Should you bet the Jazz to win the NBA title after historic start?

In an NBA season defined by surprises - from cancellations to late scratches to unexpected MVP contenders - it's only fitting that the best team through the first two months is one that few people saw coming.

The Jazz opened as 30-1 title long shots in October and were priced as high as 50-1 at some shops during the offseason. Four months later, they own the NBA's best record (23-5) and have seen their title odds slashed to 12-1 - the fifth-shortest price at theScore Bet - after a historic start to the season.

Utah has covered 18 of its last 20 games against the spread, one game shy of the best run by any team since 1990, according to ESPN Stats and Information. The Jazz's 21-7 ATS record is the second-best mark through 28 games in the last 25 years, and their straight-up record is tied for 15th in that span. Six of the 14 teams that had better starts reached the NBA Finals, and five won it all.

If the Jazz follow in those clubs' footsteps, they'd be unlike any champions in recent memory. Is it worth laying a short title price after such a dominant start?

Peaking too early?

Through 28 games, Utah has clearly looked like the best team in the NBA. As of Wednesday, its net rating (+9.2) is the best in the league by a wide margin, and the team ranks top four in both offensive rating (116.6) and defensive rating (107.4).

How much does all that matter in predicting title success? Historically, not a whole lot. Fourteen of the last 24 teams to lead the league in net rating at the All-Star break - as the Jazz likely will - failed to reach the NBA Finals, and seven of the nine teams that did win the title had net ratings above Utah's current mark.

Since the Lakers' three-peat in 2001-02, eight teams have led the league with a net rating below plus-10.0 at the All-Star break. Two of them reached the NBA Finals, and only the 2006-07 Spurs won the title in what was considered a down year for the league. The lesson? Only truly dominant teams sustain this level of success from beginning to end.

Look no further than the 2019-20 Jazz, who went 15-2 ATS from Dec. 21 to Jan. 25 with a plus-13.1 net rating, which was easily the best mark in the NBA during that stretch. The team lost 19 of its next 34 games before losing in the first round of the playoffs.

Compare that to this team, which has boasted a plus-13.5 net rating during its stellar 20-game run with virtually the same roster. Are we sure this year's group is built to avoid a similar late-season collapse?

Live by the three

Conventional wisdom long suggested that a jump-shooting team couldn't win an NBA championship. The Warriors dispelled that notion in the mid-2010s, but the Jazz are testing the theory on a whole new level.

Utah is currently generating 43.4% of its scoring through 3-point shots, which is the highest mark in at least 25 years and likely the highest in NBA history - yes, even higher than every Rockets team during the "Moreyball" era. There is no precedent for what the Jazz are doing, but similar approaches have rarely borne fruit in the playoffs.

No team since 1996-97 has led the NBA in percentage of points from 3-pointers and won the title, and only two of the 24 teams to lead the league in that category reached the Finals. Similarly, only one team has led the playoffs in that stat and won it all, with many failing in spectacular fashion (see: 2017-18 Rockets). On average, title teams over that span have ranked 13th in percentage of points from 3-pointers during the regular season. The Lakers ranked 25th last year and won a championship behind a dominant inside attack.

The closest comparable to this Jazz team is the 2014-15 Warriors, who finished second in the regular season and first in the playoffs in percentage of scoring from deep. But that Golden State squad also ranked second in the NBA in assist rate (65.9%), and 71.5% of its deep attempts were catch-and-shoot threes. Utah ranks 24th in assist rate (58%) and has a far lower catch-and-shoot rate (63%), while only the Trail Blazers average more 3-point attempts off the dribble than the Jazz's 15.5.

While that seemingly bodes well for this team's ability to create shots in the playoffs, similarly constructed offenses have fallen apart without a more reliable diet of easy scoring chances. It also puts immense pressure on Utah's guards to produce in an environment that is notoriously harsh to teams without at least one offensive superstar.

Stars win championships

The key to Utah's title hopes is the continued development of Donovan Mitchell, who ranks 17th in the league with a career-high 24.2 points per game as of Wednesday. The 24-year-old has seemed comfortable shouldering an even heavier scoring load: He's upped his attempts from 18.6 to 22.4 per game in the last five games without Mike Conley, and Utah has won all five contests by an average of 13 points.

Can he take yet another step ahead of the postseason? The last player to lead a title team scoring fewer than 25 points per game was Stephen Curry (23.8) in 2014-15 - when average team scoring was more than 12 points lower per game. Meanwhile, the 2013-14 Spurs are the only champions this decade without a top-10 scorer during the regular season.

We've seen Mitchell light it up in the postseason - he averaged 36.3 points with two 50-point games in last year's first-round loss to the Nuggets. He's had some notable failures, too. His 36% shooting doomed the Jazz in the second round of the 2018 playoffs, and a 4-for-22 performance in an elimination spot in 2019 briefly cast doubt on his star trajectory.

Mitchell has mostly dispelled that doubt with his play of late, and if he can replicate his 2020 postseason form, he'll ease concerns about so-so metrics and an overreliance on 3-pointers as it relates to a potential champion. If he can't, Jazz bettors may regret paying such a steep price for an unproven product.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.