What every MLB contender needs to do before trade deadline
With only a week to go before the July 31 MLB trade deadline, we take a look at what moves each contender needs to make ahead of the stretch run. Contenders are defined as teams with at least a 30% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs projections.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Record: 59-43
Playoff odds: 99%
Biggest needs: Left field, bench depth, pitching
The one hole in the Dodgers' lineup is in left field, where Michael Conforto has struggled. While they could potentially fix this issue internally by giving Hyeseong Kim more playing time in center and moving Andy Pages to left, that won't solve all of their problems. L.A. would be wise to try to find another corner outfielder, preferably one who hits from the left side, and then use its financial muscle to eat the rest of Conforto's contract. There's also the usual need for pitching, especially at the back of the bullpen given Tanner Scott's recent injury. Adding rotation depth is a possibility, but it's not a necessity with Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki progressing toward returns.
Potential targets: Mike Tauchman, Bryan Reynolds, Cedric Mullins, Jarren Duran, Taylor Ward, Kenley Jansen, Mason Miller, David Bednar, Félix Bautista, Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, Ryan Helsley
Detroit Tigers
Record: 60-42
Playoff odds: 98%
Biggest needs: Bullpen, depth starting pitching
It's been a stellar year for the Tigers, who are flying toward an AL Central title and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. To fortify their chances in October, though, they sorely need some relief help. Detroit's bullpen ranks bottom 10 in ERA (4.06) and K/9 (an AL-worst 7.7) and has allowed 45 home runs. Will Vest is the team's only regular reliever with an ERA below three, while free-agent signing Tommy Kahnle has struggled. It wouldn't hurt to add some back-end starting depth as insurance should Jack Flaherty's struggles continue, either.
Potential targets: David Bednar, Dennis Santana, Félix Bautista, Emmanuel Clase, Ryan Helsley, Kenley Jansen, Mason Miller, Raisel Iglesias, Kyle Finnegan, Nick Martinez, Emilio Pagán, Taylor Rogers
Chicago Cubs
Record: 60-41
Playoff odds: 97%
Biggest needs: Third base, starting pitching
The Cubs own the NL's best overall offense - except at third base, where they rank 30th in OPS. Top prospect Matt Shaw, who was handed the job out of spring training, has hit just two homers and sits only ahead of with Ke'Bryan Hayes for the worst wRC+ at his position (minimum 230 PAs). The Cubs' other internal options, which include Jon Berti, Vidal Bruján, Gage Workman, and Justin Turner, haven't fared much better. Finding an offensive upgrade at third should be the top priority for Chicago's front office. Starting pitching depth is a secondary concern the Cubs could address.
Potential targets: Eugenio Suárez, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Ryan McMahon, Yoán Moncada, Nolan Arenado, Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Seth Lugo, Mitch Keller, Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas
Houston Astros
Record: 59-42
Playoff odds: 95%
Biggest needs: Left-handed bats, third base
The Astros' machine keeps rolling, and incredibly, they're doing it with an almost entirely right-handed hitting lineup. Currently, Houston has two left-handed bats - outfielder Taylor Trammell and backup catcher César Salazar - on the 26-man roster. Much of this stems from the uncertainty surrounding Yordan Alvarez and his injured hand. With Alvarez's return far from a guarantee, general manager Dana Brown should push hard for lefty bats - preferably those who can play left field and/or first base - to help balance the lineup. The Astros also have a new need at third base after Isaac Paredes' hamstring injury. Houston could either add a third baseman via trade, or move Cam Smith back to his natural position and find a corner outfielder to cover right.
Potential targets: Mike Tauchman, Bryan Reynolds, Cedric Mullins, Ryan O'Hearn, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Josh Naylor, Taylor Ward, Nolan Arenado, Eugenio Suárez, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Yoán Moncada
Philadelphia Phillies
Record: 58-43
Playoff odds: 94%
Biggest needs: Outfield, bullpen
It just wouldn't be a Dave Dombrowski-run club without bullpen issues. The Jordan Romano signing has been a disaster, and José Alvarado won't be available for the playoffs because of his PED suspension. Signing veteran David Robertson was a start, but it's vital for a Phillies team facing high expectations to bring in more front-end relief help that won't collapse in October. On offense, the Phillies should look for bat-first outfielders, potentially in both left and center. It would be a nice bonus if those hitters were left-handed. Johan Rojas is a fine defensive outfielder, but he's better suited as a defensive replacement on this kind of team. The Phillies have a surplus of starting pitching, and this is a chance to use it - perhaps in a need-for-need deal - to make a significant outfield upgrade.
Potential targets: Emmanuel Clase, David Bednar, Dennis Santana, Kenley Jansen, Ryan Helsley, Cade Smith, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Harrison Bader, Cedric Mullins, Luis Robert Jr., Ryan O'Hearn, Taylor Ward, Mike Tauchman
Milwaukee Brewers
Record: 60-41
Playoff odds: 93%
Biggest needs: Outfield, power bats
As is now the norm, the red-hot Brewers are surprisingly pushing toward a playoff berth on the backs of their pitching staff. That's not to say Milwaukee's bats have been lethargic - on the contrary, the Brewers rank seventh in runs scored - but the team also sits 24th in home runs and doesn't have a regular position player with an OPS above .787. Andrew Vaughn was a nice find, but it's unreasonable to expect him to sustain the pace he's been on since joining the team in early July, so more is needed. With Sal Frelick now on the IL, there's an opening to add an impact bat in the outfield.
Potential targets: Cedric Mullins, Ryan O'Hearn, Harrison Bader, Taylor Ward, Luis Robert Jr., Adolis García, Marcell Ozuna
New York Yankees
Record: 56-45
Playoff odds: 92%
Biggest needs: Third base, bullpen, rotation depth
The hot corner remains New York's most conspicuous need now that DJ LeMahieu is gone and Jazz Chisholm Jr. is back at second base. There's no doubt that Brian Cashman is working the phones to land a true solution at third, whether it's a rental or someone who will be around for a few more years. Additional third-base possibilities for the Yankees might open up over the next week-plus as contenders separate themselves from pretenders. Getting Luke Weaver and Devin Williams some help in the bullpen should also be a priority for Cashman, and another depth starting option couldn't hurt.
Potential targets: Eugenio Suárez, Ryan McMahon, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Nolan Arenado, Yoán Moncada, Kenley Jansen, David Bednar, Caleb Ferguson, Dennis Santana, Kyle Finnegan, Hoby Milner, Ryan Helsley, Emmanuel Clase
Toronto Blue Jays
Record: 59-42
Playoff odds: 92%
Biggest needs: Power, rotation depth, bullpen
Injured position players Andrés Giménez, Anthony Santander, and Daulton Varsho are essentially deadline adds if and when they return. But they're not necessarily enough to fortify an offense that, while very good, has hit just 105 home runs this year. This lineup sorely needs an injection of power. Forget the position: Add the bat and worry about the rest later. As with other teams on this list, bullpen help is a must, but it's become even more urgent for Toronto with Yimi García's injury issues and inconsistency from Chad Green and Jeff Hoffman. Rotation depth would also be welcome.
Potential targets: Eugenio Suárez, Taylor Ward, Cedric Mullins, Harrison Bader, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Seth Lugo, Mitch Keller, Luis Severino, Dennis Santana, Emmanuel Clase, Emilio Pagán, Ryan Helsley, Kyle Finnegan, Cade Smith
New York Mets
Record: 58-44
Playoff odds: 89%
Biggest needs: Second base, third base, outfield, starting pitching
The Mets clearly need some help for the stretch run. The good news is that there's a chance they can fill both infield holes internally. Brett Baty's been hitting better lately, and if that continues, he can finally solve the team's third-base woes. Jeff McNeil can also slot in at second on a more regular basis. That leaves an injury-riddled rotation as their most glaring problem. The Mets absolutely have to land at least one starter, if not two, at the deadline. Another bat - ideally in the outfield given their incumbents, although they can worry about the positional fit later - would be welcomed too.
Potential targets: Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Luis Severino, Seth Lugo, Mitch Keller, Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, Sonny Gray, Eugenio Suárez, Yoán Moncada, Nolan Arenado, Taylor Ward, Ryan O'Hearn, Mike Tauchman, Adolis García
Seattle Mariners
Record: 54-47
Playoff odds: 75%
Biggest needs: Right field, first base, third base, power
As always with the Mariners, the pitching has been brilliant and the bats - with one very notable exception - have been underwhelming. Seattle's lineup has glaring holes in the outfield and first base that need to be filled if this team has any shot at October. This is the time for Jerry Dipoto to make use of his pitching surplus and land at least one, but ideally two, true impact bats.
Potential targets: Ryan O'Hearn, Carlos Santana, Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suárez, Mike Tauchman, Taylor Ward, Marcell Ozuna, Bryan Reynolds, Tommy Pham, Adolis García, Luis Robert Jr., Jarren Duran, Cedric Mullins, Harrison Bader
San Diego Padres
Record: 55-46
Playoff odds: 54%
Biggest needs: Left field, catcher
Left field has been a black hole for the Padres all season - and that's why Jarren Duran has been repeatedly linked to San Diego. With Michael King moving toward a return, the Padres could potentially part with some of their starters to land an outfielder like Duran who could finally shore up that left-field spot. They could stand to upgrade at catcher if something is available, too.
Potential targets: Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Mike Tauchman, Luis Robert Jr., Cedric Mullins, Ryan O'Hearn, Taylor Ward, Adolis García, Shea Langeliers, Sean Murphy, James McCann, Travis d'Arnaud, Jonah Heim
Boston Red Sox
Record: 54-49
Playoff odds: 38%
Biggest needs: Starting pitching, first base
The Red Sox have a surplus of outfielders they can use as trade assets to work on their most obvious issues. Starting pitching behind Garrett Crochet is their biggest area of concern, even with Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito pitching much better. A need-for-need trade involving Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu for a starter would go a long way as Boston tries to stay afloat in the AL East. A short-term solution at first base would also be helpful.
Potential targets: Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Mitch Keller, Luis Severino, Nick Martinez, Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Taijuan Walker, Carlos Santana, Ryan O'Hearn, Josh Naylor
Tampa Bay Rays
Record: 53-49
Playoff odds: 35%
Biggest needs: Outfield, catcher, bullpen
The Rays already made one move by grabbing reliever Bryan Baker from Baltimore. That's unlikely to be their last trade. On top of trying to add even more pitching, the Rays would benefit from catching and outfield upgrades that fit their budget. Finding a catcher may prove difficult based on who's selling, although as teams begin to fall out of contention over the next few weeks, more options could hit the market. Perhaps the Rays' talent pipeline could sway certain clubs to part with a backstop who wouldn't otherwise be available.
Potential targets: Jonah Heim, Kyle Higashioka, Shea Langeliers, Harrison Bader, Ryan O'Hearn, Mike Tauchman, Cedric Mullins, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Nick Martinez, Cade Smith, Emmanuel Clase, Ryan Helsley, Dennis Santana
San Francisco Giants
Record: 53-49
Playoff odds: 33%
Biggest needs: Offense, first base, starting pitching
Rafael Devers was supposed to inject life into the Giants' offense. So far, that hasn't happened. The Giants need more help if they're going to stay in the race. They can address their void at first base at this deadline, perhaps with a short-term solution to give Devers more time to continue learning the position; an extra outfielder wouldn't hurt, either. San Francisco also needs some additional starters behind Logan Webb and Robbie Ray - and that's only becoming more urgent the longer Justin Verlander struggles.
Potential targets: Josh Naylor, Carlos Santana, Ryan O'Hearn, Luis Robert Jr., Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Miles Mikolas, Nick Martinez, Luis Severino