UFC 317 predictions: Will Topuria find Oliveira's chin for a KO?
theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the UFC 317 main-card bouts ahead of Saturday's event in Las Vegas.
Lightweight championship
Ilia Topuria (16-0)
vs.
Charles Oliveira (35-10, 1 NC)
Former featherweight champion Ilia Topuria is one win away from his second coronation in his ninth UFC appearance. The odds heavily favor Topuria to beat Charles Oliveira and capture the vacant lightweight title, which would make him the 10th two-division champion in promotion history. But it wouldn't be smart to sleep on Oliveira's chances. "Do Bronx" is the much bigger fighter (three inches taller than Topuria with a five-inch reach advantage), and he's one of the top submission threats in the sport.
Still, Topuria's knockout power and hand speed make it tough to pick against him. And Oliveira is prone to getting knocked down. If that happens here, there'll likely be no coming back from it like he did against Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje. Expect Topuria to pressure Oliveira early, land hard punches in the pocket, and put the former lightweight champ away within two rounds.
The pick: Topuria, second-round knockout
Flyweight championship
Alexandre Pantoja (29-5)
vs.
Kai Kara-France (25-11, 1 NC)
Alexandre Pantoja has become one of the most consistent champions in the UFC, and he should have no problem securing his fourth straight title defense against Kai Kara-France. Though the American Top Team product has a well-rounded skill set, the ground game is his strong suit, and it'll come in handy against a devastating striker in Kara-France. Expect Pantoja to dodge Kara-France's attempts at a knockout early in the fight and then drag the challenger into deep waters en route to a submission or lopsided decision victory.
The pick: Pantoja, third-round submission
Lightweight bout
Beneil Dariush (22-6-1)
vs.
Renato Moicano (20-6-1)
Renato Moicano probably has a chip on his shoulder after coming up short in his last-minute title fight against Islam Makhachev in January. He was supposed to fight Beneil Dariush on that UFC 311 card, but got called up to take on the pound-for-pound king instead and lost all his momentum when Makhachev choked him out in just over four minutes, a result that seemed inevitable going in. Moicano is looking to bounce back in a big way, and he'll do just that. Dariush hasn't stepped into the Octagon since December 2023 and hasn't won since October 2022. Moicano is closer to the prime of his career than Dariush and will stay relevant with a convincing, well-rounded performance.
The pick: Moicano, unanimous decision
Flyweight bout
Brandon Royval (17-7)
vs.
Joshua Van (14-2)
This is a terrific matchup. Twenty-three-year-old Joshua Van is looking to vault into title contention with a win over the division's top dog (after Pantoja) in Brandon Royval. Van agreed to the matchup two weeks ago after Manel Kape withdrew due to an injury, and he even opened as the betting favorite. Van is a sharp puncher with the tools to win, but this might be too big of a step up in competition, especially on short notice. I'll take Royval to lean on his experience and edge out a narrow victory.
The pick: Royval, split decision
Bantamweight bout
Payton Talbott (9-1)
vs.
Felipe Lima (14-1)
The UFC isn't doing Payton Talbott any favors after his first career loss. Felipe Lima hasn't made much noise in the sport yet, but a 2-0 start in the Octagon - and a 14-1 record overall - is impressive. Lima is better on the ground and should be able to mix in some striking to get the win.
The pick: Lima, unanimous decision
