NBA Finals Game 1 best bet: Warriors have history on their side vs. Celtics

The NBA Finals tips off Thursday and we have you covered with a full preview of the series between the Warriors and Celtics, and our best bets to win Finals MVP. But what about the game itself?

Here's how we're betting Game 1 of this series:

Celtics @ Warriors (-3.5, 212.5), 9 p.m. ET

If you read our series preview earlier this week, you know how much we like the Celtics to win based on their matchup advantages down low and against the Warriors' perimeter shooting. But that doesn't automatically spell a Game 1 win.

This is a notoriously tough spot for the visitors, who are coming off an exhausting seven-game series against the Heat that nearly ended with a last-minute collapse. Historically, that's been bad news for the following series. Over the last 20 seasons, teams coming off a Game 7 win are 20-33-2 against the spread (37.7%) in the subsequent Game 1, which includes a 2-8-1 ATS mark in the last 11 tries.

It's even trickier for road teams in this spot, who own a 14-19-1 ATS record (42.4%) with just nine outright wins in 34 games. Those teams have been outscored by a whopping 9.9 points per game with six double-digit losses in their last 10 contests. The evidence is overwhelming: a Game 7 win is the quickest way to a Game 1 loss.

We saw that exact scenario play out in the conference finals, with these two teams on opposite ends. The Celtics blew out the Bucks in Game 7 of their second-round series but clearly ran out of gas in an 11-point loss in Miami. A day later, the Warriors cruised to a 25-point win against the exhausted Mavericks, who were fresh off their own Game 7 blowout win.

That win extended Golden State's incredible 21-2 record in Game 1 under Steve Kerr, whose group has enjoyed exactly one week off ahead of Thursday's series opener. Fresh legs are the ultimate advantage in the postseason, and while too much rest may seem concerning, those fears are overblown: teams with seven-plus days between series are 30-21 ATS (58.8%) since 2003, which includes three double-digit victories by Kerr's Warriors.

There are real concerns for this Warriors' offense against easily the best defense it's faced in the postseason, and Boston has the talent to take advantage on the other end, too. But this likely won't be the sharpest version of the C's we'll see in this series, and at such a short price, there's value on Golden State continuing its ridiculous dominance in series openers.

Pick: Warriors -3.5.

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].