UFC 265 predictions: How will Gane deal with Lewis' power?
Ahead of Saturday's UFC 265 in Houston, theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the top bouts.
Interim heavyweight championship
Derrick Lewis (25-7, 1 NC)
vs.
Ciryl Gane (9-0)
The No. 2- and No. 3-ranked heavyweights are set to vie for interim gold in this weekend's main event, with the winner going on to face undisputed champion Francis Ngannou.
On paper, the heavily favored Gane is much more skilled than Lewis. "Bon Gamin" is one of the division's most technical strikers and is light on his feet, unlike most heavyweights. He also has decent power to back up his fluid stand-up game.
Gane has been perfect through six UFC appearances, shining especially bright in a clear-cut win over Alexander Volkov and a TKO stoppage of former champ Junior dos Santos.
Lewis, on the other hand, has a style that's hard to describe. His punches can be a game-changer, but his inactivity can be his downfall. He is one of the hardest hitters in UFC history and is currently tied for the most knockouts ever scored in the promotion. And occasionally, he'll connect with a well-set-up head kick that no man his size should be able to land.
"The Black Beast" is a one-of-a-kind fighter in the way he can turn around a losing effort in an instant. Remember the Volkov fight? Lewis didn't do much for 14-and-a-half minutes but then knocked Volkov out with about 10 seconds to go. Curtis Blaydes was doing well against Lewis in February until an uppercut from hell put him down for good.
We've seen this time and time again. So, Gane has to be perfect to beat Lewis. One mistake and Lewis can shut his lights out. And he has 25 minutes to land a big shot.
That said, I'm leaning toward Gane simply because it's impossible to ignore his overall MMA skill set and massive technique advantage.
The pick: Gane, unanimous decision
Bantamweight bout
Jose Aldo (29-7)
vs.
Pedro Munhoz (19-5, 1 NC)
This has the potential to be the most competitive of the three fights we're breaking down.
It's all but a guarantee that Aldo and Munhoz will engage in a striking battle in Saturday's co-main event, and who will have the edge is a tough question.
Aldo, a former featherweight champion who's been at bantamweight for his past three bouts, showed last time out against Marlon Vera that he's still a top fighter. There were some questions going in about whether the 34-year-old was too far past his prime to contend, but it appears that isn't the case.
The ex-champ brought back his iconic leg kicks against Vera in December. Those, in addition to his devastating body punches, will be key in slowing Munhoz down.
Munhoz likes to come forward and trade heavy punches, often using his pressure to overwhelm his opponents. He's also one of the division's tougher fighters, so Aldo will have a tough time getting him out of there. However, expect Aldo to be the slightly sharper striker over three very competitive rounds.
The pick: Aldo, unanimous decision
Welterweight bout
Michael Chiesa (17-4)
vs.
Vicente Luque (20-7-1)
Another important clash on the UFC 265 main card pits Chiesa against Luque at 170 pounds, and whoever emerges victorious will be considered a title contender.
This fight comes down to Luque having more ways to win.
On the feet, the Brazilian will have a significant advantage. His power is devastating and he's a much more natural striker than Chiesa.
On the ground is where the bout could get interesting. Chiesa is a talented wrestler who has the ability to hold down his opponents for 25 minutes if he executes his game plan properly. Luque, though, is an underrated submission artist and could catch Chiesa in a choke if "Maverick" isn't careful.
In the end, Luque's advantage in the striking department is bigger than Chiesa's advantage on the mat. So I'm going with "The Silent Assassin" to hand Chiesa the first true TKO loss of his professional career.
The pick: Luque, second-round TKO
