NBA regular-season win total best bets: Pistons, Kings to top low numbers

While the new NBA season brings all 30 teams back in action for the first time in months, it also provides bettors the chance to make some money on year-long win totals. Predicting game-in, game-out picks can have bettors fall victim to circumstance or poor luck, but extrapolating an opinion over the course of a whole season allows for tons of course correction.

With that, we take a look at our six best over or under win total bets entering the campaign.

Charlotte Hornets: Over/Under 34.5

The Hornets hit rock bottom in an all-time bad 7-59 campaign in 2011-12 but have largely made it over the 30-win hump every year since. However, after the team lost Miles Bridges and Montrezl Harrell in the offseason, few scoring options remain next to star LaMelo Ball.

With Ball slated to miss the start of the season with an ankle injury, expect the Hornets to get off to a slow start. From there, a lack of talent may see Charlotte fall out of contention in a stacked Eastern Conference. Don't be surprised for a perennial play-in contender to be in tanking mode in the season's final weeks.

Pick: Under 34.5

Dallas Mavericks: Over/Under 48.5

After losing guard Jalen Brunson to the Knicks in free agency, the Mavericks are short on playmakers in the backcourt next to Luka Doncic. Behind reliable veteran Spencer Dinwiddie, Dallas will need to depend on unproven players like Josh Green or rookie Jaden Hardy for offense.

While the Mavericks got significantly bigger in the frontcourt with JaVale McGee and Christian Wood, the latter's defensive struggles don't actually make them much better on that end overall. With the Clippers, Nuggets, Timberwolves, and even Pelicans primed to pass the Mavericks, a near-50-win season seems unlikely.

Pick: Under 48.5

Detroit Pistons: Over/Under 29.5

While the Pistons may not be a playoff team this season, a marked improvement of their previous 23-59 record should be in the cards. Last year's No. 1 pick Cade Cunningham is primed for a sophomore leap, Saddiq Bey is turning into one of the most underrated players in the NBA, and new acquisition Bojan Bogdanovic fits as a key veteran presence.

Detroit will surely have its growing pains, especially if it plays rookies Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren for long stretches, but the sheer talent on this team surpasses that of a sub-30-win squad. Skill, mixed with Dwane Casey's defensive-minded coaching, should help this team remain competitive throughout the year.

Pick: Over 29.5

Milwaukee Bucks: Over/Under 52.5

The Bucks were two wins away from surpassing this year's lofty win total last season, despite star Giannis Antetokounmpo missing 15 games and every rotation member sitting out at least 10 contests. While injuries can't be predicted, it's likely at least one of Milwaukee's core has a clean bill of health this year.

On top of that, Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer is notorious for playing his starters heavy minutes in the regular season, even if he's pulled back from that approach slightly in recent years. The franchise has cleared the win percentage needed to top 53 victories (calculations due to COVID-shortened seasons) in three straight campaigns prior to last, so expect more of the same in 2022-23.

Pick: Over 52.5

Sacramento Kings: Over/Under 33.5

Naturally, if the Kings make this list, the pick has to be under, right? Despite owning major North American sports' longest active playoff drought, the Kings have at least a shot at a play-in berth with a relatively talented roster led by point guard De'Aaron Fox and big man Domantas Sabonis.

To that point, Sacramento has actually topped the win percentage required to win at least 34 games in three of the last four seasons and currently possesses its best recent roster by a fair margin. Barring the Kings finding a way to "Kings" their way out of a competitive season, the over is the right play here.

Pick: Over 33.5

Utah Jazz: Over/Under 24.5

The Jazz spent the summer completely tearing down their roster, trading away franchise cornerstones Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert while putting the rest of their veteran pieces on the chopping block. The Jazz are now committed to a full rebuild, loaded with draft picks and young, unproven players.

While there are some decent pieces on the team, remember, someone has to be this squad's best player. A steady diet of Collin Sexton isolation isn't going to propel Utah past many teams in the brutal Western Conference. Plus, the Jazz are bound to slowly rest all their useful players as the season comes to a close just to have a chance at French phenom Victor Wembanyama with the top pick in the 2023 draft.

Pick: Under 24.5