Eastern Conference 2nd-round betting preview
While the Western Conference first round features two Game 7s, the East second-round matchups have already been decided. Let's dive into each Eastern Conference contest and our favorite series-long picks.
No. 1 Cavaliers (-500) vs. No. 4 Pacers (+360)
The Indiana Pacers' miraculous Game 5 comeback victory over the Milwaukee Bucks, where they trailed by seven with 35 seconds remaining, provided them with extra rest before facing a Cleveland Cavaliers group that outscored the Miami Heat by 122 points in four games, the most lopsided playoff sweep in NBA history.
The Pacers and Cavs are stylistically similar. They both have strong depth and play a fast-paced brand that features everyone in their offenses. They both rarely turn the ball over. The Cavs have the best playoff offensive rating, while the Pacers have the second-best. During the regular season, the Cavs had the league's best offense and the Pacers had the ninth-best.
While these two teams play similarly, Cleveland's talent is far superior. Thus, it's a substantial favorite.
Many East first-round series were headlined by physicality and defense. This tune will be different, as free-flowing offense takes center stage. However, Cleveland also had a top-10 defense, while the Pacers were around league average.
Cleveland has the better backcourt with Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland and the better frontcourt with Evan Mobley, who's emerged as an All-NBA player, and Jarrett Allen. The Cavs have perfect complementary wings with De'Andre Hunter, Ty Jerome, and Max Strus. They made the league's second-most threes during the regular season.
Cleveland relies on the pick-and-roll more than most teams, but it's incredibly efficient at that play type. The Cavs led the NBA in pick-and-roll ball-handler frequency during the regular season and scored 1.33 points per possession, the NBA's best mark. Mitchell and Garland complement each other well and brilliantly navigate ball screens while consistently finding shots for themselves and their teammates.
The Cavs had the fifth-most possessions featuring the roll man in the pick-and-roll and scored 1.17 points per possession, the second-most behind the Denver Nuggets. Mobley emerged as a brilliant short-roll driver and playmaker. Head coach Kenny Atkinson allowed Mobley more freedom within his offense, leading to a career year in his fourth season.
The Pacers will experiment with different pick-and-roll coverages, but they don't have the defensive personnel to limit the Cavs' efficient options out of the play.
Indiana moves the ball at a high rate; it leads the playoffs in passes per game. It used its depth to its advantage against an injured and shallow Bucks group. But the Pacers don't have that edge against the Cavs, who averaged roughly the same amount of bench points per game as Indiana.
The Cavs are well-rested and have been one of the NBA's best teams all season. The Pacers are talented enough to win a couple of games, but they won't return to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Pick: Cavs in six (+425)
No. 2 Celtics (-900) vs. No. 3 Knicks (+500)
When the New York Knicks traded for Mikal Bridges last offseason, they had this series in mind. The only way to slow down the Boston Celtics' prolific offense is with big, athletic wings who can match up with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown on the perimeter. Pairing Bridges with OG Anunoby accomplished that, at least on paper.
Despite the series ending in five games, the Orlando Magic were surprisingly competitive against the Celtics in the opening round. Orlando’s defense utilized athletic wings to guard Boston’s stars.
The Magic wanted to limit the Celtics' 3-point attempts. During the regular season, the Celtics shot 48 threes per game, seven more than the second-highest-volume 3-point team. They made 17.8 per game, the most made threes per game in NBA history. In the first round against Orlando, Boston attempted only 31 threes per game and made 11.
The Magic limited the Celtics' threes by not over-helping on their drives. The Celtics generate threes through dribble penetration and drive-and-kicks. The Magic wanted to eliminate the kick part of the equation by allowing their on-ball defenders to guard the Celtics one-on-one without much help. Orlando could only do that because of their personnel and deep cast of reliable defenders. However, the Magic never had a chance in the series because of their lackluster offense and shooting woes.
The Magic unlocked a formula to slow down Boston's attack that teams theoretically should replicate. Realistically, though, that's not possible.
The Knicks don't have the Magic's personnel. Despite Anunoby and Bridges checking Tatum and Brown, the Knicks have two defensive liabilities: Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. Boston mercilessly targeted Towns in the pick-and-roll in their previous matchups.
Tatum, who's third in playoff points per game, scored more points on Towns (43) and Bridges (35) than any other primary defender who guarded him during the regular season, per NBA stats. Anunoby successfully defended Tatum throughout the season, holding him to 25% shooting from the field as his primary defender. But the Celtics will set constant ball screens to generate switches onto Towns and Brunson.
New York failed to stop the Celtics' avalanche of threes in their four matchups during the regular season, all of which Boston won. The Celtics drilled 21 threes per game on 44% shooting in those four games, up from their season average of 17.8 made threes on 36.8% shooting.
Boston has been so difficult to guard over the past two seasons because it consistently plays lineups with five guys who can space the floor as shooters and multiple players capable of breaking their defenders down off the dribble.
While defense is a major concern for New York, so is the other side of the ball. For all of Brunson's fourth-quarter brilliance, the Knicks' offense struggled against Detroit.
New York's offense is too one-dimensional and predictable. Brunson had an astronomically high usage rate in the opening round and attempted the most shots per game of any playoff player.
The Brunson and Towns pick-and-pop is an effective play, but the Knicks ran it less frequently in the opening round. Bridges had crucial moments throughout the series against the Detroit Pistons, but he's underutilized offensively. Josh Hart is not a shooting threat, leading to teams helping off the Knicks guard. New York's spacing is often poor, and there is little ball movement to shift the defense on too many possessions. The Knicks' starting lineup has a negative net rating this postseason.
New York doesn't maximize its offensive talent, and it's not good enough defensively to compete with the defending champs. If Jrue Holiday remains out with a hamstring injury - he missed the past three games - and Boston goes ice cold from deep, the Knicks will have a chance to make this a competitive series.
Otherwise, Boston is the significantly better team, explaining why it will remain the largest series favorite of any second-round matchup. New York will be lucky to win a game.
Pick: Celtics -2.5 series spread (-110)
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.