Jays don't need Big Dumper, but another big thumper wouldn't hurt

A fan of the Toronto Blue Jays who doesn't watch much in the way of non-Jays baseball likely had a particular reaction when tuning into this week's MLB All-Star Game.

That reaction being: hot damn, these guys are putting up some numbers.

Seattle Mariners' Cal Raleigh has launched 38 home runs. Aaron Judge is carrying an absurd 1.194 OPS for the New York Yankees. Even someone like Detroit Tigers' Riley Greene is producing a gaudy .544 slugging percentage with 24 home runs.

Despite a strong 55-win first half fueled by a six-week hot streak that propelled them to the top of the AL East, the Jays don't have anyone with those kinds of eye-popping numbers. They barely have anyone with eyebrow-raising statistics.

They have a bunch of guys with good numbers. Quite good, even. But it raises a question: can the Jays get through a pennant race without a major power threat in the heart of the lineup? Or will a balanced, deep roster be enough to see them into the postseason?

Toronto's offense, especially from mid-May onward, was nothing like the pop-gun variety of recent seasons.

But the club has spread the power out. The Jays' slugging percentage leader, George Springer, ranks 14th in the American League at .490. (Addison Barger is slightly ahead of him but doesn't have enough plate appearances to qualify for the leaderboard.) Springer is also 10th in the AL in OPS and 21st in home runs, both tops on the team.

The expected leader in all those categories, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., had something of a mystifying first half. He's 40th in the AL in slugging percentage and 46th in home runs, with just 12, tied with teammate Bo Bichette. Guerrero's most impressive statistic is on-base percentage, where he ranks sixth in the AL, at .384. That is, obviously, good, but the Jays didn't sign him to a monster contract extension so he could have the profile of a leadoff hitter, minus the speed.

The same kind of good-not-great thing is also true of Toronto's pitching staff. None of its starters rank among the top 15 pitchers in the American League for ERA, WHIP, or strikeouts. But Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, and Kevin Gausman are all bunched together just outside that range. Berrios is 18th in ERA and WHIP and 19th in strikeouts. Bassitt is 16th in strikeouts, 21st in ERA, and 28th in WHIP. Gausman is 13th in WHIP, tied with Bassitt for 16th in strikeouts, and 23rd in ERA.

It leads to an age-old debate: would you rather have one dominant starter or three of them who are a decent bet to deliver a solid outing?

The tricky part for the Blue Jays, and their front office as they figure out how aggressive to be at the trade deadline, is that their balanced approach might be better for the regular season's remaining two-plus months, but worse in the playoffs, should they advance. Having three veteran starters who tend to pitch well more often than not should keep the team competitive on most nights, especially on the long stretches between off days. However, in a playoff series, when there's more opportunity for rest, it can be hugely valuable to have a pitcher who can be lights-out in, say, Game 1 and Game 4. Would the Jays be confident that Berrios could be that guy if he were going up against someone like Boston's Garrett Crochet, the AL leader in ERA and strikeouts?

Berrios was, of course, spectacular in his last playoff start until he was yanked early - sorry to pick at a scab, Jays fans - so there's evidence he could be that big-game pitcher. As could any of Bassitt, Gausman, or even Max Scherzer, if his body lets him. Still, Toronto has no clear ace. It's worrisome.

While we're here, closer Jeff Hoffman is among the AL leaders in saves but sports an unsightly ERA over 5.00. Also worrisome.

On the offensive side, the everybody-eats strategy carries less risk. Even without a big thumper, the Jays have been scoring plenty of runs in recent months because the contributions have been coming from throughout the lineup. And when guys like Daulton Varsho and Anthony Santander return, that should bring extra pop. (Assuming that the Santander who returns is an improvement on the one who had a tepid start to his Toronto career.)

It's also true that having one huge bat that produces a ton of offense creates a significant problem when that single bat goes quiet. Judge hit 58 home runs for the Yankees in the 2024 regular season, then just three over a 14-game playoff run in which he hit .184. If the Jays, on the other hand, go a week without a home run from Guerrero, that's nothing they haven't seen before.

But a hot streak of the kind they haven't seen since about 2021 wouldn't be remiss, either.

Any time now, Vladdy.

Scott Stinson is a contributing writer for theScore.