UFC 302 predictions: Will Poirier finally capture gold?

Ahead of Saturday's UFC 302 in Newark, theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the main-card bouts.

Lightweight championship

Islam Makhachev (25-1)
vs.
Dustin Poirier (30-8, 1 NC)

It would be quite the story if Dustin Poirier walked into Prudential Center on Saturday for his third shot at the undisputed lightweight title and walked out a champion.

In 13 years as a UFC fighter, Poirier has put together a Hall of Fame-worthy resume en route to becoming one of the 10 best lightweights ever. He won an interim belt in 2019 and has beaten several former champions, including Max Holloway (twice), Conor McGregor (twice), Justin Gaethje, Eddie Alvarez, and Anthony Pettis. But the one thing that's eluded Poirier is the undisputed title, the right to call himself undoubtedly the greatest 155-pound fighter on the planet.

Standing in the way of Poirier finishing his story is the Dagestani dominance of Islam Makhachev, and toppling him from the throne is a tall order for anyone - especially Poirier.

Makhachev was long considered the protege of his teammate and countryman Khabib Nurmagomedov, a UFC Hall of Famer widely considered the greatest lightweight ever. And almost exactly two years after Nurmagomedov retired as the undefeated champ, the inevitable occurred: Makhachev choked out Charles Oliveira to begin a new - and perhaps lengthy - era at 155 pounds.

Just like Nurmagomedov, takedowns, top control, and submissions are Makhachev's bread and butter. But his striking was on full display in his first two title defenses in 2023, as he outstruck Alexander Volkanovski in their first fight and knocked him out with a head kick in the rematch. Makhachev rounding out his game is a terrifying thought for the rest of the division.

Unfortunately for Poirier, Makhachev is an outright brutal stylistic matchup for him. Poirier needs to keep the fight on the feet to give himself a shot at winning, and he couldn't do that when he challenged Nurmagomedov in 2019. He also couldn't do it against Oliveira - another jiu-jitsu specialist - in 2021. Poirier is probably winning anytime Saturday's main event is playing out on the feet - he has great fundamentals, explosive power, and wicked killer instinct - but the aggressive Makhachev will still be in control because of the takedown threat.

Ultimately, I have a hard time believing Makhachev won't be able to push Poirier up against the fence and score takedowns whenever he wants. Barring a Hail Mary guillotine from Poirier that would undeniably turn the internet upside down, I also have a hard time believing Makhachev won't eventually take Poirier's back and find a submission - most likely a rear-naked choke - if he can consistently get his opponent on the mat. It won't be the storybook ending Poirier and many MMA fans are hoping for, but instead, the continuation of what's shaping up to be one of the most dominant runs we've ever seen in this sport.

The pick: Makhachev, second-round submission

Middleweight bout

Sean Strickland (28-6)
vs.
Paulo Costa (14-3)

Former UFC middleweight champion Sean Strickland is looking to get back on track after dropping the title to Dricus Du Plessis in January.

He takes on former title challenger Paulo Costa, who also has a lot to prove.

In what'll most likely be a stand-up affair for all 25 minutes (or however long it lasts), Strickland seems like the safe pick to me. He's more technically sound than Costa and is an intelligent boxer who outstruck Israel Adesanya of all people in his championship win last September. And if MMA math works whatsoever, Adesanya's dominant TKO win over Costa ought to raise some eyebrows.

Yet, for some reason, I keep getting swayed in Costa's direction. "The Eraser" had an admittedly impressive performance in defeat in his last Octagon outing, rocking former champ Robert Whittaker at UFC 298 in February before coming up just short on the scorecards. It was one of Costa's most mature showings and a good sign that he was trending toward finally being a consistent and reliable middleweight contender.

One of Costa's advantages will be power and overall impact. He's one of the hardest hitters in the 185-pound division, and Strickland's known to potshot his way to victory. I'm banking on Costa to land the significantly bigger shots and steal rounds if he can at least somewhat keep up to Strickland's pace over five frames - and that's a big if. This is very much a do-or-die fight for Costa and his title hopes, and I'm going out on a limb and saying he'll get his hand raised against the No. 1-ranked middleweight in the UFC.

The pick: Costa, unanimous decision

Other main-card predictions: Kevin Holland def. Michal Oleksiejczuk by TKO; Alex Morono def. Niko Price by decision; Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos def. Randy Brown by decision