Who falls out of the NBA playoffs this season, and who replaces them?
Change is inevitable; just ask the Cleveland Cavaliers. For the second time in eight years, Cleveland's homegrown franchise player skipped town for warmer pastures. And while LeBron James didn't leave the Cavs quite as high and dry this time as he did in 2010, it'll be difficult for them to return to the postseason in 2018-19.
With that in mind, we look at which teams will fall out of the playoff picture this season, and which teams are primed to replace them.
Eastern Conference
Out: Cavaliers
In: Pistons
Westgate has the Cavs' over-under at 30.5 wins, squarely in lottery-pick territory. Kevin Love remains in Cleveland, but comparisons are already being drawn to his tenure with the Minnesota Timberwolves from 2008-14, when he routinely put up big numbers on subpar squads.
Three hours up the Lake Erie shoreline, the Detroit Pistons sit as the most plausible replacement for the Cavs in the East Conference's top eight, even if they come with serious question marks of their own. Detroit is helped, however, by the ineptitude of the rest of the East; the Charlotte Hornets don't inspire confidence in anyone, the New York Knicks figure to be without Kristaps Porzingis for an extended period, and the Chicago Bulls aren't ready yet.
The Pistons doubled down by hiring another veteran coach in Dwane Casey, and are banking on their big-man axis of Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond to get them back to the playoffs for the first time since 2016. They probably won't be better than seventh or eighth, but they'll make the dance.
Western Conference
Out: Trail Blazers, Timberwolves
In: Lakers, Nuggets
Let's not kid ourselves: The Los Angeles Lakers will make the playoffs because they have LeBron. Most odds have L.A. increasing their win total by 13-15 games thanks to his presence alone.
So who falls out of the Western Conference's top eight?
Arguably no team has overachieved over the past three years more than the Portland Trail Blazers. Many expected them to drop into the lottery after LaMarcus Aldridge bailed in 2015, but instead Rip City has averaged 45 wins a season since.
At some point, however, Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum will only be able to carry this team so far. The dearth of reliable wings will eventually catch up with Portland; this season the team has $35 million committed to a less-than-stellar triumvirate of Evan Turner, Meyers Leonard, and Maurice Harkless. Jimmy Butler would certainly help, but Portland would have to sacrifice a lot to swing a trade of that magnitude.
Speaking of Butler, the Timberwolves will be the other West squad left on the outside looking in. All signs point to the star wing being dealt before the season starts, effectively rendering Tom Thibodeau's neo-Bulls experiment a failure. If he's not traded, the word "dysfunctional" may not do the Wolves' locker room justice.
Karl-Anthony Towns remains the centerpiece of Minny's future, but Andrew Wiggins has squarely put the pressure on himself to step up now after he and his brother's ill-advised social media activities.
Can he become the superstar player the Timberwolves envisioned when they traded for Cleveland's No. 1 pick in 2014? That's debatable. Regardless of the return from a Butler deal, Wiggins will be leaned on heavily to get Minnesota - who qualified for the postseason last year for the first time since the 2003-04 campaign - back to the playoffs.
That leaves the Denver Nuggets, the team Minnesota edged out for the big dance during the final contest of last season. Denver's defense still figures to be a sieve with the addition of Isaiah Thomas, but they've got more than enough firepower to nab a bottom-two playoff spot.