NBA MVP odds: Big bet on Embiid, value with Doncic and Zion
Now that the top big-name NBA free agents have found a home, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook released the odds for next season's Most Valuable Player award. Giannis Antetokounmpo opened as a 7-2 favorite to win his second consecutive MVP, followed by Steph Curry (4-1) and James Harden (9-2).
Anthony Davis, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George landing in Los Angeles made the Clippers and Lakers the two betting favorites to win the NBA title, but all three players come in a little further down the MVP odds board. Davis opened at 10-1, while the Clippers' dynamic duo of Leonard and George are each 12-1.
LeBron James and Russell Westbrook also opened at 12-1. The King has been named MVP four times in his career, most recently in 2013. 76ers center Joel Embiid has the next shortest odds at 16-1. Embiid opened at 25-1 but the SuperBook took a big bet on him Sunday night. That large wager now makes Embiid the SuperBook's biggest liability to win MVP, according to SuperBook race and sports manager Derek Wilkinson.
Rookie phenom Zion Williamson opened at 100-1 at the SuperBook but, after the first 48 hours, not much money was coming in on the former Duke star. Instead, a couple of other long shots are attracting early action. Besides Embiid and favorites like LeBron, Kawhi, and the Greek Freak, Wilkinson said the two players seeing the most bets to win MVP are Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (100-1) and Grizzlies rookie guard Ja Morant (1,000-1).
Here are the SuperBook's odds for the 2019-20 NBA MVP winner:
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 7-2 |
| Steph Curry | 4-1 |
| James Harden | 9-2 |
| Anthony Davis | 10-1 |
| Nikola Jokic | 10-1 |
| Russell Westbrook | 12-1 |
| LeBron James | 12-1 |
| Kawhi Leonard | 12-1 |
| Paul George | 12-1 |
| Joel Embiid | 16-1 |
| Damian Lillard | 25-1 |
| Ben Simmons | 50-1 |
| Kyrie Irving | 50-1 |
| Donovan Mitchell | 50-1 |
| Luka Doncic | 50-1 |
| Zion Williamson | 100-1 |
| Draymond Green | 100-1 |
| Kemba Walker | 100-1 |
| Karl-Anthony-Towns | 100-1 |
| Jimmy Butler | 100-1 |
| Devin Booker | 100-1 |
| Bradley Beal | 100-1 |
| Pascal Siakam | 100-1 |
| Blake Griffin | 100-1 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | 100-1 |
| Ja Morant | 1000-1 |
| RJ Barrett | 1000-1 |
My favorite bet to win NBA MVP this season is Luka Doncic at 50-1. Doncic won the Rookie of the Year award in June after averaging 21.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 6.0 assists for a Mavericks team that won just 33 games. Dallas is expected to be more competitive this season with a healthy Kristaps Porzingis and the additions of Seth Curry and Boban Marjanovic. The Mavericks should push for a playoff spot in the competitive Western Conference and their odds to win the NBA title are a respectable 50-1.
The Mavericks may not be serious title contenders just yet, but they're moving in the right direction. I expect Dallas to improve on last season's 33-49 record and make the playoffs. Doncic proved as a rookie that he's a special player and a better supporting cast will lead to more wins and national exposure.
Only two rookies have ever won the NBA MVP award (Wilt Chamberlain and Wes Unseld) and it hasn't happened since 1968, so Williamson is fighting an uphill battle. However, he's in an interesting situation because, like the Mavericks, the Pelicans are expected to compete for a playoff spot this season. Besides Williamson, New Orleans added Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, JJ Redick, and Derrick Favors to what should be one of the most exciting teams in the NBA.
It's noteworthy that no early money has come in on Zion to win MVP. That means sharp bettors don't see much value in his 100-1 odds. Almost all of the early bets on futures like NBA MVP are from experienced gamblers. Once we get closer to the start of the season, expect to see more public money on Zion to win MVP - and, as we saw with Embiid, it only takes one large wager to move the odds. My guess is that Zion closes at around 50-1 to win MVP, so if you like his chances, grab him now at 100-1.