UFC 282 predictions: Can Blachowicz defy the odds again vs. Ankalaev?

theScore's Jack Browne makes his picks for the top bouts ahead of Saturday's UFC 282 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Light heavyweight championship

Jan Blachowicz (29-9)
vs.
Magomed Ankalaev (18-1)

It's hard to put aside the disappointment of losing out on a rematch between Glover Teixeira and Jiri Prochazka, who vacated his title after suffering a serious shoulder injury. It's even harder to stomach how the UFC dismissed Teixeira's request for more preparation time before facing the monstrous Ankalaev after shutting down his preferred rematch with Blachowicz. Perhaps the UFC sees a future star in Ankalaev and doesn't want to pass up the chance at reinvigorating a division that mostly elder statesmen have headlined. But Teixeira-Blachowicz would've been - in my view - the more exciting, competitive, and sellable end-of-the-year headliner.

Counting Blachowicz out hasn't worked well in the past. He entered the 2019 fight against Luke Rockhold that kickstarted his run to championship glory as the underdog. He was considered so again when he faced Dominick Reyes for the interim title in 2020 - many viewed Reyes as the uncrowned king following his close loss to Jon Jones right up until Blachowicz unleashed his "legendary Polish power." Nearly everyone picked Israel Adesanya to become a two-division champion against Blachowicz in 2021. With Adesanya seemingly looking at him as a vulnerable champion, Blachowicz again defied the odds. All that being said, the veteran is facing a mammoth task Saturday.

After losing to Paul Craig via submission in his UFC debut in 2018, Ankalaev has won nine straight fights - four by unanimous decision and five by knockout. A few of his decision victories haven't exactly gotten butts off seats, especially his main-event snoozer against Thiago Santos in March, which was supposed to be his coming-out party. Make no mistake, though - it might not always be pretty with Ankalaev, but it's always highly effective. Not only can he match Blachowicz's power, but Ankalaev's game is also highly efficient. The Russian fighter is a controlled explosion, boasting crisp footwork and stand-up skills.

Ankalaev is, of course, also an outstanding grappler. He's adept at setting up his takedowns with his strikes, and when he gets to an opponent, he can often overwhelm them with his strength. Blachowicz's wrestling skills are solid, if limited, so he should provide resistance early if Ankalaev looks to grapple. However, his gas tank should quickly begin to drain, limiting the threat of his big punches. It wouldn't be surprising to see Ankalaev grind out another decision win here since Blachowicz is a difficult man to put away for good. But after laying down three rounds of punishment, the 30-year-old should be able to claim his first UFC title with some brutal ground and pound.

The pick: Magomed Ankalaev via 4th-round TKO

Lightweight bout

Paddy Pimblett (19-3)
vs.
Jared Gordon (19-5)

While the bouts lost from this card diminish the UFC's attempt to end the year with a bang, the promotion will likely be happy with the chance to fuel Pimblett's momentum. The rising English star - who's 3-0 since joining the UFC, with all three wins via finish and two coming in the first round - might even be the event's biggest attraction. At the time of writing, his segment of "UFC Countdown" has drawn 566,000 views on YouTube compared to 160,000 for the main event.

The former Cage Warriors champion enjoys sparking chaos early and fighting with an almost reckless abandon. Nine of his 19 wins have come via submission, and with those slick grappling skills to always fall back on, the risk-heavy approach has worked well for him - so far. In mixed martial arts, you can only play with fire for so long until you get burned. It almost happened early in the first round of his debut when Luigi Vendramini cracked him with a huge left hand, taking advantage of Pimblett's tendency to leave his chin up in the air. Pimblett blitzed his way to victory several minutes later, but the vulnerability was put on display. His dramatic weight fluctuations could also start catching up to him sooner than later.

Is Gordon the man to make Pimblett pay, though? He's won four of his last five, and all four have come via decision - that's a pattern for the American fighter, who has 11 decision wins out of his 19 total career victories. He's not a dynamic finisher, which is what you assume will eventually get Pimblett into trouble. However, Gordon is supremely tough, well-versed in defending submission attempts (his first submission loss was to Grant Dawson in April), and smart in scrambles on the ground. He almost certainly won't be as easy to put away early as Pimblett's other three UFC opponents.

Pimblett does boast a big range advantage that could help him dictate the fight if he's patient enough to use it. But if he looks for another spectacular win, bouncing forward into Gordon's range with his chin exposed and allowing his opponent to start point-fighting, it could be a much longer day in the office. I feel Pimblett is due for a stumble, albeit one that actually might propel him to further heights as he's forced to refine his game for the upper echelons of the UFC.

The pick: Jared Gordon via unanimous decision

Featherweight bout

Bryce Mitchell (15-0)
vs.
Ilia Topuria (12-0)

Usually, I look at the final three fights of a pay-per-view. But I'm making an exception for Mitchell versus Topuria - a highly intriguing main-card opener between two undefeated fighters that boasts far higher stakes than Santiago Ponzinibbio against Alex Morono, who replaced an injured Robbie Lawler on short notice. Mitchell comes in ranked at No. 9, and Topuria is No. 14. With the featherweight division scrambling to get itself in order while champion Alexander Volkanovski tries for gold at 155, the winner of this fight becomes a serious player at featherweight.

The lower-ranked Topuria enters as the slight favorite after racking up three knockouts, two of which came in the first round, since winning his UFC debut via unanimous decision in 2020. He absolutely hits hard (you could hear every strike in an empty UFC Apex versus Damon Jackson), but his precision and ability to mix up his punches are what stand out. Topuria smartly worked Jackson's body, opening the chance to land the knockout blow. He further showcased his viciousness and power in his wins over Ryan Hall and Jai Herbert.

Meanwhile, Mitchell is riding a six-fight win streak. Aside from one wild twister submission, he has earned decision wins by grinding out his opponents using his suffocating grappling. Mitchell still needs refinement in his takedowns, but he makes up for it with persistence. Once he's got you, there are few better at dominating their foes on the mat in the featherweight division. He also showed his improved striking against Edson Barboza in March, often getting the better of a veteran who's lauded for his stand-up- skills.

Despite the developments, Mitchell would be wise to try not to stand and bang with Topuria for too long, and he'll likely shoot early and often. But Topuria has seven submission wins on his resume and will jump on any chance Mitchell creates with sloppy takedown attempts. Throw in his power advantage, and I see another highlight reel finish for "El Matador."

The pick: Ilia Topuria via 2nd-round TKO