Thunder vs. Mavs betting preview: Clash of MVP candidates
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The Thunder swept the Pelicans and the Mavericks eliminated the depleted Clippers in the first round. While Los Angeles battled without Kawhi Leonard for most of the series, neither advancing team was truly tested.
That's about to change. This Mavericks-Thunder series - featuring two MVP candidates - will be intense and full of drama, and it could go the distance.
| Thunder | Mavs |
|---|---|
| -115 | -105 |
It's unprecedented for a group to have virtually no playoff experience and make a deep postseason run. The Thunder are the youngest team in NBA history to win a playoff series. Should a sweep over the Zion Williamson-less Pelicans count as postseason experience? Technically, it does, but New Orleans was never a serious threat without Zion.
Regardless, the Thunder have the pieces to contend for the foreseeable future; it may not be long before they're consistently the West favorites. But even the greatest dynasties went through playoff pain before they broke through, and Oklahoma City's storybook season won't end in fairy-tale fashion. This is the NBA, not Disney Channel.
The Mavs - particularly Luka Doncic - have the necessary postseason battle scars. This is the best group Doncic has had around him in his career and this is Dallas' best chance - given its path - to make the Finals since it drafted Doncic in 2018.
Kyrie Irving and Doncic are an unstoppable backcourt duo. Although the Mavs' identity is running constant high pick-and-roll's with Doncic, Irving's presence allows Doncic to play more off the ball.
The Mavs finally have a reliable supporting cast. Even if the Thunder blitz Doncic's on-ball screens, he usually makes the right read.
Dallas shot 33% from three in the opening round. That won't cut it against OKC, the league's best 3-point shooting team. However, the Mavericks have enough 3-point shooting on the wing to increase that percentage.
Maxi Kleber's absence hurts the Mavs. He's a stretch-forward who provided valuable bench minutes. Dallas doesn't have anyone with his skill set.
Here's an even bigger issue for Dallas: Doncic's health. By his standards, Doncic had a lackluster and inefficient opening round as he labored through a knee injury. The Clippers targeted Doncic defensively often, and while he became a much better on-ball defender this season, he could barely move laterally in certain games, resulting in various defensive collapses.
Dallas will try to hide Doncic defensively, but the Thunder will surely hunt him so Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams earn advantageous matchups. Although, three rest days should help Doncic before Tuesday's Game 1.
Assuming Doncic is healthy enough, this is an ideal matchup for the Mavs, who were one of the best defensive and rebounding teams down the season's stretch.
The Thunder create turnovers at a high clip, but the Mavs rarely turn the ball over, eliminating OKC's advantage. Dallas' bigs aren't towering, but the combo of Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively splitting center minutes creates a problem for the Thunder, who have little center depth behind rookie Chet Holmgren.
The Mavs have the third-best playoff offensive rebounding rate, cleaning up 31% of their misses. The Thunder, meanwhile, have the third-worst rebounding rate. The Mavs weren't a dominant offensive rebounding team during the regular season, but they can use the glass to their advantage against the undersized Thunder.
Gilegous-Alexander will put on a show, but the Thunder's chances will come down to SGA's teammates.
Josh Giddey shot 50% from three in the first round, but he's a career 31% 3-point shooter. Dallas often left him open for threes during its regular-season showdowns, and Giddey must shoot confidently if Dallas implements a similar strategy,
This is the Thunder's first real test. Maybe they erase historical trends and accomplish the improbable. OKC hasn't played its age all season, but it'll finally show against the experienced Mavs, who have the best player in the series.
Bet: Mavs (-105), Series to go 7 Games (+200)
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.