UFC 207 predictions: Will Nunes put Rousey down for good?
Prior to UFC 207 on Friday in Las Vegas, theScore's Themistoklis Alexis and Alexander K. Lee give their predictions on the evening's main-card bouts.
Women's Bantamweight Championship Bout
Amanda Nunes (6-1 UFC, 13-4)
vs.
Ronda Rousey (6-1 UFC, 12-1)
Alexander K. Lee: Ronda Rousey is about to remind everyone why she became so famous in the first place.
Before the media shutdown, before Saturday Night Live, before Holly Holm, before the movies, before Ellen, Rousey was the best female fighter in the world. Her Olympic-level judo skills combined with her steely determination and top shelf athleticism put her in a different class than the other women at 135 pounds. When she fell to Holm last November, she fell hard, but this is Rousey's chance to show that she can grow from her losses in the same vein as MMA's greatest champions.
She could have picked a much easier test than champion Amanda Nunes, a woman just as likely to choke you unconscious as she is to pound you into a fine dust. But Rousey wouldn't have it any other way and it's that temerity that will make her the first two-time women's bantamweight champion.
THE PICK: Rousey
Related - Never gone: Why Ronda Rousey will become champion again at UFC 207
Themistoklis Alexis: Months prior to Friday's fight, Rousey revealed it would be one of her last, and Nunes is just the fighter to expedite her retirement plans.
Holm exposed Rousey as a mediocre striker at UFC 193, and as dedicated as she might be to regaining the women's bantamweight title, no amount of Edmond Tarverdyan-prescribed pad work will bring "Rowdy" to the level of a deadly Muay Thai artist in Nunes. Rousey will likely angle for a takedown before long, but if the champ controls the striking range, she'll be lighting the challenger up on the feet and conjuring flashbacks of the Holm fight in no time.
Neither fighter has gone five rounds, so expect Nunes to continue the trend and retain the strap with nothing less than an early knockout.
THE PICK: Nunes
Related - The Lioness' den: Why Amanda Nunes will spoil Rousey's return at UFC 207
Bantamweight Championship Bout
Dominick Cruz (5-0 UFC, 22-1)
vs.
Cody Garbrandt (5-0 UFC, 10-0)
Alexis: Cody Garbrandt will be entering the Octagon an already defeated man.
If the psychological havoc Dominick Cruz has wreaked on him for the last few months wasn't enough, the champ's style is the ideal foil to Garbrandt's. A knockout artist who always stands a puncher's chance, "No Love" will be playing right into Cruz's hand with his constant pursuit of a finish, as "The Dominator" has made a career of fooling aggressive opponents with his herky-jerky movement and unconventional striking angles.
Expect the reigning bantamweight king to score points with counters and have Garbrandt hitting nothing but air through 25 minutes to prolong his second reign with a sweep of the scorecards.
THE PICK: Cruz
Lee: Talented as Garbrandt is, it's difficult to imagine him being ready for a test of this magnitude at this stage of his career. Cruz has dealt with more skilled and experienced opponents than Garbrandt and rarely have any of them been able to land a significant blow against him.
The harder Garbrandt tries to knock Cruz out, the worse the fight will go for him. Cruz is simply a master of distance and timing and it won't take him long to solve Garbrandt. That's going to make a frustrating five rounds for Garbrandt who will leave the Octagon empty handed in his first shot at UFC gold.
THE PICK: Cruz
Bantamweight Bout
TJ Dillashaw (9-3 UFC, 13-3)
vs.
John Lineker (10-2 UFC, 29-7)
Lee: This will be an important test for John Lineker, who aspires to be the bantamweight champion. In TJ Dillashaw, he gets an opponent who has often been compared to Dominick Cruz.
Dillashaw brings an aggressiveness and emphasis on forward movement that Cruz sometimes lacks, which could play perfectly into Lineker's hands as the Brazilian will be at a distinct reach disadvantage. It's essential that Dillashaw not allow Lineker to walk him down while at the same time not pressing the action too much.
Many of Lineker's opponents have found that to be an impossible balancing act. Fortunately for Dillashaw, he's at the peak of his powers and his maturity combined with his outstanding striking have him poised to take a close decision win.
THE PICK: Dillashaw
Alexis: Whether the pair of bantamweights go the distance or not, "Hands of Stone" will exit the Octagon as Dominick Cruz's next challenger.
Lineker will do what's gotten him to the brink of title contention: walk Dillashaw down and get to swinging until his haymakers hit pay dirt, even if he has to eat a zinger or two in the process. The 30-year-old Dillashaw has been clamoring for another shot at Cruz, so he should oblige Lineker on the feet in an effort to make his case airtight, but the tactic will backfire before long.
The Brazilian most recently went five rounds with John Dodson - the only man to finish Dillashaw - and took everything he had, which spells nothing but doom for the former champ, even if his chin does right by him.
THE PICK: Lineker
Welterweight Bout
Alexis: Dong Hyun Kim has surprised his opponents with his dormant knockout power on more than one occasion, but his reckless gamesmanship won't fly against a more technically proficient and methodical Tarec Saffiedine.
The Belgian standup artist owns a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but he won't need them against "Stun Gun," as he'll wisely opt to control the striking range and stifle the judoka's attempts to put him on his back. Look for Saffiedine to work from the outside and frustrate Kim with his patented leg kicks to sway all three judges.
THE PICK: Saffiedine
Dong Hyun Kim (12-3 UFC, 21-3)
vs.
Tarec Saffiedine (2-2 UFC, 16-5)
Lee: Kim's newfound aggression has been the source of much success, but it could be his downfall against a skilled striker like Saffiedine.
"The Sponge" is regarded as one of the welterweight division's most cool and collected strikers, which means he's unlikely to fall into a brawl. That puts the pressure on him to fend off Kim's dangerous array of trips and takedowns. Should Saffiedine manage to stay upright and keep this a standup battle, he'll take this bout on points.
THE PICK: Saffiedine
Flyweight Bout
Louis Smolka (5-2 UFC, 11-2)
vs.
Ray Borg (3-2 UFC, 9-2)
Lee: This is Louis Smolka's chance to get back on track for a future flyweight title shot.
The 25-year-old Hawaiian is blessed with fierce finishing ability, a rarity in the 125-pound division. He'd won three of four fights by knockout or submission before suffering a massive upset at the hands of Brandon Moreno in his last outing. Expect him to deliver a bounce-back performance against the solid, but unspectacular Ray Borg, and record another win inside the distance.
THE PICK: Smolka
Alexis: It's not a matter of when, but how Smolka will get back in the win column.
Borg is a tough out for any flyweight, but "Da Last Samurai" has too many ways to win, be it by dismantling "The Tazmexican Devil" on the feet or tapping him on the ground. Before suffering on of the year's biggest upsets against the little-known Moreno, Smolka had torn through the division's middle tier with a four-fight win streak. Expect him to get back to his old habits on fight night.
THE PICK: Smolka
Fight | Alexis | Lee |
---|---|---|
Nunes vs. Rousey | Nunes | Rousey |
Cruz vs. Garbrandt | Cruz | Cruz |
Dillashaw vs. Lineker | Lineker | Dillashaw |
Kim vs. Saffiedine | Saffiedine | Saffiedine |
Smolka vs. Borg | Smolka | Smolka |
Hendricks vs. Magny | Hendricks | Magny |
Carlos Junior vs. Vettori | Vettori | Vettori |
Pyle vs. Garcia | Garcia | Garcia |
Thatch vs. Price | Price | Price |
Means vs. Oliveira | Means | Means |
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