The Toronto Blue Jays are hoping two blockbuster trades in one week will have them partying like it's 1993.
Thursday's stunning deal to acquire former Cy Young winner David Price for three minor-league pitchers puts Toronto firmly in the hunt for a playoff spot and raises several intriguing questions, including whether the Blue Jays gave up too much in prospect capital for a two-month rental.
The acquisition of Price followed Monday's six-player deal with the Colorado Rockies that landed the Blue Jays All-Star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, elevating Toronto's status in what's become a wide-open wild-card race in the American League.
But is adding two superstars in three days enough for the Blue Jays to return to the World Series for the first time since their second of back-to-back championships in 1993? One could easily argue yes.
Blue Jays finally get their ace
Before landing Price, here's what the Blue Jays' potential playoff rotation looked like: Mark Buehrle, Drew Hutchison, R.A. Dickey, and Marco Estrada. Emphasis on potential and playoff.
With every loss, and they seemed to be happening at an every-second-game pace, the Blue Jays looked like they would need a miracle to crack the postseason. But two new superstars and 72 hours later, a 51-51 record never looked so good.
Estimated Playoff Odds
| Trade | DIV | WC | POFF | WC | ALDS | ALCS | WS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Without Price | 7.5 | 26.1 | 33.6 | 12.9 | 10 | 4.9 | 2.4 |
| With Price | 12.2 | 32.8 | 45 | 17.3 | 15.6 | 8.6 | 4.5 |
(Courtesy: FanGraphs)
Just because the Blue Jays landed an ace - and make no mistake Price is a top-flight No. 1 - it doesn't disguise the fact that their second-best pitcher is a soft-tossing 36-year-old lefty who performed terribly in the second half last year, while the next-best arm is either a right-hander with a 6.30 second-half ERA (Hutchison) or Dickey, an inconsistent 40-year-old knuckleballer.
But Price will surely help over the next nine weeks, especially for a team with a 10-22 record in one-run contests. The Blue Jays now have a No. 1 arm to pitch in a deciding one-game playoff or twice in a potential division series, and the impact of that can't be overstated.
Run differential is a real thing
Here's why it might not even matter that Toronto's rotation still lacks behind Price: the Jays have the second-best expected record (based on run differential) in the majors at a staggering 20 games above .500. And that damage was mostly done before the Blue Jays landed the game's best offensive shortstop in Tulowitzki. The old adage that pitching wins games doesn't carry as much weight when you've scored 100 more runs than you've given up.
Toronto's offense is extremely right-handed heavy, but the lineup possesses enough elite bats with strong same-sided splits that it doesn't matter which side of the plate they hit from.
| Player | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Tulowitzki | .305 | .351 | .488 | 114 |
| Josh Donaldson | .288 | .351 | .533 | 142 |
| Jose Bautista | .233 | .367 | .491 | 136 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | .238 | .335 | .452 | 116 |
| Russell Martin | .262 | .343 | .478 | 126 |
| MLB AVG | .253 | .314 | .397 | 96 |
According to Dave Cameron at FanGraphs, Toronto's rotation depth chart ranked 27th out of 30 teams. Post-Price trade? Sixteenth. Price gives the Blue Jays a so-called "stopper," capable of helping spell the offense when it inevitably goes cold, while stabilizing a staff that's pitched at least seven innings in just 32 percent of its starts.
AL is wide open
If the Kansas City Royals can make the World Series after crawling into the playoffs as a wild-card team, why can't Toronto?
The Blue Jays play the East-leading New York Yankees 13 more times this season, more than enough games to make up the seven they trail by in the standings. If Toronto's hard-luck record in one-run games begins to swing back in its favor, that gap suddenly doesn't look so imposing.
What does look scary, though, is a Blue Jays lineup with a trio of MVP-type bats in the middle of its order and a bona fide starter now in place to pick the club up when it doesn't hang 10 runs on the opposition.
The top contenders in the AL all have their warts, with the Yankees and Royals both missing a stalwart No. 2 pitcher that would cement their status as a consensus favorite. The Astros are young, the Los Angeles Angels have holes, the Twins have an underwhelming roster, and the Baltimore Orioles are missing in action.
The Blue Jays? They have their warts, too. But after one of the most improbable 72 hours in franchise history, they have two less warts than they did last week. In the wide-open AL, that might just be enough.