NBA teams to buy, sell after All-Star break
Four months of basketball are now in the rearview, but so many questions remain as we head into the final stretch of the season. Will the Nets' star trio be available for the postseason, and how effective will they be? Can the favored Suns finish what they started even with Chris Paul's injury? Are the 76ers for real?
The NBA title market is priced tightly near the top - what's new? - but there's still value to be had further down the board, while some flashy teams are worth avoiding altogether. Here are the teams I'm buying and selling after the All-Star break:
Buy: Milwaukee Bucks (+600)
The Bucks have felt like the forgotten front-runners all season long, always priced just behind the Warriors, Nets, or Suns near the top of the oddsboard. Let's not forget how dangerous they can be in the playoffs.
Giannis Antetokounmpo was unstoppable during the 2021 postseason, and he's playing as well as he has at any point in his career - including both of his MVP campaigns. Milwaukee has struggled in his absence, losing six of his 11 missed games, but the team is still just 2.5 games back of the top of a wide-open Eastern Conference.
Don't forget about center Brook Lopez, who has been out since the beginning of the campaign but is expected to be back by the playoffs. He was key to the Bucks' title run a year ago and will mask some of this team's biggest deficiencies down low. There's still value on the defending champions at this price.
Sell: Brooklyn Nets (+600)
The Nets are the biggest boom-bust proposition in the league. If you think they're going to win the title, I can't fault you for it. But is it really worth betting on it at such a short price, given all the uncertainty surrounding this roster?
Kevin Durant hasn't played since Jan. 15 and is always a risk to miss time in the postseason. Ben Simmons hasn't played at all, and it's an open question how he'd perform in crunch time given what we saw the last time he was in that spot. And it's yet to be determined how available Kyrie Irving will be in the playoffs, even without considering his own injury woes.
If the Nets' odds were even a shade longer, it could be worth the risk. Again, they can easily win it all. But there are too many red flags to justify such a bet.
Buy: Memphis Grizzlies (+2200)
I've been aboard the Grizzlies bandwagon for months, and it's taken the market a while to catch up. Memphis has been the NBA's most profitable team against the spread (40-20 ATS) behind the sensational play of Ja Morant, who is making a compelling long-shot case for MVP in just his third season.
His superstar ascent gives these Grizzlies the real title upside that most upstart contenders are missing, but the rest of the rotation deserves your respect, too. Dillon Brooks and Desmond Bane have emerged as two of the game's better young two-way players, while Jaren Jackson and Steven Adams give Memphis enough muscle down low to hold up against potential first-round opponents such as the Nuggets or Timberwolves.
Only two teams have posted a better record than the Grizzlies (41-19), and only four have a better net rating (plus-4.5). Yet Memphis finds itself as a distant seventh choice on the title oddsboard. That, my friends, is value.
Sell: Utah Jazz (+1600)
In many ways, this year's Jazz are just a worse version of the same team we've seen flame out in the postseason year in and year out. So what, exactly, makes this one worth betting at this price?
A year after leading the league in net rating (plus-9.0) ahead of an eventual playoff collapse, Utah ranks second as of Thursday (plus-6.9) with mostly the same cast of characters. The main difference: an even worse defense. The Jazz rank 10th in defensive rating (109.0) despite another Herculean effort from center Rudy Gobert, whose team falls apart when he's not on the floor.
Historically, Gobert's presence down low has been a liability in the postseason when opposing teams isolate him in space or force his teammates into situations he can't clean up. Given that Utah's defense was the issue last year - and its offensive approach remains virtually unchanged - I'm having a tough time feeling inspired to make a bet this time around.
Buy: Boston Celtics (+2500)
Is nobody paying attention to what the Celtics have done over the past month? Since Jan. 23, when Marcus Smart returned to bring Boston's rotation to full strength, this group has won 11 of 13 games and outscored opponents by a ridiculous 20.1 points per 100 possessions. That's more than double the mark by the second-place Grizzlies (9.0) over that stretch.
The Celtics' defense has been particularly impressive, holding teams to 96.2 points per 100 possessions and an NBA-low 42.9% from the floor. That smothering play has helped Boston net eight double-digit victories in this 13-game run, including a whopping six wins by at least 29 points.
With Smart and Robert Williams expected to be in the lineup out of the break, the Celtics could make a legitimate run at the No. 1 seed, or at least a home-court spot in the East. Even if they don't, this is a wide-open conference ready to be seized by the hottest team in April and May.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.