NBA Western Conference betting preview: Predicting win totals for every team

The 2018-19 NBA season is right around the corner. To help you get ready for it, I'm predicting win totals for every team. Here are my Western Conference picks.

(All point totals are taken from Bookmaker.eu; be sure to shop around for the best numbers available.)

Dallas Mavericks

Pick: Over 34.5 wins (-136)

Let's start these shenanigans off by emphasizing just how loaded the West is.

OK, now that we've gotten that out of the way, the Mavericks are asked to win 11 more games than they did last season in a deep conference. Can it happen?

For starters, they should have been a 31-win team; that's a good start. Secondly, remove Mark Cuban's lose-first approach and there's hope on the horizon. Lastly, the Mavs didn't set the world on fire with offseason moves but adding DeAndre Jordan and Luka Doncic and potentially getting a huge improvement from Dennis Smith Jr. in his sophomore season could make Dallas somewhat competitive again.

Denver Nuggets

Pick: Over 47 wins (-111)

If I was to direct someone who was looking to become a fan of the NBA to one team, it'd be the Nuggets - a club that was one win away from making the playoffs last season with an influx of talented young players. There weren't many splashy moves made over the summer, but all the Nuggets are tasked with is banking on progression from those aforementioned young stars.

House money.

Golden State Warriors

Pick: Under 63 wins (-127)

Betting against the Warriors is not for the faint of heart. Imagine taking this under and tuning in to every single Dubs game, only to watch their 3-point shooters overcome every double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter. Rooting against Golden State with money on the line is nauseating.

The Warriors were a 58-win team a season ago, right on par with their expected win total. Is there enough there to get 63? Golden State could get 70 if it truly wanted, but in a more competitive conference this time around and the chance that head coach Steve Kerr preserves his players for the postseason, I'd take a look at the under.

Houston Rockets

Pick: Over 55.5 wins (-130)

Simply put, I actually love this over.

Does losing Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute and adding Carmelo Anthony equate to a 10-win drop-off from last season? I hardly think so. With a stable core intact and hopefully more than 58 games of Chris Paul during the regular season, I'd still bet on the Rockets to prove last year wasn't a fluke. And they have a 10-game cushion from a season ago!

Los Angeles Clippers

Pick: Under 37 wins (-104)

Collectively, the Clippers don't have a bad squad. Then again, I'd be shocked if they didn't wave the white towel midway through the year and start shipping off players to get the rebuild in full effect. Make Clipper basketball fun again.

Los Angeles Lakers

Pick: Under 47.5 wins (+122)

This is strictly a value play after lining up every single angle, which appear to be washes across the board.

LeBron James dragged an island of misfit of toys on his back to the NBA Finals and should be able to do much more with a young Lakers core packed with potential. But how much of James' plowing through the East was a result of the conference he was playing in? One would figure he can't just mosey his way through the West.

Betting against both the Warriors and LeBron in the same season? Yes, we're banking on the Western Conference teams to just beat each other senseless until it's comprised of 11 46-win squads.

Memphis Grizzlies

Pick: Under 33.5 wins (+103)

Getting Mike Conley back healthy is a season-defining scenario for the Grizzlies. And by season-defining, I mean the difference between winning 18 games and 33.

Someone has to lose. Under.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Pick: OFF

Minnesota's total has been taken off the board due to the status of Jimmy Butler, who is the subject of trade talks. Losing Butler might actually put the Timberwolves in a position where the market overreacts and the over becomes a good play, but that's out of our hands.

At the previous total of 44.5, I still would have taken the under. It feels as if Minnesota as a potential riser in the West has lost some serious steam.

New Orleans Pelicans

Pick: Under 45.5 wins (-117)

I don't think you can call the departure of DeMarcus Cousins all that detrimental to the Pelicans. Anthony Davis actually played better without Cousins after he went down for the season and the Pels still made a playoff bid. New Orleans was an overachiever by about three wins last season in a 48-34 year, and I expect the Pelicans to come back down even harder.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Pick: Over 48.5 (-110)

What should have been a 52-win team from a year ago sheds Carmelo and should probably be better for it. Should Oklahoma City stay healthy and get steady contributions from players like Andre Roberson, Steven Adams, and Dennis Schroder, the Thunder are my pick for the third seed in the West.

Phoenix Suns

Pick: Under 29.5 wins (-130)

The Suns are a point guard away from igniting what could be the most exciting rebuild in the NBA. That said, this team should have won 16 games last season based on its expected victory total. The Suns might be a League Pass darling this season with Devin Booker and DeAndre Ayton on the court, but I'll call for the big jump in the desert to happen next year.

Portland Trail Blazers

Pick: Over 42 wins (-112)

The cutthroat West - and perhaps the Trail Blazers being embarrassed in the playoffs - might have caused a slight overreaction to Portland's win total. It points to a steep decline, one that would result in seven or eight fewer wins than a season ago. Seeing as the Trail Blazers are essentially running it back with the same roster, I don't see a reason to completely fade them.

Sacramento Kings

Pick: Over 26.5 wins (-115)

There are so many question marks surrounding the Kings, given the different floors and ceilings of the younger players, some of whom have yet to see real action. But one team in the cellar has to outperform its expectations, so if I'm taking a flier on one of those teams, I'm putting my trust in ... (gulp) Vlade Divac and Dave Joerger.

San Antonio Spurs

Pick: Over 45.5 wins (-130)

I've bet against the Warriors and LeBron James, but I'm not betting against Gregg Popovich.

It's a miracle the Spurs netted 47 wins a season ago without Kawhi Leonard, in a year they should have actually hit the 50-win mark. Now with DeMar DeRozan in the fold and Pop's ability to make something out of nothing, the Spurs have plenty to work with in 2018-19.

Utah Jazz

Pick: Over 49.5 wins (-111)

If Donovan Mitchell avoids the sophomore slump, this feels like stealing.

Quin Snyder coached what should have been a 55-win (!) team a season ago. The Jazz are the outlier of sexy basketball in the West but this team is collectively so good. Toss in the potential for Rudy Gobert to play close to a full season healthy and the Jazz should get to 50, no problem.

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.