Skip to content

Over/under: Breaking down 2024 PECOTA projections for every MLB team

Getty Images

Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projections for the 2024 season this week. Although there are still a number of prominent free agents available, it's time to see how all 30 teams stack up.

Here, we take a deeper dive into how each team's moves this offseason might impact their prospects for success this year.

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

PECOTA is high on the Yankees after they acquired star outfielder Juan Soto to bolster an aging lineup that struggled to stay healthy in 2023. New York missed the postseason for the first time since 2016, stumbling to an 82-80 record. Even with the additions of Soto and Alex Verdugo in the outfield, as well as a rotation boost in the form of Marcus Stroman, it's still hard to see how this current Yankees roster is 12 wins better than a season ago.

The Blue Jays' offseason has been rather underwhelming. PECOTA is still reasonably high on the current roster, and the Jays are counting on some internal improvements from the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, and Daulton Varsho after disappointing offensive campaigns. The rotation and bullpen are still among the American League's best.

The PECOTA model is forecasting a precipitous decline in Baltimore after the Orioles surprisingly won the division with 101 wins. Progression and the development of young talent aren't always linear, but it's hard to imagine Adley Rutschman or Gunnar Henderson not taking another step forward. The acquisition of Corbin Burnes was a much-needed upgrade to a rotation that outperformed expectations last season. Although there are some concerns in the bullpen, it's hard to see a scenario where the O's finish under 90 wins.

The Rays seem to outperform expectations every year, but 2024 could be tough. The lineup is fairly top-heavy, and the rotation will be hard-pressed to weather the absences of Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Jeffrey Springs. This could be the year where the bottom falls out a little bit in Tampa Bay.

Red Sox fans are growing increasingly disillusioned after another lackluster offseason. The lineup still features a number of strong offensive performers, but the rotation and bullpen look to be major areas of weakness. A lot will need to go right in Boston for the Red Sox to exceed expectations in the ultra-competitive AL East.

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

Some financial uncertainty put the Twins in a precarious position this offseason. Minnesota signed Carlos Santana and traded Jorge Polanco. The rotation is in worse shape than in 2023 with Kenta Maeda and Sonny Gray signing elsewhere. The Twins will need Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa to stay healthy and productive if they hope to build off last season.

The Guardians flopped in 2023 after winning the division the year prior. The recipe for success in Cleveland remains the same: pitching and defense, with timely hitting mixed in. The rotation of Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Logan Allen is one of the AL's deepest and most talented.

The Tigers finished 2023 on a high, posting a 17-10 record in September. Detroit will look to build on that momentum in 2024 with an intriguing lineup featuring a number of homegrown players who flashed potential last season. The biggest reason for optimism in the Motor City is a healthy Tarik Skubal leading a rotation with a blend of veterans and younger arms.

PECOTA is relatively high on the Royals, forecasting a 14-win improvement. Kansas City was surprisingly active this offseason, bringing in a pair of veterans in the rotation and signing star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to a long-term extension. The Royals are probably at least another year away from contending but should improve by 10-plus wins.

The White Sox shuffled the roster in the offseason, but it's hard to look at the current team and identify any additions that'll significantly improve the club's prospects in 2024. This is a club that looks ticketed for a second consecutive 100-loss season.

Carmen Mandato / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Houston didn't tinker too much this offseason but brought in one of the game's premier relievers in Josh Hader. This is still the best team in the division, but its focus is more geared toward peaking in October and less about racking up regular-season victories with an aging roster. The Astros should win at least 90 games, but 95 is a pretty lofty number.

PECOTA isn't too high on the defending World Series champions, which could be due in part to a battered rotation. Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Mahle are all expected to miss several months to start the season, leaving Texas with a patchwork rotation. The lineup remains as deep as any in baseball, however. Even with some question marks on the pitching side, this still looks like a group that's pushing for 90 victories.

The Mariners' lineup will look a lot different in 2024 with four new additions, highlighted by Jorge Polanco and Mitch Garver. If Julio Rodríguez can put together an MVP-caliber season, the Mariners will be a major threat. The rotation remains one of baseball's best.

Things get pretty bleak when you lose a player like Ohtani. There isn't a whole lot to be excited about for the Angels, and it might only be a matter of time before Mike Trout trade rumors begin in earnest.

The A's do have some players that appear to be building blocks, like Zack Gelof, but the conversation will likely be focused more on the off-field narrative than what happens between the lines in 2024.

Dylan Buell / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The Braves appear poised to run away with a seventh straight NL East crown as baseball's deepest team. Chris Sale's health will be a fascinating subplot to monitor. If Sale can remain healthy and productive, the Braves will have a postseason rotation featuring Sale, Spencer Strider, and Max Fried.

PECOTA is surprisingly low on a Phillies team that returns the core that made consecutive NLCS appearances. A full season of Bryce Harper and a more comfortable Trea Turner should go a long way to helping Philadelphia soar past 84 wins.

Things have certainly changed in Queens over the last 12 months. PECOTA pegged the 2023 Mets for 94 wins and has them for 11 fewer this season. It appears to be a transition campaign, but there's still more than enough talent on the roster to contend for a wild-card spot.

The Marlins snuck into the postseason in 2023 despite a minus-57 run differential. It's hard to envision everything breaking right again in 2024 for a team that'll be without Sandy Alcantara and need to replace Jorge Soler's 36 home runs.

PECOTA is expecting major regression for the Nationals after a 71-victory performance. Washington may have a hard time equaling that win total in 2024, but this still looks like a roster capable of avoiding 100 losses.

Dilip Vishwanat / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The Cardinals focused on improving the rotation in the offseason, adding Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson. Continued development from Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker will go a long way to helping St. Louis rebound from a bitterly disappointing 2023 campaign.

The Cubs outperformed PECOTA projections in each of the past two seasons and are a decent bet to do so again. Chicago's prospects for success would look a whole lot different if the team can reunite with free agent Cody Bellinger after he emerged as the club's best offensive player last season.

The Brewers are still in good shape in terms of position players, but the subtraction of Corbin Burnes from the rotation leaves that group looking thin. It's also worth considering how much of an impact losing Craig Counsell will have on the team.

The Reds took a nice step forward in 2023 thanks to an emerging stable of young talent. Cincinnati appears to be knocking on the door of winning the division but will need more consistency from Elly De La Cruz and good health from pitchers like Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo to take that next step.

It looks like seeds have been planted for the next great Pirates team. A healthy and productive Oneil Cruz would give Pittsburgh more juice as the Pirates look to win 80 games for only the second time since 2015.

Rob Leiter / Major League Baseball / Getty

The Dodgers won 100 games last season when many were expecting a step back with an eye toward 2024. Well, 2024 has arrived and the Dodgers certainly loaded up. Armed with Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Tyler Glasnow, among others, Los Angeles could be poised to threaten the 2001 Seattle Mariners' MLB record of 116 wins in a season if the team remains healthy.

The NL Champions had a very strong offseason. The D-Backs added Eduardo Rodriguez to bolster the rotation and brought in veteran sluggers Joc Pederson and Eugenio Suárez to bolster the lineup. Arizona looks like a team that should be a postseason contender once again.

The Giants added Korean star Jung Hoo Lee but still need at least one other potent bat to improve a lineup that struggled to score runs last season. San Francisco is betting that Jordan Hicks can convert into a starting pitcher. The team will be left in a precarious position if that gamble doesn't pay off.

The loss of Juan Soto certainly hurts the Padres, but it's hard to see them struggling as much as they did in extra innings and one-run games after posting an 11-35 record in those situations last season.

The Rockies might be baseball's worst team. There just isn't much to get excited about in Denver right now. Maybe Nolan Jones and Ezequiel Tovar can continue to develop and emerge as franchise pillars.

Daily Newsletter

Get the latest trending sports news daily in your inbox