NBA Christmas Day best bets
Christmas has arrived! It's the best day of the regular-season calendar. While the NFL attempts to steal the NBA's spotlight by scheduling games on a day meant for basketball, Christmas will always be for phenomenal NBA games.
This year's no different, with five games on the schedule featuring some of the league's top teams and stars. Let's get to our best bets for each game. Merry Christmas, folks! Enjoy the hoops.
Bucks @ Knicks (+3.5, O/U 242)
The Bucks are 3-0 against the Knicks this season, winning by an average of 16 across the three games. They played on Saturday in New York, with Milwaukee winning 130-111.
Milwaukee's talent level is far superior to the Knicks. Without Mitchell Robinson and Jericho Sims, New York's size is an issue against a towering Bucks frontcourt featuring Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez.
If the Knicks have any chance of building on their second-round postseason appearance last season, the Bucks will likely be the team they need to get through. There's no better chance to finally figure it out than at home on Christmas Day.
Instead of playing a side, the under is the better bet. When these two teams met two days ago, the final score totaled 241. Christmas Day brings heightened intensity, and an early tipoff can lead to a poor offensive start.
After playing three times already, each unit should have a better idea of how to limit the opposing team's offense. The Knicks play at a plodding pace. If they're going to compete - the spread indicates they will - it'll be a defensive-oriented matchup, even if that's rare for Bucks games.
Best bet: Under 242 (-110)
Warriors @ Nuggets (-6.5, O/U 233.5)
The Warriors have rallied three straight wins and are finding a slight groove in the aftermath of the Draymond Green suspension. Klay Thompson is starting to make shots at a higher clip, and the Warriors' young players are making an impact.
Golden State still needs Stephen Curry to be nearly flawless to have a chance to compete, especially against top-tier competition. The Nuggets are the favorites to win the West but are a different team at home compared to on the road. The Nuggets are 11-2 at home this season.
While the Warriors' road struggles aren't as prominent as last season, they're 6-8 away from home. Curry has also historically struggled on Christmas Day. He hasn't played on Christmas since 2021, when he scored 33 in a win. However, Curry averages just 15.3 points in nine Christmas games in his career. There's always at least one Christmas game that becomes a blowout. I could see this being the one.
Best bet: Nuggets -6.5 and Steph Curry under 28.5 points (-115)
Celtics @ Lakers (+3, O/U 234.5)
The two most historic NBA franchises meet in Los Angeles on Christmas Day. The Lakers have lost five of their last seven since winning the inaugural In-Season Tournament.
The Celtics have the NBA's best record and are unquestionably the league's most talented team. I'm targeting an Austin Reaves prop instead of playing a side or total in this game.
Reaves has excelled since becoming the team's sixth man. He's now a front-runner for Sixth Man of the Year. Reaves is averaging a career-high 15.2 points per game despite playing under 30 minutes a night.
His points total is listed at 14.5, but he's scored at least 15 points in 10 of the last 11 games. The Lakers can't rely on just LeBron James and Anthony Davis to beat the Celtics. Reaves will have to play a major role for the Lakers to compete.
Best bet: Austin Reaves over 14.5 points (-130)
76ers @ Heat (-2.5, O/U 225.5)
I originally liked the 76ers to win with Joel Embiid in the lineup. However, when it was announced he was out, the line moved from Sixers -1.5 to +2.5. I would still lean the Sixers in this spot - even though Heat coach Erik Spoelstra is a perfect 8-0 on Christmas - but it's too much of a toss-up without Embiid.
The better bet is Bam Adebayo over 10.5 rebounds. He's averaging 9.6 on the season, but this matchup is significantly easier for him without Embiid. The Sixers are an elite rebounding team largely because of Embiid, who collects 11.7 per game.
Paul Reed will play extended minutes, but Adebayo should easily take advantage of the young center and dominate on the glass.
Best bet: Bam Adebayo over 10.5 rebounds (-120)
Mavericks @ Suns (-4.5, O/U 236.5)
The Suns aren't having the start to the season everyone in Phoenix hoped for when they acquired Bradley Beal to join Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. The Suns are 14-14 and in 11th place in the West. Beal's played in just six games this season and is out with an ankle injury until at least January.
The Suns have lost two straight, and there have been reports about certain players being upset with their current roles. The Suns took a huge gamble trading for Durant last year and then Beal this offseason. They have a lot to figure out before they can make the case that those deals have been worth it.
The Mavericks are stumbling without Kyrie Irving - who's out indefinitely with a heel contusion. They lost three straight before a dominant win over the Spurs on Saturday. However, I trust Luka Doncic and the Mavericks to show up in a big spot more than I do a Suns unit in disarray.
Doncic has recorded at least 10 assists in five of the last six games and eight of the last 10. The Suns have a suspect defense. They particularly struggle to stop opposing guards from penetrating in the lane. Doncic should drive on the Suns with ease, which will create passing opportunities for his teammates to cash in.
Best bet: Mavs +4.5 and Luka Doncic over 9.5 assists (-140)
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.