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Lillard's next team: Who betting odds suggest will trade for Blazers star

Sam Forencich / National Basketball Association / Getty

The Damian Lillard-Trail Blazers partnership is coming to an end. After multiple offseasons of the franchise and its all-time leading scorer playing cat and mouse, Lillard finally requested a trade last week.

Lillard has played in Portland for his entire 11-year NBA career and led the club to eight consecutive playoff appearances, including one Western Conference finals appearance.

However, the Blazers have missed the playoffs in back-to-back campaigns. Lillard averaged a career-high 32.2 points per game this past season, but a lackluster supporting cast prevented Portland from making any noise.

The likelihood of Lillard finishing his career in Portland seems very small. It's just a matter of where he lands.

Lillard's next team - odds

Team Odds
Heat -300
Celtics +550
Blazers +700
Clippers +900
Sixers +1000
Nets +1200

Why the Heat are the favorites

The Heat are the most logical fit for Lillard from a basketball standpoint, and Lillard specifically requested to be sent there. However, multiple reports indicate the Blazers are underwhelmed with Miami's offer, which includes Tyler Herro, Nikola Jovic, Kyle Lowry, and multiple picks.

The haul for the best player in franchise history should be greater. But there are only so many suitors in play.

Lillard is set to make $45 million next year, $48 million the following season, and $58 million in 2025-26. Some teams are hesitant to take on that salary for an aging star, while others simply lack the cap space.

Miami could ship off younger players and add Lillard to a core of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, who just led the team to the NBA Finals as an 8-seed.

Lillard scored 1.13 points per possession as a pick-and-roll ball-handler last season, which ranked in the 93rd percentile. Adebayo scored 1.14 points per possession as the roll man. The two paired together would be devastating for opposing defenses. Lillard is also a seamless fit because he can play off the ball alongside Butler. Lillard shot 51.6% on assisted 3-point field goals last season.

The Heat currently have the fourth-best odds to win the Eastern Conference at +600. Those would shorten considerably if Lillard joined.

Why Portland is still in play

Before Lillard's trade request, the Blazers were -300 to retain Lillard. They've since jumped to +700.

The Blazers don't have to make a move if they don't get an offer to their liking. After all, Lillard still has three guaranteed years left on his contract.

In a star-driven league, precedent suggests that when a player asks out, he's usually sent to his preferred destination. Portland should do what's best for the franchise's future, but it doesn't have leverage. If Lillard isn't traded, or if he's moved to a team he doesn't want to play for, he can refuse to play.

Other teams could put together better trade packages, but if an organization isn't sure it would have Lillard's full commitment, it likely won't even engage.

How the Nets or Celtics could land Lillard

The Nets are constantly discussed as a landing spot for Lillard despite having the sixth-best odds to do so. A move would pair Lillard with Mikal Bridges, who has solidified himself as a bona fide star.

Brooklyn has few other worthy assets to surrender in return for Lillard, though. Any package would be centered around a multitude of draft picks along with Spencer Dinwiddie and perhaps Cam Thomas.

Bridges played second or third fiddle for the first few years of his career with the Suns. He broke through as a worthy primary option in his 27 games in Brooklyn this past season, averaging 26.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.7 assists.

Pairing a budding superstar with an aging one could yield great results if surrounded by the right supporting cast. But does Brooklyn want to mortgage its future for a soon-to-be 33-year-old on an enormous contract?

The Celtics have the second-best odds to acquire Lillard at +550. They could put together a solid package centered around Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams, a plethora of first-round picks, and other complementary pieces. But taking on Lillard's contract with a massive extension for Jaylen Brown looming is financially unfeasible if the team does indeed want to extend Brown, who's seven years younger than Lillard.

Meanwhile, the 76ers could get creative and make a run at Lillard, but it doesn't appear they're willing to part with young cornerstones.

While many expect Lillard to end up in Miami, it's looking increasingly likely that the Heat will need to include a third team to improve Portland's return in the trade.

Lillard's fate will determine the immediate and long-term future of multiple franchises, which is why this situation may not be resolved anytime soon.

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