their pace and depth, and those two things are correlated. Indiana's deep bench allows it to dictate a fast pace, recycling in replacement-level role players who adopt the same style. The Pacers successfully applied full-court pressure to the Knicks and ultimately won the battle of attrition.

But the Thunder can negate any advantage the Pacers have. The two squads do a bunch of the same things well; the Thunder just do them better. Depth is also a strength of OKC, who boast a deep roster that elevates a historically great defense. The Thunder's bench averages more minutes per game than the Pacers' bench.

Stylistically, this matchup pits a fast-paced, egalitarian offense against a dominant, aggressive defense.

The Pacers had success in previous series by attacking weak point-of-attack defenses. They constantly targeted vulnerable defenders like Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. That's not possible against the Thunder, who play no weak defenders.

Indiana's offense is predicated on Tyrese Haliburton gliding downhill, collapsing the defense, and putting defenders in rotation against a group that moves the ball and attacks closeouts better than anyone. The problem is the Pacers' free-flowing style hasn't met a team like the Thunder, who shut off drives with feisty ball pressure. The Thunder's defense moves on a string, rotating and recovering at a frightening level. Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, and Alex Caruso will all take turns making Haliburton's life as difficult as possible.

While the Pacers push the ball even after made shots, their transition attack is often catapulted by generating turnovers. The Knicks averaged over 15 turnovers in the Eastern Conference finals, leading to many opportunities for a team that scores a whopping 1.32 points per possession in transition.

Those leak-out chances won't exist against the Thunder, who have the NBA's best regular-season and playoff turnover rate. OKC limits opponent transition opportunities by rarely turning the ball over. It has allowed the second-fewest fast-break points this postseason.

Oklahoma City also forces turnovers at the league's highest rate and flourishes in transition. It led the NBA in points off turnovers and allowed the fewest points off turnovers. Whoever wins the turnover battle will win the series, and the Thunder have the edge.

While the Pacers have become synonymous with pace, the Thunder have actually played at a faster pace this postseason. The Thunder cherish possessions, creating an unsolvable formula for beating them.

The Pacers are shooting a playoff-best 40% from three this postseason. They lead the playoffs in wide-open 3-point frequency among teams that have played at least five playoff games, per NBA Stats, and have generated open threes by playing fast and driving-and-kicking. But they'll have difficulty creating open threes while the Thunder shut off drives.

At the other end of the court, the Thunder's offense hasn't reached its ceiling this postseason. It's shooting 33% from three, fourth worst among all playoff teams, after drilling 37% of its attempts during the regular season. OKC's offense should explode against a suspect Pacers defense that ranks in the bottom half in playoff defensive rating.

The Pacers' only chance to keep the series competitive is with more incredible clutch performances. Indiana has a 37.4 clutch net rating in the playoffs and is 7-1 in clutch games. However, the difference between these teams is so lopsided that most of these games won't make it into clutch territory.

Like other improbable Finals runs, the sun must set on a special season. Indiana's offense won't have answers for the Thunder's relentless ball pressure and swarming defense.

How to bet a lopsided Finals

As outlined, the Pacers can't win this series unless the Thunder are hit by catastrophic injuries. So how are we supposed to bet such a lopsided Finals?

It's not a matter of if the Thunder close out the Pacers; it's in how many games.

Odds via theScore Bet/ESPN Bet

The Thunder have enough advantages to sweep the Pacers, but beating any opponent four straight times is challenging. Oklahoma City is also a young group without much championship DNA, meaning it's susceptible to letdowns.

That became evident in the opening round when the Grizzlies led the Thunder by 29 in Game 3 with OKC up 2-0 in the series, although Oklahoma City eventually came back to win.

A similar scenario occurred in Game 3 of the Western Conference finals against the Timberwolves. Oklahoma City took its foot off the gas with a 2-0 lead, and the more desperate team took advantage. Minnesota won by 42, its lone win of the series.

A repeat could happen in the Finals when the Thunder lead and the Pacers take advantage of a group that's starting to taste a championship.

While I've admittedly picked against the Pacers throughout the postseason (and looked like a fool because of it), it's hard to imagine them beating the Thunder more than once. The Thunder -2.5 series spread is an intriguing option, even at a juicier price of -130. However, the official pick is the Thunder to win in five games (+210).

Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.