UFC 276 best bets: Is there any value on Adesanya?
Saturday's UFC 276 features a middleweight title fight between champion Israel Adesanya and Jared Cannonier.
Also on the card, featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski will defend his belt in a trilogy bout with Max Holloway.
Before the action gets underway at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, here are the two best bets for the event.
Israel Adesanya (-525) / Andre Muniz by finish (-180)
$100 parlay to net $85.19
Adesanya should have minimal difficulty adding another jewel - indicating a title defense - to his championship belt.
Cannonier has serious knockout power - he's one of the hardest hitters in the division - but he brings nothing to the table that Adesanya hasn't seen. Other than catching Adesanya with the perfect shot, a path to victory for Cannonier just doesn't seem to be there.
"The Last Stylebender" will pose problems for Cannonier on the feet with his length, counterpunches, and leg kicks. If Adesanya can dictate the range and pace of the fight early on, then Cannonier will struggle to get his offense going.
Adesanya also stands to be the stronger fighter in the later rounds, as he has quite a bit of experience in 25-minute championship bouts at this point. Cannonier has gone past 15 minutes just once.
Admittedly, -500 is a hefty price for Adesanya, but he's still a great fighter to lead your parlay.
The other side of the parlay sees Andre Muniz take on Uriah Hall in an undercard middleweight matchup.
Muniz is regarded as one of the division's top up-and-comers. The Brazilian holds a 4-0 UFC record and, most notably, became the first to submit grappling ace Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza in 2021. Meanwhile, Hall has experienced mixed results in the past few years, struggling to break through as a contender.
Understandably, Muniz is a big favorite at -360. But if you take him to win inside the distance, the price gets a lot more attractive at -180.
It's often better to play it safe and only bet fighters straight up, because MMA is a wild sport. But in this case, I feel quite confident Muniz gets the job done within 15 minutes. His last three UFC wins all ended by submission, with only his 2019 debut going the distance. On the regional circuit, a significant number of his wins also were stoppages.
Muniz is getting better each fight, and if he can beat Souza the way he did, I have no reason to believe he can't get Hall - who's struggled on the ground in past fights - out of there.
Lawler-Barberena goes the distance (-167)
Former UFC welterweight champion Robbie Lawler taking on Bryan Barberena may not be the fight everyone is talking about, but there's a good chance they'll steal the show.
Lawler has several all-time classics to his name, and Barberena is one of the scrappiest fighters in the division. The chances of this matchup being a three-round slugfest are quite high.
The likelihood of it going the distance is also high. Both fighters are known for their durable chins, with Lawler last getting knocked out in 2016 (against Tyron Woodley in his final title fight) and Barberena in 2019. Additionally, both fighters' wins over the years have come by decision more often than not.
So at -167, I'll take a stab at the decision prop in a fight bound to be competitive.
- Israel Adesanya (-525) vs. Jared Cannonier (+375)
- Alexander Volkanovski (-220) vs. Max Holloway (+175)
- Sean Strickland (-130) vs. Alex Pereira (+100)
- Robbie Lawler (-125) vs. Bryan Barberena (-105)
- Sean O'Malley (-320 vs. Pedro Munhoz (+250)
- Jalin Turner (-150) vs. Brad Riddell (+120)
- Ian Garry (-200) vs. Gabriel Green (+160)
- Jim Miller (-200) vs. Donald Cerrone (+165)
- Dricus Du Plessis (-160) vs. Brad Tavares (+130)
Early preliminary card
- Andre Muniz (-360) vs. Uriah Hall (+280)
- Maycee Barber (-320) vs. Jessica Eye (+250)
- Jessica-Rose Clark (-165) vs. Julija Stoliarenko (+135)