UFC Zagreb predictions: Will Rothwell or Dos Santos earn a title shot?
Prior to every UFC event, theScore's Alexander K. Lee gives you his predictions for all the main-card fights.
Heavyweight Bout
Ben Rothwell (6-3 UFC, 36-9)
vs.
Junior dos Santos (11-3 UFC, 17-4)
The UFC Fight Night 86 main event will be determined by who can control the pace of the action. Ben Rothwell relies on being able to bully his opponents, so Junior dos Santos must manage distance and draw him into a boxing match.
Rothwell usually weighs in at the heavyweight limit, and that size advantage presents all kinds of problems for foes who end up grappling with him. He's incredibly durable, with only one stoppage loss in the UFC. That means he'll accept getting clobbered if it allows him to get in close where he can do some serious damage.
Considering the power Dos Santos packs in his punches, an aggressive approach could be disastrous for Rothwell. At the same time, if he waits around for Dos Santos to make a move he'll get picked apart for the better part of their five-round contest. As potent a finisher as Rothwell has been in his past few fights, look for Dos Santos to put on a vintage performance and win on points.
Pick: Dos Santos
Heavyweight Bout
Gabriel Gonzaga (12-9 UFC, 17-10)
vs.
Derrick Lewis (5-2 UFC, 14-4)
It's rare for Gabriel Gonzaga to meet a heavyweight as physically intimidating as himself, but that's exactly what he'll be facing Sunday when he meets Derrick "The Black Beast" Lewis.
The question is which mammoth martial artist will end up adding to their impressive finishing tallies? While Gonzaga has the experience advantage, one can't count out the ferocity and effectiveness of the single-minded Lewis. In every fight in which Lewis has managed to score a takedown, a ground-and-pound KO was soon to follow. Gonzaga has never been afraid to fight off of his back, though against Lewis he should be. If Lewis gets top position, expect old-fashioned American face-punching to overcome Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Pick: Lewis
Heavyweight Bout
Francis Ngannou (1-0 UFC, 6-1)
vs.
Curtis Blaydes (0-0 UFC, 5-0)
This is a classic grappler-versus-striker matchup that heavily favors the debuting Curtis Blaydes. As good as Francis Ngannou looked knocking out Luis Henrique last December, it will be a whole different story when he has to deal with Blaydes trying to throw him on his head.
The 25-year-old Blaydes is still a work in progress after just a few years of MMA competition, but he projects as an explosive heavyweight wrestler with legitimate power. Unless Blaydes suddenly decides he wants to show he's the second coming of Mirko Cro Cop, he should cruise to his first UFC win.
Pick: Blaydes
Heavyweight Bout
Timothy Johnson (1-1 UFC, 9-2)
vs.
Marcin Tybura (0-0 UFC, 13-1)
It's hard to look at Timothy Johnson as anything other than a sacrificial lamb for the debuting Marcin Tybura. So we won't.
Though both fighters are dependent on takedowns to get their offense going, it's the more inventive Tybura who will have the advantage in the clinch. There's a strong possibility the fight will devolve into a dreadful grappling stalemate, which could muck things up on the scorecards, but Tybura should be able to get enough dominant positions to sway the fight and maybe even finish late.
Pick: Tybura
Light Heavyweight Bout
Igor Pokrajac (4-7 UFC, 28-12)
vs.
Jan Blachowicz (1-2 UFC, 18-5)
The comforts of home will be a huge advantage for Zagreb’s own Igor Pokrajac, who will return to the Octagon for the first time since December 2014. Looking to give Pokrajac an unfriendly welcome back will be Jan Blachowicz, a top European light heavyweight who has been somewhat of a disappointment in the UFC.
Pokrajac's best years are behind him, so he'll have to assert himself early lest he fall prey to the fierce top game of Blachowicz. Even then, the energy from the Croatian crowd will help Pokrajac survive and push himself to one more memorable performance.
Pick: Pokrajac
Strawweight Bout
Maryna Moroz (1-1 UFC, 6-1)
vs.
Cristina Stanciu (0-0 UFC, 5-0)
An ideal fight candidate to kick off the card, Maryna Moroz and Cristina Stanciu are two fighters who look to finish at all times. Both women have highly vaunted striking backgrounds - Moroz in boxing and Stanciu in wushu - but the majority of their wins have come via submission.
Whether it's due to a knockdown or a takedown, the action will eventually hit the mat, and that's when the real fight begins. Expect to see fierce ground-and-pound and plenty of armbar attempts, regardless of whether it's Moroz or Stanciu in top position. Moroz's big-show experience should win out here in a fight that will be closer than the rankings would suggest.
Pick: Moroz