What the odds say: Would Thunder rather play Pacers or Knicks in NBA Finals?
The Thunder are returning to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2012 after dismantling the Timberwolves in five games in the Western Conference finals. Who would Oklahoma City rather play to capture the city's first championship?
The short answer: It doesn't really matter. The Thunder are -650 to win the title on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet, meaning they'll be huge favorites over either the Pacers or Knicks. Oklahoma City entered the season at +300 to win the NBA Finals but quickly shortened its odds after proving its superiority. The Thunder moved up to -110 to win the title by the All-Star break; they were -150 after winning a league-best 68 games.
However, the odds suggest the Thunder should root for the Pacers to close their series out during Game 5 on Thursday night, rather than a 3-1 Knicks comeback.
OKC would be larger favorites against Indiana (Thunder -750/Pacers +525) than the team would be versus New York (Thunder -700/Knicks +500).
The Thunder answered every question about their youth and inexperience throughout their Western Conference playoff run. Many skeptics loudly doubted their championship chances, as there was no precedent for the NBA's youngest team also being the best. OKC then came back from a 2-1 deficit to defeat the Nuggets in seven games.
Secondary scoring plagued last year's playoff run. This season, Jalen Williams had 24 points, seven assists, and five rebounds in Game 7 against the Nuggets before averaging 22 points on 46% 3-point shooting versus Minnesota. Chet Holmgren also averaged 18 points and six boards in the Western Conference finals.
The Thunder have no flaws with their secondary scorers playing at an elite level. They finished the regular season with the second-best net rating in NBA history behind the 1995-96 Bulls. They statistically have one of the best defenses in league history.
OKC's suffocating defense swarms opposing guards with aggressive ball pressure, and the team rotates like a group of synchronized swimmers. Even the best offenses and players appear confused and disoriented when the Thunder turn up the defensive intensity.
They led the NBA in forced turnovers, steals, and deflections, and they were second in blocks. OKC also turned the ball over fewer times than any other team. Consistently dominating the possession battle has led the Thunder to the Finals. That's why it doesn't matter who their opponent is.
Oddsmakers have disrespected the Pacers throughout these playoffs. They entered their series against the Cavaliers and Knicks as underdogs. It might be the same if they advance to the Finals. However, the Thunder can negate any Pacers advantage.
Indiana's depth has dragged it this far. Its war-of-attrition strategy has worn out the Knicks due to full-court pressure and the team pushing the pace offensively with a 10-man rotation. But OKC is just as deep, with its bench averaging nearly the same points per game and more minutes per contest than the Pacers.
Indiana also hasn't played a defense anything close to the Thunder's, and Tyrese Haliburton hasn't faced the kinds of individual defenders that OKC will throw at him.
The Pacers have the second-best playoff offensive rating thanks to rapid ball movement and their running various actions per possession. But the Thunder rotate and recover efficiently, offsetting any potential advantage. Despite Haliburton's brilliance, Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, and others will take their turns disrupting his rhythm and dribble-drive ability.
Indiana would be running into a buzzsaw and a problematic matchup if it advances. The Knicks wouldn't have much of a chance either, especially after the exhaustion of a seven-game series. However, oddsmakers think the Knicks' star power would produce a slightly more competitive matchup. Regardless, the Thunder will soon reap the rewards of a masterclass in team building, finally culminating in a championship.
Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.