Summer League final betting preview: Backing Rockets as underdogs
The Las Vegas Summer League is down to its final two teams. The interest in the games has dwindled since the event tipped off 10 days ago and brought team and league personnel to Sin City for a convention dressed as a basketball event.
While the evaluation period is over for most scouts, executives, and media members, there's one final game and a champion to crown.
The No. 1-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers and No. 2-seeded Houston Rockets will play in the championship on Monday night at 9 p.m. ET. Both organizations have never won a Summer League title.
Cavaliers (-3) vs. Rockets
The Cavs (5-0) are 3-point favorites and -150, an implied probability of 60% to win. The Rockets (5-0) are +130.
The Cavs are 4-1 against the spread, while the Rockets are a perfect 5-0.
The Cavs narrowly defeated the Brooklyn Nets in an overtime thriller on Sunday. The Rockets handily beat the Utah Jazz in the other semifinal.
Despite not being one of the favorites coming in, Houston had perhaps the best roster of all 32 teams. It started with highly touted stars Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, and Tari Eason, all of whom shined in their brief stints. Thompson was injured in the opener and never returned. Smith and Eason were shut down after two games, proving they were too good for the competition.
Houston's roster was great because it didn't rely on its stars. The Rockets illustrated their terrific depth in the run to the championship. Cam Whitmore, the Rockets' No. 20 overall pick in 2023 and the likely Summer League MVP, is the team's best player.
If Summer League is any indication - oftentimes it isn't - Whitmore was a steal and many teams will regret passing on the lottery talent.
Whitmore poured in 25 points in Sunday's semifinal. That followed a 26-point showing in the team's final game of the regular schedule. He's getting to his spots and scoring at will against evidently inferior competition.
Whitmore's also getting help from lesser-known teammates. Fellow Villanova product Jermaine Samuels has been a pleasant surprise on both ends. He's averaging 16.7 points over the last three games. Fellow starters Nate Hinton and Trevor Hudgins are averaging 15.7 and 21.7 points, respectively, in the last three games, all of which have been without Smith and Eason.
Both Hudgins and Hinton are fringe NBA players but are making names for themselves in Vegas.
The Cavs aren't filled with marquee prospects, either. A collection of draftees and G League players have propelled them to an undefeated stint. Cleveland is led by 2023 second-round selection Emoni Bates, who is averaging 16.8 points in Summer League. Isaiah Mobley played a few sporadic minutes for the Cavs last season but has been a revelation this summer. He's averaging 15.8 points, including a 23-point outing in the semifinal.
Sharife Cooper shined in his Summer League stint. He's been a great off-ball complement to Bates. In Cooper's four games, he's averaging 13.5 points. However, he didn't play in Sunday's semifinal. It's unclear if it was injury-related or if he was simply resting. His status for Monday's final is undetermined. The Cavs narrowly escaped the Nets without Cooper, but the Rockets are a different beast. If he's unavailable, Houston has an advantage.
A quick note about the over/under: The line opened at 189 and has moved to 190.5 as of Monday. That number has gone over in all five of the Rockets' games but just two out of five of the Cavs' games.
Before Summer League started, the Rockets were my long-shot pick to win at +2000, and then again before the playoffs, I picked Houston at +300. I'm not jumping off the Rockets now. They are an underdog for the first time in six games. They aren't just going to cover. The Rockets will win outright and leave Vegas as champs.
The Rockets have a free-flowing offense and play with a ton of pace, while the Cavs' style is slower and their success has been predicated on solid defense. Houston is averaging 110.2 points per game, while Cleveland's at 97.8.
A big reason for that is the Rockets attempt almost seven more shots per game than the Cavs. I expect the Rockets to play fast while outpacing and outscoring the Cavs.
Houston has the best player in the game and the deeper roster, and with Cooper's status unknown for the Cavs, the Rockets have the ingredients to pull off the upset.
Pick: Rockets +130