The trade bubble's most interesting teams and players, and other observations

Starting Lineup is a collection of reporting, observations, and insights from the baseball beat.

Leading off ...

The Red Sox are perhaps the most interesting team to watch over the next month as the July 31 trade deadline approaches.

Owners of modest 23% playoff chances entering the weekend according to FanGraphs, they're likely to be sellers if they can't turn things around.

And even if they do improve those odds to a coin-flip chance over the next few weeks, they still may want to be opportunistic sellers and focus on 2026 and beyond.

After all, they enjoy the top young position-player core in the majors. Elite prospects Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, and Kristian Campbell debuted this season, and other young players like Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela are establishing themselves as quality regulars. Their window's just opening.

Players on short-term deals like Aroldis Chapman and Walker Buehler are obvious trade candidates should the Red Sox remain long shots, but Jarren Duran is the most interesting name among position players who could be acquired.

Duran's also not eligible for free agency until 2029, and has been a star-level performer over the last three seasons. He'd net a significant return and plays a position where Boston enjoys a surplus of talent.

Not only would Duran extract the best return among Boston's plausible trade candidates, a move would help alleviate a logjam. There's opportunity here.

No. 2: Other bubble teams

The Braves (27.3%), Diamondbacks (35.4%), Guardians (37.8%), Orioles (2.9%), Rangers (23.9%), and Royals (22%) are among other hopeful preseason contenders with under 40% playoff chances entering play this weekend.

The D-Backs rival the Red Sox as one of the more disappointing - and interesting - teams at the deadline. (They're also one of the most snakebitten, losing Corbin Burnes for this season and most likely next due to Tommy John surgery.)

Zac Gallen, a long-time fixture at the top of their rotation, could become one of the best deadline arms available. He's on an expiring deal and owns an excellent track record, though he's been uneven this season.

The Orioles' Zach Eflin is also on an expiring deal and will draw interest. Would the Royals be willing to move Seth Lugo to a team desperate for pitching? He has another year with $15 million left on his contract and is more of an innings eater than an ace.

The Rangers could move arms Tyler Mahle and Chris Martin (both are on expiring deals), though it’s unclear how willing - or able - they'd be in moving more expensive core veterans.

A fascinating player for the Rangers to place on the market would be Jacob deGrom. Always a health risk, and not quite back to who he was before surgery, deGrom still has a 2.12 ERA and 3.03 expected ERA. The complicating factors: two years and $75 million left on his deal after this season, and his full no-trade clause. But his underlying command and stuff scores wouldn't be rivaled by any other available arm.

Other trade candidates with expiring deals from these bubble teams include Carlos Santana, Josh Naylor, and Marcell Ozuna.

No. 3: Alcántara turning a corner?

In a market starved for impact pitching, Sandy Alcántara remains one of the more interesting trade candidates.

His trade value declined dramatically after an awful start to the season, but he turned in his best performance to date Tuesday when he blanked the Pirates over six innings. While it was lowly Pittsburgh, there was progress in regard to what's ailing his performance.

His command's been a tick off, as we documented, which is typical for those returning from Tommy John surgery.

He's particularly struggling with his slider command (79 Command+ score, with 100 being average) compared to his career mark (105 Command+ score). But Alcántara's begun to shelve that pitch in favor of a slower curveball. His overall command score has begun to climb from a standard deviation below the MLB average earlier this season (88) to a mark approaching it (96). If a team believes he's turning things around, he could come at a discount.

No. 4: Perfect match

If Duran's made available, the Phillies should be a top suitor. Philadelphia ranks 25th in fWAR (0.5) among its combined outfielders.

Moreover, Zack Wheeler, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryce Harper aren't getting any younger. Schwarber's a free agent after the season, while Harper's been dealing with a balky right wrist since last year.

Philly won't trade Andrew Painter, who some in the organization liken to a young Justin Verlander, but must lengthen its lineup to compete with the Dodgers and Mets in October.

No. 5: False alarm

It appears there was no sudden skills-related issue behind Jesús Luzardo allowing 20 combined runs over two starts prior to his Wednesday outing.

Always check that glove position, pitchers.

No. 6: Mets’ pitching lab

The most important investment Steve Cohen made in the Mets isn't Juan Soto; it's the pitching lab and coaching acumen installed by GM David Stearns.

The Mets are getting a ton of value out of their staff. They're tied for third in pitching fWAR without an overwhelming, proven ace. For example: David Peterson (2.49 ERA, 1.8 fWAR) threw only the seventh shutout in MLB this season this week, continuing his unexpected performance.

The Mets have invested big money in offense but not so much on the pitching side, at least in relative terms. They've spent 79% of their $323 million on position players and 21% on pitchers. And their third-ranked pitching staff is outpacing their fifth-ranked position player group.

While they arguably need a legit ace to navigate October - imagine deGrom coming out to "Simple Man" again in Flushing - it's a macro-level strategy that holds merit.

No. 7: Pitching scarcer than ever

Pitching injuries aren't going anywhere but they're typically concentrated during the spring. This season, there's been a rash of significant arm injuries as summer approaches.

Burnes - one of the most durable arms in the game - is done for the season. Pablo López, Minnesota's best arm, is out for most of the remainder of the season. Royals ace Cole Ragans (rotator cuff strain) is out indefinitely, and so is Aaron Nola after a rib-injury setback.

For so many teams to lose top-of-the rotation arms two and a half months into a season is unusual. And with another arms shortage, a premium will be placed on available pitching later this summer.

No. 8: It takes a village in Sacramento

It's surprising to see the A's struggling to such a degree - 10-29 since May 1 - given they have a number of promising young players in Jacob Wilson, Lawrence Butler, Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, and Mason Miller.

The struggle is a reminder: it takes a lot of good players to field a solid baseball team.

The team's awful defense hasn't helped, and it remains poor even with the addition of Denzel Clarke, who owns an incredible highlight reel a few weeks into his major-league career. He can already make a claim as the game's best defensive center fielder - he's recorded an absurd eight outs above average in his first 16 games. But the A's still need more talent.

No. 9: Judgian

How much can we truly expect Aaron Judge to regress?

Yes, his 245 wRC+, .392 average, and .776 slugging marks all seem too lofty to sustain, but this is someone who's posted a 208 wRC+ since 2022.

The next-best players in that span are Shohei Ohtani and Yordan Alvarez, tied at 168.

Even if Judge regresses to his three-year average, he could win the AL Triple Crown.

If he somehow sustains his 245 wRC+ mark, it'll be the best single-season figure in history. Barry Bonds owns the best existing marks, 244 and 235, set in 2002 and 2001, and Babe Ruth's 234 in 1920 ranks third.

Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.