NBA weekend betting preview: Fade Spurs in rough spot
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Each week of the NBA season, we'll highlight some of the top betting angles and plays on the schedule. Here are some tips heading into this weekend's slate.
Note: Lines for Saturday and beyond are released later in the week.
Friday
Los Angeles Lakers (-5.5, 214) at Miami Heat
It's a tough sell to fade the Lakers in pretty much any spot, but the Heat deserve some love here as home 'dogs. Miami is 11-0 straight up and 9-2 against the spread at home, and it's 6-0 SU / 5-1 ATS this year when more well-rested than the opponent.
Los Angeles has been strong on the road and against good teams, though, so perhaps the safer play is the under. The Lakers boast a top-three defense and are 4-2 to the under when playing a team with at least a 0.70 win percentage, as Miami has. The Heat's defense has slipped lately but has enough elite talent to step up in arguably the team's biggest game of the young season.
New Orleans Pelicans at Philadelphia 76ers (-8.5, 222.5)
Location matters quite a bit with these two teams: The 76ers have won their 13 home games by an average of 12.6 points, while the Pelicans are a league-worst 2-10 SU on the road with losses averaging 11.5 points per contest.
New Orleans will catch Philadelphia on the second night of a back-to-back, but the Sixers are 3-0 SU / 2-1 ATS in that spot at home, including wins over three of the East's six best teams. New Orleans is nowhere close to that level. Don't get cute here.
Saturday
San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns
Friends don't let friends bet on the Spurs, at least not this year. San Antonio has been the century's best bet against the number but is a league-worst 6-18 ATS (25%) and second-worst 3-7 ATS on the road this season. The low point came in its last road game - a 34-point drubbing in Detroit.
This is also a brutal spot for San Antonio, coming off three straight home outings. Road teams coming off a three-game homestand this year are 10-26-1 ATS (27.8%). Somehow, that's better than the Spurs' regular ATS record. Fade them against the Suns.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets
The under has been hitting at a nearly profitable rate across the board this year, and few teams are hitting as well as these two. The Nuggets are the runaway best bets with a 17-5-1 record to the under (77.3%), while the Thunder are among the top five at 15-9 (62.5%).
Don't be scared away by a low total, either. Totals below 210 are 22-11 to the under this year, including 4-1 in games featuring one of these two teams.
Sunday
Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors
Remember when the Warriors over was the NBA's best bet? Their defense is still abhorrent, but their offense has been even worse as injuries wear away at the roster, leading to 11 unders in Golden State's last 15 games.
The Kings' 29th-ranked pace makes their raw defensive numbers look a bit better than they should, but Sacramento still boasts a 16-8 under record on the year with the league's 12th-best defensive rating since Nov. 27 (107.3). The under has value here, especially if oddsmakers continue to guard against the perception of juicy Warriors overs.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.