Skip to content

Can Mavs' offense carry them to a series-clinching win?

David Dow / National Basketball Association / Getty

The Timberwolves avoided a sweep against the Mavericks by finally performing in the clutch in Game 4. They still have to scale a mountain to become the first team in NBA history to come back from a 3-0 series deficit.

That said, Minnesota is a five-point home favorite to win Game 5 and extend the series. Here are some bets to target.

Mavericks team total: Over 102.5 points

Rudy Gobert played more drop coverage against Dallas' ball screens in Game 4 than in any previous game. The Wolves' defensive approach seemed to work: The Mavs scored 100 points - their fewest in a game this series.

Some of that can be attributed to Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving's cold shooting, though. The defense played a role, but Dallas' stars missed shots they typically make. They combined to shoot 13-for-39 from the field. P.J. Washington - the Mavs' third-leading scorer - shot 23% from the field.

Dallas scored at least 103 points in three of the four games this series. I'm unwilling to back the Mavs as underdogs, but their offense will respond Thursday.

The game's location is mostly irrelevant as Dallas' net rating is virtually the same at home or on the road this postseason.

Odds: -112

P.J. Washington: Over 12.5 points

Washington is shooting 22% from three this series and still averaging 12.3 points per game. He's made four of his last 19 attempts from long range, despite getting open looks with so much defensive attention on Doncic and Irving. He needs to knock them down at a higher clip for Dallas' offense to outlast Minnesota.

Karl-Anthony Towns was 3-for-22 from three through the first trio of games before he finally caught fire in Game 4. Washington could follow a similar pattern.

He leads the league in corner threes this postseason. Expect him to knock down those corner and wing looks in Game 5.

Odds: -105

Daniel Gafford: Over 1.5 blocks

Gafford and Dereck Lively II split center minutes before Lively injured his neck in Game 3, and more minutes meant Gafford's defensive production increased. Lively is questionable for Game 5 but, even if he's active, the Mavs should consider giving Gafford a larger workload.

The center's rim protection has been monumental for Dallas' defensive surge, as he prevents easy shots at the rim and dissuades drivers from entering the paint. Gafford leads the playoffs in blocked shots, and he's recorded at least three in the last three games.

Odds: -140

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.

Daily Newsletter

Get the latest trending sports news daily in your inbox