NBA MVP odds: LeBron the clear favorite, but is he worth the price?
It's been eight years since LeBron James won his fourth and most recent MVP award in 2012-13. Through the first eight weeks of this season, he's the clear favorite to add to his collection.
The Lakers superstar is +160 to win his fifth MVP award this campaign, clearly ahead of dominant centers Nikola Jokic (+350) and Joel Embiid (+400) and preseason favorite Luka Doncic (+400). Former MVP winners Kevin Durant (+800), Stephen Curry (+800), and Giannis Antetokounmpo (+1000) are the only other players priced shorter than 30-1.
James has certainly done enough to merit consideration. He's one of three players averaging at least 25.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 8.0 assists, leading the Lakers to the NBA's second-best record (21-7) through the first two months of the season. He's also gotten it done on the defensive end, ranking 10th in ESPN's defensive real plus-minus (plus-2.24) and second in defensive win shares (plus-1.8).
Still, it's hard not to feel like his short price is getting a bit of a legacy boost. His stats across the board are similar - if not worse - to those from his 2019-20 season when he finished second in MVP voting. His team's record is worse than it was at this point last year, and his numbers pale in comparison to each of his previous four MVP campaigns.
In fact, they don't stand up to some of his contemporaries this season. Jokic is averaging more points (26.5), rebounds (11.5), assists (8.7), steals (1.5), and blocks (0.7) with a better shooting percentage (56.4%) for the surging Nuggets, and his advanced numbers easily outpace any player in the league. Embiid ranks third in points per game (29.6) and second in win shares per 48 minutes (0.279), and his 76ers are 17-5 when he plays and 1-5 when he doesn't.
There's still more than half of the season left to be played, which makes it tough to lay such a short price on any player - let alone James, who ranks near the top, but not at the top, of most statistical categories. The better bet right now is Jokic or Embiid, both of whom have been integral to their teams' early success with dominant statistical cases to support it.
Here are the updated MVP odds for every player priced at 100-1 or shorter:
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| LeBron James | +160 |
| Nikola Jokic | +350 |
| Joel Embiid | +400 |
| Luka Doncic | +400 |
| Kevin Durant | +800 |
| Stephen Curry | +800 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | +1000 |
| Damian Lillard | +3000 |
| Kawhi Leonard | +3000 |
| James Harden | +5000 |
| Donovan Mitchell | +6000 |
| Jayson Tatum | +7500 |
| Paul George | +7500 |
| Anthony Davis | +10000 |
| Devin Booker | +10000 |
| Kyrie Irving | +10000 |
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.