Breaking down the deals, and non-deals, of NBA's rookie extension deadline

With Monday's extension deadline in the rearview, let's break down the deals that were reached before the buzzer, and those that weren't, for players coming off their rookie contracts.

Magic extend Isaac (4 years, $80M), Fultz (3 years, $50M)

If Isaac can fully recover from his recent ACL and meniscus tear and continue the upward trajectory he was on before the injury, this deal should wind up looking very good for the Magic.

The 23-year-old was one of the best defensive players in basketball when healthy last season, using his ungodly combination of length, speed, and agility to swallow up opposing ball-handlers, stymie post-ups, and swoop in from the weak side to demolish shots at the rim. With Isaac on the floor, Orlando was the league's second-best team at deterring field-goal attempts in the restricted area and defended at a top-three rate overall. He was also starting to fill in the outlines of his offensive skill set, adding flashes of a face-up game to a more consistent stationary jump shot.

Health has been a recurring issue for Isaac. He's missed 101 games across his first three NBA seasons. His latest knee injury will cost him the entire 2020-21 campaign, which means the Magic are actually paying him $80 million for three years. Given that Isaac has legitimate Defensive Player of the Year upside, that's a worthwhile gamble. The risk/security balance seems about right on both sides.

The Fultz deal strikes a similar balance, with the Magic mitigating the risk on their end with a team option for the third year. Still, it's a big show of belief in a player whose ceiling will top out at low-end starter as long as his jump shot remains busted.

There were plenty of encouraging signs from the former No. 1 pick last season, be it his refined half-court playmaking, open-floor prowess, improved at-rim finishing, or positive shooting indicators like his 73% mark from the free-throw line and 42% clip on mid-range jumpers. Fultz and Nikola Vucevic formed the league's fifth-most prolific assist tandem.

Given his size, athleticism, body control, defensive instincts, and passing vision, getting back to being even a league-average 3-point shooter could transform Fultz into one of the more dynamic combo guards in the game and make this deal a bargain. But he's a long way from getting to that point, and, for now, his complete lack of accuracy and willingness from beyond the arc makes him a liability off the ball while giving defenders license to duck under screens against him in the pick-and-roll.

All told, this is a lot of money to commit to a pair of players facing so much uncertainty, especially when Orlando could've waited to see how their markets developed in restricted free agency next offseason. The Magic may be jumping the gun and consigning themselves to several more years of mediocrity in the process. But for a team in their position, it makes sense to pre-empt the market with an upside swing, and it's entirely plausible that Isaac and Fultz will reward their faith. - Joe Wolfond

Spurs extend Derrick White (4 years, $73M)

With a soft rebuild on the horizon, the Spurs are cementing White, their 29th overall pick in 2017, as a key piece of their future. We can only hope to see that commitment reflected in his playing time because, after a mini-breakout in 2018-19, White's minutes inexplicably decreased as he moved to a bench role last season.

However, in the Disney bubble, White was finally let loose as a starter and offensive initiator, allowing him to show what he's capable of. During the eight-game seeding stage, the 26-year-old averaged 18.9 points and five assists on 63.6% true shooting, upping his efficiency despite a huge jump in usage. He cranked up his 3-point volume and pick-and-roll frequency and looked comfortable orchestrating one of the bubble's best offenses.

For the season, White shot 38% on above-the-break threes, and the Spurs averaged 1.12 points on possessions where he either shot or passed directly to a shooter out of the pick-and-roll, ranking second in the NBA to Damian Lillard, according to Synergy. It's worth remembering all that when you look at this contract relative to the pedestrian counting stats that resulted from his meager 24.7 minutes a night. He still needs to prove his efficiency can scale up to a larger role, but it's clear he has untapped offensive upside, which will become all the more important if or when DeMar DeRozan's tenure in San Antonio comes to an end.

For all his encouraging offensive growth, White's biggest strength lies at the other end of the floor, where he's a plus defender across three positions, an elite charge-taker, and one of the league's best shot-blocking guards. His ability to contain dribble penetration helps the Spurs own a dramatically lower rate of opponent shot attempts at the rim. His on-court impact in that category placed him in the 93rd percentile in each of the last two seasons, per Cleaning the Glass. White and Dejounte Murray should be one of the league's best defensive backcourts for the next few years.

Add it all up, and White promises to be an impact two-way player for the life of this extension. With a starting job, extra playing time, and more on-ball reps, he'll prove well worth the price tag. - Wolfond

Raptors extend OG Anunoby (4 years, $72M)

Given some of the extensions discussed on this page and the fact that a suddenly barren 2021 free-agent class means Anunoby could've commanded a massive offer sheet as a restricted free agent, Toronto has to be thrilled about this deal.

Worst case scenario: The Raptors locked up one of the league's emerging 3-and-D standouts for market value. At 23 years old, Anunoby might already be the NBA's best on-ball defender. He's long and strong enough to take on the assignments of LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard, but quick and smart enough to hang with James Harden on the perimeter. He's also shot better than 36% on three 3-point attempts per game over his first three seasons, topping out at 39% last year.

Best case scenario: Anunoby continues to expand his offensive toolkit - which now includes some shot-creation and off-the-dribble creativity - and the Raptors just signed a near max-level player through the first portion of his prime. A fourth-year player option also gives Anunoby a chance to test free agency for the first time as a 27-year-old in 2024.

Either way, excluding player options, Toronto now has the trio of Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, and Fred VanVleet under team control for at least the next three years, giving the Raptors a solid, two-way core that keeps the team competitive, and, at worst, a move away from championship contention. It's even more impressive when you consider that trio was assembled using the 27th pick in 2016 (after a 56-win season that included a conference finals appearance) and the 23rd pick in 2017 (after a 51-win season and second-round appearance). - Joseph Casciaro

Clippers extend Luke Kennard (4 years, $64M)

The Clippers' belief in Kennard's upside was evident when the team traded Landry Shamet to acquire him this past offseason. With a $64-million extension, Los Angeles has doubled down on that belief.

Kennard's payday will surprise many casual observers, but the former Piston (and 12th overall pick) has shown flashes of his potential that could make this a good deal for the Clippers. He's a 24-year-old, 40% 3-point shooter who just averaged roughly 16 points and four assists in his third season. Kennard can shoot the lights out, handle the ball, create for himself and others, and owns an impressive arsenal of feathery floaters when he gets in the lane.

If he can stay healthy and emerge as a core piece on a contending Clippers team, this will go down as good business. Of course, that's a big if. What looks like a merely surprising overpay now could be disastrous in a couple of years if Kennard can't find the consistency that has eluded him as a pro.

Kennard's dealt with issues in both knees since his rookie season and was limited to just 28 games last year due to tendinitis. Between that checkered injury history and some obvious defensive deficiencies, this contract comes with more risk than the other agreements reached Monday. - Casciaro

Lakers extend Kyle Kuzma (3 years, $40M)

This deal is probably more favorable for Kuzma than it is for the Lakers. Still, it's about the going rate for capable bench scorers these days, and there's a decent chance another team would've bested this offer if L.A. allowed him to hit restricted free agency.

For now, Kuzma is better in theory than in practice. His reputation suggests he can effectively create his own offense, but reality tells a different story. While the Lakers often leaned on him as a creator in LeBron-less lineups last season, he didn't exactly prove worthy of the task. Kuzma had success driving to the basket, but he was ineffective as a playmaker and one of the league's worst pull-up shooters. He hit just 25.4% of his above-the-break threes and finished the season with more turnovers than assists. All of which made his transition to a bench role a bumpy one.

Kuzma showed meaningful growth on the defensive end with a redoubled commitment to staying in a deep stance and moving his feet on the perimeter. He'd previously been caught between positions, but his refined approach made him a viable defender against opposing stretch fours and even as a switch defender. Those improvements, if he can build on or even sustain them, will go a long way toward justifying this deal.

Dennis Schroder and Montrezl Harrell's additions should allow Kuzma to slide into a complementary offensive role on the second unit. On the one hand, that should make Kuzma a more efficient scorer. On the other, does it really make sense to pay a complementary bench scorer $13 million a year?

The Lakers may simply be hoping Kuzma turns into a trade chip down the road. Having a youngish player of his ilk on a mid-sized deal can prove pretty helpful when upgrading a capped-out roster. - Wolfond

Pelicans fail to extend Lonzo Ball

What a fascinating season Ball and the Pelicans are in for.

With Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Steven Adams, and Eric Bledsoe locked up long term, the Pelicans need all the shooting they can get. Sure, Ball's dazzling playmaking and impressive defense at the point of attack are important contributors to team success, but Williamson and Ingram need space to operate and can't afford to play with a point guard who cramps that space rather than creates it.

If Ball's the injury-prone player he was through his first two seasons, or he's the anemic offensive player who averaged 10 points and five assists on 37-34-50 shooting through the first 25 games of last season, it's tough to envision a future for him in New Orleans.

If he can stay healthy as he did last year and continues the progress he made in averaging roughly 14 points and nine assists on 43-41-65 shooting over a 29-game stretch between late-December and early-March, then Ball's fit alongside Williamson and Ingram is tenable.

In the latter scenario, the 23-year-old would likely command quite the payday as an RFA, especially considering the amount of cap space on the market compared to the few available stars. Can the Pelicans really stomach a massive contract for Ball next summer, given the team's current cap sheet? - Casciaro

Hawks fail to extend John Collins

From a purely statistical standpoint, it seems ludicrous a young team on the rise would fail to secure a 23-year-old big man coming off a season in which he averaged 21.6 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks on 58-40-80 shooting.

There's a lot of nuances to dig through, however.

First and foremost, Collins' defensive shortcomings mean his on-court value pales in comparison to his statistical production. Collins believes his video-game numbers should be rewarded with a max contract, while the Hawks - and most prudent observers - know at least some of that production is akin to empty calories.

Collins also faced a 25-game suspension for violating the league's anti-drug policy last season after testing positive for growth hormone-releasing peptide-2.

Lastly, the Hawks spent money on (among others) Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic this offseason. With Trae Young the crown jewel of Atlanta's future, the last thing this team needs is another one-way player who gives it all back on the defensive end. Also, Gallinari, like Collins, has no true defensive position and is best suited to play power forward.

Add it all up, and the most logical outcome is the Hawks will dangle Collins' youth and production on the trade market, hoping to land the kind of return that balances the team's roster. That deal wouldn't be possible if Atlanta had already backed up the Brinks trunk for Collins. - Casciaro

Bulls fail to extend Lauri Markkanen

It was always unlikely these two sides were going to reach a deal. Unless Markkanen was willing to agree to an extremely team-friendly contract, it made no sense for the Bulls to make a long-term commitment to a guy whose development has stalled out amid injuries and unclear role definition.

Three years in and it's still murky what Markkanen is. He had a promising rookie season and an encouraging second-half stretch as a sophomore, but he looked lost and disengaged last season. His best NBA skill is shooting threes as a 7-footer, but he's never been better than average from beyond the arc, and his size doesn't really play up in other areas. He's been ineffective in the post and a clear minus at the defensive end, where he struggles to chase power forwards and doesn't protect the rim well enough to be a full-time center.

That's not to say he can't improve to the point that a long-term marriage becomes palatable for Chicago. His pump-and-drive game still holds promise, and he's shown playmaking flashes that suggest he can be more than just a run-of-the-mill stretch four. It makes more sense for the Bulls to wait and see whether he can stay healthy and how he looks in Billy Donovan's system before committing to anything. - Wolfond